Badenoch claims to have seen off a mutiny, but will it actually win her relevance and respect?
“So; it’s mutiny then, Mr Jenrick. I shall see you swing from the highest yardarm in Westminster dock for this day’s work.”
Kemi Badenoch might not have taken quite as stern a line with her mutineers as Captain Bligh, but she responded as near as she could in dealing with rumours of Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform.
She wrote that she was “presented with clear, irrefutable evidence that he was plotting in secret to defect in a way designed to be as damaging as possible to his Shadow Cabinet colleagues and the wider Conservative Party.” According to The Telegraph, a copy of Robert Jenrick’s resignation letter was found by Tories. Added to the fact he had cancelled a speaking engagement this weekend, this led senior Tories to conclude that he was poised to announce his defection within the next 24 hours.
Whether or not this is all true is, frankly, irrelevant. Kemi’s decision to dismiss Jenrick makes it true, because it is almost certain he will now defect to Reform. It provides a kind of infallible ex post facto rationalisation; making it so makes it so.
The news came as a surprise, it seems, not only to the man himself (he has yet to be seen on our screens or issue a statement, his team has similarly gone to ground and he was reported to be working with Conservative colleagues as normal this morning) but to Nigel Farage, whose press conference to announce his new Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, was completely derailed. Farage seemed genuinely shocked to hear it, and when asked if he intended to speak to Jenrick, told the press “I’ll give him a ring this afternoon”.
Where does this leave the lie of the land? The main loser in the short term, of course, is Jenrick. Given the polls, that is unlikely to stay true for long; should things remain as they are, his defection is almost certain to be the difference between him keeping his seat and losing it. His hand is also significantly weaker in negotiating with Reform than it was previously; had he been able to hold on until Nigel Farage’s upcoming Shadow Cabinet announcement, which I suspect was the previously identified defection moment, he would have been able to gain a bigger role than he is now likely to.
It significantly strengthen’s Kemi’s personal position, removing as it does the most prominent and active potential leadership challenger. The only obvious alternative is James Cleverly, who has lain low since finishing third in the leadership race and being bought back into the Shadow Cabinet. Other challengers — like Katie Lam — may have moved up in the rankings, but are still seen as long-term prospects. Another winner might be Nick Timothy, who is likely to be appointed as Jenrick’s replacement.
As for the Parties? Allowing Jenrick to join Reform would put them in the same position as previous defections; what the individual brings to Reform must be balanced out against the perception that the party is a last-chance saloon for former Tories desperate for survival. It would be a seismic shock if Jenrick, who can claim to have been the only immigration minister in the entire 14 years of Tory government to actually lower migration — and who resigned because he was prevented from going further — does not clear this bar. Previous statements from either Farage or Jenrick about the other will be, as they are in every case, brushed aside.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, are in a more interesting bind. Following his removal, a senior Tory has claimed Robert Jenrick was planning to challenge Kemi Badenoch for the leadership “only a few weeks ago”. He should have done, but it is questionable whether he could have done; the Jenrick momentum, after a year of increasing, sempt to have plateaued.
Kemi has benefitted a great deal of positive press coverage since Conference (particularly from centrist establishment Conservatives who dislike the politics of either Farage or Jenrick), cementing her position as Leader. Her personal ratings have also improved; however, it has had little impact on the Conservative Party’s position. Reform are still hovering around 30, the Tories at 20 – albeit an improvement from lows of 15, but increasingly in danger of slipping behind parties like the Greens and Lib Dems. Anyone of note or ambition will see the disparate effects at play; a strong Kemi means next to nothing for their reelection chances.
She is also a lot more secure because over the course of the last year, as Reform have consolidated what many predicted to be a temporary surge into a permanent polling lead, many right wing Conservative members have left to Reform. Jenrick’s declining position within the party is both a cause and function of this, which then compounds their problem of being outflanked by Reform.
Kemi has played a difficult hand the smart way … Yet strong leadership at the top counts for little if the party itself cannot stop bleeding talent
It is unlikely that Jenrick will bring many MPs with him — the most likely candidate, his former campaign manage Danny Kruger, has already defected — but sources close to him point out that he will bring both an effective campaign machine and significant financial backing. His energy will also be a long-term electoral benefit to the campaign machine. There will also be a number of right-wingers, primarily young, who were holding out in the hopes of a Jenrick-led Conservative Party who are now likely to leave; a Reform source gloats; “where’s your saviour now?”
Kemi has played a difficult hand the smart way. If Jenrick was about to defect it’s hard to see what else she could do, and in acting decisively she has decisively lessened the impact of his defection, whilst also securing her position. Yet strong leadership at the top counts for little if the party itself cannot stop bleeding talent, credibility, and attention rightwards.
Curiously, Tory groups have been conspicuously silent. At this point, one more defection barely registers — just another episode in what Anna Turley neatly called “the latest sad soap opera from a chaotic Conservative Party sliding deeper and deeper into irrelevance.” Jenrick’s defection is, more than anything, a reminder of how the Tories are struggling to survive in a political landscape they once dominated.
