Russia has been setting new records in its war against Ukraine this week, one-upping itself day after day for the volume of exploding drones and missiles in its barrages.
This includes decoys, too, sent by Kremlin strategists to further strain Ukraine’s beleaguered missile defense systems.
These increasingly punishing attacks – in June, Russia launched nearly twice as many missiles than in May – reportedly helped convince President Donald Trump to reverse a Pentagon decision earlier this week that would have at least temporarily halted U.S. military aid to the war-torn country.
Why We Wrote This
It’s been a roller coaster week for Ukraine, with U.S. military aid first paused, then reinstated. The shifts follow President Donald Trump’s increasingly frosty signals to Russian President Vladimir Putin about his intransigence over peace efforts.
This step was quickly hailed by Ukraine supporters as not only merciful but also sensible for a president who prides himself on his negotiating skills. Mr. Trump has been clear that he wants this war to end. But by signaling for months that he was keen to cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the president was also undermining his own position, some analysts say. Now, the U.S. president looks to be sharpening his stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Mr. Putin has had little incentive to negotiate, “because from his point of view, he’s winning,” says retired Col. Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I think Trump may have recognized this.”
This intransigence on Mr. Putin’s part has given Mr. Trump the growing sense that he is being “played,” as a top U.S. official puts it, leading to an increasingly fractured relationship between the two world leaders.
“He’s very nice to us all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless,” Mr. Trump said Tuesday. “I’m not happy with Putin. I can tell you that much right now, because he’s killing a lot of people.”
Whether the president’s frustration with Mr. Putin leads to a lasting turnaround in U.S. policy toward Ukraine remains to be seen, analysts say. In the meantime, it’s clear that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is working hard to capitalize on the developing rift between the two world leaders by making overtures of his own to the Trump administration.
Still, many of Mr. Trump’s close advisers see more pressing threats to the United States emanating from Asia, and would prefer to pivot U.S. attention and resources in that direction.
European officials, well aware of this, are stepping up their own support for Ukraine as it braces for what the U.S. may or may not do. The question in the months to come is whether it will be enough to provide a steady stream of aid to fill the considerable defensive gaps that remain.
Piroschka Van De Wouw/Reuters
Trump’s shifting position
A number of European officials admitted to being moved recently by an exchange between Myroslava Petsa, a Ukrainian journalist, and Mr. Trump in which they detected an emotion they hadn’t previously associated with America’s president: compassion.
Ms. Petsa asked at a NATO summit late last month whether the president would consider selling her country the U.S. Patriot missile systems critical to its defense against Russia. Moscow “has been pounding Ukraine really heavily right now,” Ms. Petsa told the president. This includes Kyiv, which had previously been more insulated to the unrelenting attacks cities further east had experienced.
Mr. Trump, noticing that Ms. Petsa was emotional, asked whether her husband is a soldier. She said he is fighting while she and her children have evacuated to Poland.
“That’s rough stuff,” Mr. Trump said. As for air defense systems, he added, “We’re going to see if we can make some available. They’re very hard to get.” He told her to say hello to her husband.
The exchange created a stir, prompting some officials to wonder whether Mr. Trump would change his historic position against U.S. military aid for Ukraine.
Last week, that possibility seemed far-fetched as the Pentagon announced a pause in weapons deliveries to Kyiv. “We can’t give weapons to everybody all around the world,” Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said during a press briefing July 2.
But as President Trump reversed his administration’s course this week, overruling his own defense officials, he seemed to echo Ms. Petsa’s concerns and her words. “We are going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” he said.
“They’re getting hit very hard right now.”
Reaction in Russia and Ukraine
The Kremlin gloated when it first got news of the Pentagon’s halt in arms sales to Ukraine, saying it would bring a quicker end to the conflict, presumably by forcing Kyiv to accept unfavorable Russian terms in the face of bombardments.
As Mr. Trump has expressed irritation that ending the war in Ukraine is harder than he thought it would be, Mr. Putin has been, from the administration’s perspective, off-puttingly sanguine.
“That’s how it is,” Mr. Putin said at a news conference in Belarus late last month. “Real life is always more complicated than the idea of it.”
Mr. Zelenskyy is endeavoring to capitalize on Mr. Trump’s frustration with Mr. Putin, in large part by changing tack in his own dealings with the U.S.
Mauro Scrobogna/LaPresse/AP
For starters, Mr. Zelenskyy wore a dark suit jacket to his most recent meeting with Mr. Trump – a clear response to the critiques of his camouflage attire by the president and Vice President JD Vance during Mr. Zelenskyy’s February White House visit.
The Ukrainian version of Elle magazine called it “visual diplomacy.”
More substantively, Mr. Zelenskyy’s administration confirmed Wednesday that it is replacing Oksana Markarova, Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.S., who has been criticized by Republicans as developing too-close ties to the Democratic party during her four years on the job.
Equally important from the perspective of analysts, instead of requesting U.S. weapons donations, Mr. Zelenskyy is now asking Mr. Trump if Ukraine can purchase them.
“Ukraine is ready to buy this equipment and support American weapons manufacturers,” Mr Zelenskyy wrote on X last month, adding that the leaders had also discussed the possibility of co-producing drones. “We can strengthen each other.”
U.S. and European military aid
At the same time, Europe, the United Kingdom, and Canada have increased their aid to Ukraine to nearly $24 billion in the first three months of 2025, including sending some 2 million artillery shells.
NATO member states plan to provide another $40 billion more by year’s end, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
By way of comparison, the U.S. has provided more than $65 billion in weapons and military assistance to Ukraine since 2022.
Since Mr. Trump took office, U.S. military support for Ukraine has been waning. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth skipped the most recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting with European allies in Brussels last month, the first time a U.S. defense secretary wasn’t in attendance.
Pentagon policy chief Eldridge Colby, for his part, has long advocated for a strategic U.S. pivot toward Asia. It’s not the only region demanding U.S. attention amid U.S. stockpile shortages, Mr. Parnell said during the July 2 Pentagon briefing. As tensions increased in the Middle East, the Pentagon reportedly diverted 20,000 anti-drone missiles originally slated for Ukraine to U.S. forces there.
Europe is hoping that the Trump administration will agree to let European partners procure American weapons on Ukraine’s behalf. But for this, production capacity on both continents must grow, says Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
And while Europe is stepping up its output of systems that intercept cruise missiles and drones, when it comes to defense against Russia’s ballistic missiles, “there’s almost no alternative” to U.S. Patriot batteries.
For now, Moscow’s missile attacks against Ukraine are increasing while “fewer and fewer of those missiles are being intercepted,” Mr. Loss says. When it comes to Ukraine’s defensive abilities, even with current levels of help from the U.S. and Europe, he adds, “it’s obviously not enough.”
