Labour is set to see its Muslim vote drain away at the local elections, a damning new poll has found.
Three in five British Muslim voters would consider backing a pro-Gaza independent to prevent Labour winning, while almost half will consider backing Zack Polanski’s Greens if it sends a message to the Government.
Fresh findings by the Policy Exchange think tank reveal that in key battleground seats, anti-Labour sentiment has surged among Muslims, fuelled by anger at the handling of the Israel/Hamas war.
Keir Starmer sparked huge controversy after he appeared to say Israel had the ‘right’ to cut off water and energy to Gaza, something he later insisted was not his position.
His party has seen previously staunch support from Muslims collapse since 2019, when it won 80% of the community’s votes under Jeremy Corbyn.
Ahead of the 2024 General Election, the level of backing was estimated to have fallen 20% nationally and even further in some constituencies.
February’s Gorton and Denton by-election now appears to have been a crucial warning served to Labour, in an area with a 28% Muslim population.
Under Mr Polanski’s avowedly pro-Palestine leadership, the Green Party was accused of running a cynical ‘sectarian’ campaign around the issue of the war in Gaza, but surged to a surprise victory on a 26.4% swing.
Labour’s support has collapsed among Muslim voters since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023
Around half of Muslims in polled areas are willing to back the Greens to defeat Labour, rising to 60% saying the same of Gaza-independent candidates
The Greens are now hoovering up 27% support among Muslim voters, 10 points higher than the party’s polling average at the general election.
And the Policy Exchange research appears to suggest that what Donald Trump branded ‘pandering’ by Keir Starmer towards Muslim voters – by refusing to join the US-Israeli attacks on Iran – has failed to reverse the decline in support.
Policy Exchange’s poll also raises further troubling questions about the integrity of Britain’s democratic process, revealing that one-seventh of Muslims in the polled areas have had their postal vote collected by a campaigner, a practice made illegal in 2022, nearly twice as high as voters in general.
The opinion survey asked more than 1,000 British Muslim voters across Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, as well as parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire and Merseyside.
The think tank reports that a huge rift has opened up between Muslim voters and the rest of the population, with them five times more likely than the average Briton to say that their vote this Thursday will be determined by the Israel-Gaza conflict.
One-in-four Muslim voters say this will determine who they back at the ballot box, compared to just 5% of the rest of the population.
The survey also found that 25% of British Muslims have a favourable view of Hamas, compared to 28% who hold an unfavourable one.
Support for Labour among Muslims had already fallen to 60% by the 2024 General Election
Muslim support for Labour hit a recent high of 80% under Jeremy Corbyn at the 2019 General Election
Similarly more British Muslims hold a favourable opinion of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps than an unfavourable one, despite the expectation it will soon be proscribed as a terrorist organisation by Britain.
One-in-four Muslim voters also said they believe that violence can be a legitimate response to someone burning the Qur’an, or for showing or creating an image of Muhammad, over 2.5 times higher than the public at large.
The think tank’s findings shed further light on views towards the Jewish community among British Muslims, with 45% of those polled saying they believe Jews have too much power over the media, and 39% saying they have too much power over Parliament.
Some 21% admitted that they feel ‘unfavourably’ towards Jewish people, compared to 11% of the wider electorate.
Dr Rakib Ehsan, lead author the Policy Exchange’s new report ‘Understanding Islamopopulism’, warned that the data reveals that Labour is set to be ‘punished’ by Muslim voters.
He explained: ‘The data shows that the Labour Party is on course to be further punished by British Muslims in the English local elections, with a likely surge of Muslim independent candidates being elected in cities such as Birmingham and towns like Blackburn, along with a number of London boroughs including Newham.
‘The fresh polling also reveals that there are fundamental differences between the wider general population and British Muslims living in parts of England where problems over integration continue to persist. This is especially stark over the extent to which Israel-Gaza is prioritised as an issue when deciding how to vote in the forthcoming local elections.
‘Among the British Muslims living in the polled areas, there are worrying levels of antisemitic conspiratorial beliefs and support for the criminalisation of blasphemy. The findings show that the UK is far from being a stable multi-faith democracy.’
Reacting to the findings, Conservative Party chairman Kevin Hollinrake told the Daily Mail: ‘This research is further evidence of the worrying rise of separatism and sectarianism in our society.
‘As Kemi Badenoch has said, identity politics is a dead end, whatever form it takes. It divides people rather than bringing them together.
‘A cohesive culture that holds together must be built on common values, not special grievance and group pressure.’
