White Brits will become a minority group in the UK population within the next 40 years, a new report has claimed.
A study into birth rates and migration levels has predicted that white British people will make up only 33.7 per cent of the population by the end of the century.
The research conducted by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University says the projected change will come in phases: first falling from the current level of 73 per cent to 57 per cent by 2050, then into the minority levels by 2063.
Professor Goodwin’s report also suggests significant changes for foreign-born citizens and second-generation immigrants, who currently make up less than 20 per cent of the population.
These groups, the report says, will comprise 33.5 per cent of the UK’s population in the next 25 years.
It also predicts a near three-times increase in the number of Muslims living in the UK, suggesting that almost one in five people living in Britain will be followers of Islam by the end of the century.
By the year 2100, the report expects 60 per cent of people living in the UK to have at least have one immigrant parent.
Professor Goodwin said his research, which was based on Office for National Statistics and census data, will ‘spark anxiety, concern and political opposition’ among voters who wish to ‘maintain the culture of the traditional majority’.
Research conducted by Professor Matt Goodwin of Buckingham University (above) claims that white Brits will become the minority race in the UK population within the next 40 years
The study into birth rates and migration levels has predicted that white British people will make up only 33.7 per cent of the UK population by the end of the century (Stock Image)
The report predicts a near three-times increase in the number of Muslims living in the UK, suggesting that almost one in five people living in Britain will be followers of Islam by the end of the century (Pictured: a general view of a mosque in Bradford)
He added: ‘By the end of the current century, most of the people on these islands will not be able to trace their roots in this country back more than one or two generations.
‘This raises enormous questions about the capacity of our country and leaders to unify people around a shared sense of identity, values, ways of life, and culture, and avoid the very real risk of us becoming what Sir Keir Starmer referred to in May as “an island of strangers“.’
In the report titled ‘Demographic Change and the Future of the United Kingdom’, Professor Goodwin also warned of the UK’s ability to ‘absorb and manage this scale of demographic change’.
He said: ‘What these projections show is that the UK is currently on course to experience enormous and historically unprecedented changes in the composition of its population.’
Professor Goodwin’s projections were based on non-white ethnic groups having a higher fertility rate until the end of the century.
The UK-born fertility rate used was 1.39 for those born in the UK, 1.97 for foreign-born people. For Muslims it was 2.35, and for non-Muslims it was 1.54.
The report comes just days after 1,200 migrants crossed the Channel to the UK in what was labelled ‘a day of shame‘.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer even faced criticism from one of his own ministers who said control of Britain’s borders had been lost as a surge in dinghy crossings overwhelmed French and UK border patrol vessels.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer even faced criticism from one of his own ministers who said control of Britain’s borders had been lost as a surge in dinghy crossings overwhelmed French and UK border patrol vessels
The latest Home Office figures show that 1,194 migrants arrived in 18 boats, bringing the provisional annual total so far to 14,811.
This is 42 per cent higher than the 10,448 at the same point last year and 95 per cent up from the same point in 2023, 7,610.
It is still lower than the highest daily total of 1,305 arrivals since data began in 2018, which was recorded on September 3, 2022.
But the total of arrivals for the year, 14,811, is the highest ever recorded for the first five months of a year since data was first recorded on Channel crossings in 2018.
It has also surpassed the highest total recorded for the first six months of the year, which was previously 13,489 on June 30 last year – and n 2024 the number of arrivals did not reach more than 14,000 until July 9, reaching 14,058.
At Gravelines in northern France, more than half a dozen French police officers stood by and watched as migrants waded into the sea and scrambled on to an inflatable boat. French authorities said they rescued 184 people.
People hoping to reach the UK to claim asylum wade into the Channel to catch a dinghy piloted by several men
One of Sir Keir’s senior cabinet ministers admitted the scenes were ‘pretty shocking’ as he said the UK had ‘lost control of its borders over the last five years’.
Defence Secretary John Healey told Sky News that the latest crossings revealed a ‘really big problem’ – but insisted there was pressure being put on France for better co-operation and crackdowns ahead.
Britain had agreed a deal in 2023 to pay France £480million over three years to stop the crossings, including £175million in the current financial year – more than £480,000 per day.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp branded the latest Channel scenes ‘a disgrace but sadly entirely expected’ and ‘a day of shame for the Labour Government’.
He added: ‘It’s a shameful failure by the French to discharge their duties to stop illegal migration. The French are failing to stop these crossings by illegal immigrants.
‘Over a thousand illegal immigrants in a single day, boats flooding the Channel, Border Force stretched beyond breaking point, and even fishing vessels drafted in because our maritime rescue services are overwhelmed.’
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp branded the latest Channel scenes ‘a disgrace but sadly entirely expected’ and ‘a day of shame for the Labour Government’
And Richard Tice MP, deputy leader of Reform UK, said: ‘It looks like we pay hundreds of millions to give French police officers photography lessons because they are certainly not providing any security. Frankly, the Government should be suing the French for our money back.’
At least 18 migrant boats were seen leaving the French coast on Sunday, June 1, carrying more than 1,000 people – exceeding the previous daily record for 2025 of 825, set earlier last month.
Mr Healey added: ‘Pretty shocking, those scenes [on Sunday]. The truth is, Britain’s lost control of its borders over the last five years.
‘The last government last year left an asylum system in chaos and record levels of immigration.
‘But I think that [Sunday] tells us a really big problem which is that you’ve got French police unable to intervene to intervene and intercept the boats when they are in shallow water.
Richard Tice MP, deputy leader of Reform UK, said ‘the Government should be suing the French for our money back’
‘We saw the smugglers launching elsewhere and coming round like a taxi to pick them up.’
Mr Healey insisted there was ‘new co-operation’ with the French suggesting their officials would intervene in the water.
When asked whether he was ‘hacked off’ with France for not doing so now, Mr Healey said: ‘They are not doing it, but we’ve got the agreement that they will change the way they work.
‘Our concentration now is to push them to get that into operation so they can intercept these smugglers and stop these people in the boats, not just on the shore.’
