Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Why Is Trump Not Restarting War? – HotAir

May 5, 2026
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Why Is Trump Not Restarting War? – HotAir
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To many of us, it is a mystery why Trump is not pounding the crap out of Iran after its numerous violations of the ever-so-shaky “cease-fire,” in which the US is mostly ceasing, and Iran appears to be happy to fire. 





Seen in isolation, it seems obvious that Trump should be unleashing hellfire on Iran for any number of good reasons, ranging from the ever-perilous “looking weak” to the dangers of prolonging an economic crisis that is hurting Americans, our allies, and the political prospects of Republicans in the midterms. 

As Ed wrote earlier, General Caine has made it clear that Iran is not just keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed to civilian traffic, but it is actively shooting at American naval vessels and firing at our allies. Trump has talked about obliterating the country if it did so, but when challenged, his responses appear to be Obamaesque. 

🚨 NOW: Gen. Dan Caine CONFIRMS that Iran has attacked US forces “more than 10 TIMES” since the ceasefire was announced

Iran is also lashing out in panic mode at the UAE

“Iran has fired at commercial vessels 9 times and seized 2 container ships and they’ve attacked us forces more than 10 times — all below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point.”

“As a result of Iran’s indiscriminate attacks across the region, there are currently 22,500 mariners embarked on more than 1,550 commercial vessels trapped in the Arabian Gulf, unable to transit.”

“In addition to shipping, Iran has continued to deliberately attack its neighbors. Just yesterday, Iran attacked Oman once and the UAE three times, including an attack on Fujairah oil terminal, which was successfully defeated.”

“They also launched cruise missiles, drones, small boats at U.S. forces, defending commercial shipping in the straits.”

“And United States Navy MH-60 helicopters and Army AH-64 Apache helicopters successfully defeated those threats. Thus far, today is quieter.”





The United Arab Emirates is itching to go to war with Iran and has vowed a kinetic revenge for attacks against its territory. Hundreds of ships and thousands of sailors are stranded in the Gulf, creating a humanitarian crisis and clogging the world economy. 

For a man not known for his restraint, Trump sure seems exceptionally, almost irrationally restrained. 

Trump is talking tough but appears weak. 

We can only speculate as to why Trump is acting uncharacteristically. Is it because he is playing 4-D chess, or perhaps because he lost his will? Or, as I suspect, are there unseen variables that are leading him to act in a way that, from the outside and seen in isolation, appear weak and/or irrational?





I think, and this is pure speculation, that there are multiple factors at work leading Trump to act so restrained. 

First, and perhaps foremost, is the fact that Iran’s government is highly fractured, with the IRGC on top right now, but perhaps in a perilous position. 

The purely civilian government leaders are frantic to cut a deal with the United States because they see the war as having been a disaster for the country, and a resumption of hostilities leading to an economic apocalypse. The country’s finances are in full collapse, the oil industry is at serious risk, and the population is ripe for yet another outbreak of mass protest and violence. 

The IRGC sees the same thing and wants a resumption of the war, which it sees as its only opportunity to end the pain while remaining in power. They, as much as the president, can do the math, and are betting that they can retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and replace some of their lost oil revenue with tolls. They also hope, I assume, that bombs dropping will stiffen the spines of people who might not tolerate the suffering without the context of the war, but might back the regime in defiance of outside attacks. 





There may be special operations and other support for internal enemies of the regime, and perhaps Trump wants to have a multi-pronged attack before striking back. 

Or, perhaps not. 

Then there is the China variable. 

Trump and Xi will meet later this month, and both countries are jockeying for advantage ahead of the negotiations culminating at the summit. Trump is upping sanctions on Chinese refineries that use Iranian oil, and China is meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, who has been on a whirlwind diplomatic tour of Iran’s allies. 

There has been a lot of speculation that the China summit is dictating the resumption of the war, and US relations with China are not exactly unimportant to the United States. Not only are our economies intimately connected (for now), but the Taiwan issue is even larger than the Iranian war should things get kinetic there. And unnoticed because of the Iran war, Japan, likely in coordination with the United States, is putting enormous pressure on China. 





Japan’s new prime minister said one sentence about Taiwan — and according to a former Japanese general, China is now being forced to tear up its entire invasion playbook.

Sanae Takaichi told the Diet that if China used warships and force to blockade Taiwan, Japan could classify it as a “survival-threatening situation.”

In plain English: Japan would treat it as an act of war.

Last Friday in Tokyo, retired Lt. Gen. Kiyoshi Ogawa — former commander of Japan’s entire Western Army — explained exactly why Beijing didn’t see this coming.

China’s plan was always to take Taiwan in three phases.

Phase one: blockade the island, run psychological warfare, and choke it into surrender before American forces could arrive.

No missiles. No invasion. No witnesses.

Takaichi just made phase one impossible.

China is very aware of Japan’s moves, calling them a threat to regional stability (pot calling kettle black), and also noting that Japan has the capacity to rapidly build nuclear weapons at scale. China’s PLA Daily has noted that Japan has enough plutonium to make over 5000 nuclear weapons, and it could do so quite rapidly. They claim that this is a prelude to Japanese aggression, but that is rhetoric. They know that it changes the deterrence calculus in the entire region. 





So China and Trump are making chess moves against each other, and given China’s alliance with Iran, it could be that Trump’s actions in the Gulf are influenced by his upcoming summit, and that he is holding the Iran issue as a card in the higher-stakes game. 

Who knows? What may look like a strategic weakness may signal something else in an arena we are not looking at. Is Trump pushing China to rein in its ally? Is he making calculations or side deals with internal forces in Iran?

Or is he just worried about taking casualties in a war he judges not worth fighting anymore? His critics will no doubt scream TACO! But perhaps there is much more going on here. 

I think the latter, but have no hard evidence to prove it. 


Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats try desperately to stop it.  

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