With a tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran mostly holding despite the failure of talks this past weekend in Pakistan, the Iran war so far has left Gulf Arab states with stronger ties with regional partners – but not with Israel.
While the conflict has not led Gulf states to abandon their security partnership with America, the constant barrage of Iranian missiles and drones has driven them to strengthen alliances elsewhere to boost their domestic military industry and air defenses.
The war has forced Gulf states to put aside differences and band together – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, for example – as they have tightened ties with Pakistan, Turkey, and Ukraine.
Why We Wrote This
Even before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, launched against Gulf Arabs’ advice, sentiment in the region toward Israel was souring over its war in Gaza and policies in the West Bank. But distrust has deepened with the perception Israel instigated the war, and amid growing concerns over Israel’s expanding power.
Yet, coming under fire from shared adversary Iran has not driven the Gulf states to turn to Israel.
Instead, the conflict has sown deeper distrust and exasperation in Gulf capitals toward an Israel they see as expanding its military reach and placing their own countries and economies at risk, Gulf officials and observers say.
Gulf states now view Israel as a source of instability, driven by a far-right government whose military operations subject Arab states to crossfire, making them less safe.
Yet the distrust extends further: In many Gulf capitals, the war has cemented a view of Israel as a would-be hegemon, another non-Arab state looking to extend its control and influence over Arab lands, not too dissimilar from Iran.
“Both Israel and Iran are not acting in a way that supports a region of cooperation, stability, and shared prosperity,” a senior Saudi official, who asked to remain unnamed, tells The Monitor. “We are ready to extend the hand of regional integration and cooperation, but Israel does not seem ready to take it. Instead, it is offering only instability.”
Reasons for mistrust
Early hopes in the U.S. and Israel that a broader anti-Iran coalition would emerge, with some Gulf states joining them in the war, did not materialize.
Articles in the Israeli press that Arab states suspect were planted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office – claiming falsely that states such as the UAE or Saudi Arabia had joined the conflict – only angered Gulf states, who saw Israel trying to force them to war.
That added to Gulf states’ bitterness over the perception that Israel, despite their warnings over regional and global consequences, incited the conflict, persuading U.S. President Donald Trump to launch a nearly six-week war that has only strengthened Iran’s position.
There is a sense in many Gulf capitals that “Israel is the main culprit; they got us to where we are today,” says Bader al-Saif, an analyst and assistant professor of history at Kuwait University. “Yes, the decision to go to war was an American decision, but it has been through the prodding of Netanyahu at the same time.”
This resentment was reportedly hardened by the way in which Israel conducted its war on Iran: striking Iranian infrastructure and prompting Iran to strike Gulf Arab infrastructure in response.
In one exchange, Israeli forces struck Iran’s gas fields, leading Iran to launch a devastating attack on Qatar’s gas fields, taking off-line 18% of Qatar’s gas production, potentially for the next five years.
“Israel has been gambling with Arab lives, prosperity, and infrastructure. In that scenario, Israel feels like it has nothing to lose,” says a second Gulf official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media. “We have no say or control over Israel’s wars, but we pay the price.”
Distrust had already built up over Israel’s war in Gaza and the actions of the far-right Israeli coalition, which has egged on an expansion of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank.
The ongoing Israeli occupation in southern Syria, and a refusal by Mr. Netanyahu to reach an agreement with the new Syrian government, despite intensive Gulf mediation, added to prewar frustration.
Now, this distrust has evolved into what some Gulf officials see as a threat to their national security.
“You cannot bulldoze your way into international relations, if they want to build relations with countries in the region, they can’t do it by doing what they are doing,” notes Mr. al-Saif.
Rival or partner?
A deeper fear remains among some Gulf officials that Israel, like Iran, aspires to regional dominance.
Stoking these fears are comments from Israeli officials, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a Netanyahu rival, stating that after Iran, Israel should seek to weaken Turkey.
Mr. Bennett even labeled Turkey “the new Iran” – a sentiment shared by other Israeli politicians and pundits – claiming that Turkey and Qatar represent a “hostile Sunni axis” threatening to encircle Israel.
Mr. Netanyahu released a video statement on Saturday, sharply critical of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
“Israel under my leadership will continue to fight Iran’s terror regime and its proxies, unlike Erdoğan, who accommodates them and massacred his own Kurdish citizens,” the prime minister said.
“After Iran and Turkey, there is only a matter of time before Israel turns its sights on Arab Gulf states,” says a Saudi insider close to decision-makers. Gulf governments sense a “rivalry” and “resentment” from Israeli officials over the influence and good ties Gulf Arab states enjoy with the Trump administration, the insider says.
Israel and multiple U.S. administrations had long sought to encourage normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Gulf region’s largest and most powerful country.
Yet, instead, through the conflict, Saudi Arabia deepened its defense pact with Pakistan. Riyadh is finalizing a security pact with Turkey, under which Saudi Arabia will take advantage of Turkish military technology and know-how to boost its own domestic defense industry and drone production.
There are diverse opinions in the region over how to engage Israel.
The UAE retains security ties with Israel, though the extent of current cooperation is unclear. Bahrain, too, retains relations with Israel.
At a Council on Foreign Relations event in March, Anwar Gargash, an adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, predicted that “Iran’s full-throttle attack on the Gulf states will actually strengthen the Israeli role in the Gulf” and not diminish it, saying he expected more channels of dialogue to open.
Yet additional channels with Israel have not materialized during the war, multiple official Gulf sources say.
Given the “disastrous end” to the conflict, normalizing ties with Israel is increasingly seen in the Gulf as a “liability, not an asset,” the second Gulf official said.
Regional ambitions
Gulf citizens, too, say they are wary of Israel’s regional ambitions.
“This war has been between two expansionist powers: Israel and Iran,” says Khalid Mohamed, a Riyadh driver. “Israel wants to expand its territory, and Iran wants to extend its influence and power over the Arab world. And here in Saudi we are stuck in the middle.”
“The Israelis plan ahead – years in advance – [and] they want dominance, and don’t want a single rival in the region. Today, they want to get rid of Iran. Tomorrow, their sights are already set on Turkey. After that, we are afraid it is us.”
“Once we are finished with Iran in the region, we need to focus on Israel,” says Ibrahim, a Saudi university student, saying Gulf states should act as a bulwark against expanding Israeli military reach.
The senior Saudi official stressed that despite the distrust, Gulf states seek a “regional integration that includes Israel. But this can only happen with a Palestinian state and Palestinian integration as well,” which Mr. Netanyahu and the majority of Israeli political parties oppose.
With talks between Iran and the U.S. still possible, Gulf states wish for the region to emerge from the conflict with neither Iran nor Israel ascendant.
“For the Gulf,” notes Mr. al-Saif, the Kuwaiti analyst, “having a tense balance of power in which Israel and Iran are watching and testing one another gives us [the chance] to get to a place where we can vie for a leadership role.”
