Japan’s next Prime Minister could shape the region’s future.
On October 4, 2025, Japan will choose its fourth prime minister in five years, since Shigeru Ishiba resigned after only a year in office due to internal pressures within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Although leadership changes in a parliamentary system are common, the process comes at a time of economic uncertainty and social transformations in Japanese society, which are paired with increasing geopolitical tensions around the Asia–Pacific region.
As a Latin-American who lived in Japan during COVID-19, I find myself pondering on the implications of Shinzo Abe’s assassination, the rise of lobbying accusations, and the unveiling of a power-connected cult, all against the backdrop of a permanent state of elections. In parallel, the dominant LDP faces a changing political landscape, which might challenge its dominance in the future—as newly formed parties gain momentum.
All of these issues raise the question of how the next prime minister will steer domestic and foreign policy into a new era. Two leading candidates with very particular profiles are already shaping expectations as they navigate a complex Asia–Pacific region. Japan is becoming a stronger player in international politics, with a renewed security policy, increasing military activity, and cooperation. The world should keep an eye on this process, understanding its logic, background, and possible consequences.
The Fourth Minister and the Two Candidates
Shinzo Abe resigned in 2020 for health reasons as the country was dealing with the undermining pressures of COVID-19’s uncertainty. Abe’s administration, which took place in two periods—a one-year appointment from 2006 to 2007 and his longer tenure from 2012 to 2020—gave stability to a country still dealing with the consequences of “the lost decades,” the Tohoku 2011 earthquake, and the global crisis of 2008. Before Abe, Japan had also faced an era of revolving prime ministers, which some pair with stagnation and the loss of public trust that eventually cost the LDP its majority in the Diet.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga followed the Abe era, but his government lasted a little under a year. With Japan closing its borders, being left behind by a recovering world, and a crippling approval rate (below 30%), Suga stepped down. Fumio Kishida then took office in October 2021. His cautious measures to battle COVID-19 kept Japan closed to visitors for almost a year. For the lucky ones who were able to get special permission to enter (I arrived a few weeks after he took office), the experience was isolating.
And a few months later, on July 8, 2022, Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a citizen who claimed links between the former prime minister and the Unification Church. As a widely recognized political figure, Abe’s death shocked the world. But domestically, it opened the debate on the economic and political ties between the LDP and the controversial Church of Korean origin, whose followers are sometimes called “Moonies.” Kishida was forced out in 2024, with his economic output and declining popularity being key factors, as well as the party’s ties to the sect. Shigeru Ishiba, his successor, is the last in line and faced several crises during his year in power. Still, the most direct reason was tied to the House of Councilors’ July 20th election, when the LDP lost its majority.
So, who comes next?
Two candidates, both of whom competed last year, are leading the race. Sanae Takaichi, former economic security minister, could become Japan’s first female prime minister. Rather than progressive, she is regarded as highly conservative, opposes same-sex marriage, and advocates for a revision of the pacifist constitution. Next is Shinjiro Koizumi, who could become the youngest prime minister in Japan’s history, at 44. Koizumi, son of a former prime minister, was instrumental in countering the rising rice prices this year—an episode that threatened to spike inflation in an already overheated economy. He is also from a more liberal arm of the party on social-related issues, which has made him popular even among some opposition sectors. Other possible names include Yoshimasa Hayashi, who has served as minister several times and has international education, and Yoshihiko Noda, of the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, which has significantly grown recently.
Japan in the Asia–Pacific
Whoever takes office will lead Japan’s international agenda. The country has seen a growing role in the region, and Trump’s protectionist policies have created a need for regional players to be more active. In 2022, Japan introduced a revised national security strategy that openly acknowledged the increasing threats in the Asia–Pacific region. This strategy was accompanied by doubling the country’s military budget to 2% of GDP. The main challenge, unsurprisingly, is China’s pressure over the Pacific and the Taiwan Strait. However, Russia and North Korea, both neighbors of Japan, are also seen as risks to the country. Despite internal issues, recent prime ministers have advanced policies and measures to strengthen Japan’s alliances and counter threats, not only through hard power and resources but also through hybrid and information warfare, as well as economic security.
The next prime minister will lead a nation that looks very different from the pre-COVID Japan, which already faced significant economic, social, and technological challenges. The pandemic added layers of complexity, including an aging population, evolving global alliances, and the shifting balance of power in the Asia–Pacific. Japan’s future will depend not only on addressing these domestic concerns but also on strengthening its international position in the face of growing geopolitical uncertainties. The choices made by the new prime minister will be instrumental in defining Japan’s role in shaping the region’s future, requiring a blend of strategic foresight, diplomatic agility, and domestic reform to navigate an increasingly turbulent world stage.
