Airlines have cut two million seats from May’s schedules within the past two weeks as concerns build that the Iran war could cut jet fuel supplies to ‘critically low levels’.
The total number of seats available across all carriers this month fell from 132,619,704 in mid April to 130,674,864 in late April, according to analytics firm Cirium.
The number of flights fell by more than 13,000 over the same period – from 859,167 to 846,162.
Gulf airlines such as Qatar, Etihad and Emirates have been worst hit by Middle East airspace closures and airport disruption since the conflict began on February 28, as well as by rising fuel costs.
German carrier Lufthansa had the most seat cancellations after cutting 20,000 flights between May and October, with Air China axing almost 500,000 including internal services, the Financial Times reported.
European operators Air France-KLM and SAS have also cut schedules in recent weeks, while US airline Spirit has collapsed, which it blamed on rising oil prices.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has warned rivals that Europe’s biggest airlines are now ‘desperately’ searching for flights to cancel and are expected to do so within weeks.
It comes as a fragile truce in the Middle East remains under strain after the US and Iran exchanged fire in the Gulf in the tussle over the Strait of Hormuz, via which 20 per cent of global crude supply passes.
Passengers for international flights at Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport in Thailandon Monday
Planes on the ground at London Heathrow Airport’s Terminal Five on Sunday
The US military claimed that it had destroyed six Iranian small boats on Monday as well as cruise missiles and drones, after President Donald Trump sent the US Navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign dubbed ‘Project Freedom’.
The average global jet fuel price increased for the first time in a month last week to $181 (£134) per barrel, according to International Air Transport Association data.
This 1 per cent week-on-week rise followed three consecutive weeks of decline after a peak of $209 (£155) at the start of April – up from $99 (£73) at the end of February.
Meanwhile, investment bank Goldman Sachs warned Britain is particularly vulnerable to jet fuel shortages amid a rationing risk as supplies could fall to ‘critically low levels’.
A note seen by The Times claimed the European jet fuel supply was facing ‘extreme tightness’ because of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure – with the UK ‘most exposed’ to the crisis because of high reliance on imports, poor refining capacity and low stocks.
Goldman Sachs said: ‘The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer.
‘As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.’
Meanwhile, Britain now has only four operating oil refineries – Fawley in Hampshire, Stanlow in Cheshire, Humber in Lincolnshire and Pembroke in Wales – after the closure of Grangemouth in Scotland in April 2025 and Lindsey in Lincolnshire last August.
Several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires and an oil port in the UAE, which hosts a large US military base, was set ablaze by Iranian missiles.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively closed the strait with threats of mines, drones, missiles and fast attack craft, while the US has responded by blockading Iranian ports.
The UK Government has now introduced a temporary rule change allowing airlines to group passengers from different flights together on to fewer planes as part of plans to save fuel.
This could see passengers moved from the service they originally booked to a similar one in a bid to reduce the amount of wasted fuel from flying planes that have not sold out and might have otherwise been cancelled.
When asked about two million flights being axed in May, the Prime Minister’s spokesman referred to Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander’s announcement earlier this week.
He added that she had acted to allow airlines to consolidate routes out of the UK to ensure ‘fewer surprises for people planning their holidays’.
‘She also spoke about contingency planning. As you would expect that work continues … we are very clear that the impact of the conflict in Iran has a direct bearing on the UK’s economic situation and that is why we continue to push for a lasting peace in the region,’ he said.
It comes after the European Commission warned that airlines and member countries should prepare for all scenarios as uncertainty continues over supplies.
Spokesman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told a briefing in Brussels: ‘I don’t think anyone knows how long this situation will last, so the best we can do and the most effective thing that we can do – and that we are doing – is to prepare for all eventualities.’
