A central feature of contemporary conservatism is paying tribute to the constituent territories that form the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (although the less said about phrases like “the awesome foursome”, the better). In recent decades, the other defining feature of conservative constitutionalism has been a fatalistic attitude towards separatists and its prospects.
Such gloom usually bows its head in relation to the United Kingdom’s problem child, Scotland. Still, with Plaid Cymru enjoying a spate of decent polling results, some conservatives are now suggesting that Welsh nationalism has become a major part of the political firmament.
Certain parts of the Welsh commentariat have mirrored this sentiment. Articles advancing the notion of an attendant nationalist awakening have proliferated in recent months, citing boiler-plate signifiers — think heightened cultural awareness, plus support amongst the young for independence and the party advocating it. Add an obligatory reference to Margaret Thatcher, or the drowning of Tryweryn, and you have a gripping narrative.
It is worth remembering, though, that some of the commentators claiming that Wales is about to throw off the shackles of Westminster may have more than a little sympathy with the nationalist cause. Presenting this as an inevitable trend neatly combines compelling copy with personal preferences.
But how plausible is this? Consider the tenuous nature of the metrics invoked by these commentators. The issue of curriculum reform is instructive in this regard. Some analyses present this as evidence of the growing proto-nationalist bent of the governed, with their governors giving them compulsory Welsh history modules to satisfy their patriotic palates. The reality is more mundane, with the change pushed through by a Liberal Democrat Education Minister.
The attendance was roughly half the crowd for a league match at recently-relegated Cardiff City
In a similar vein, attendance figures at pro-independence rallies usually get invoked to highlight nationalist consciousness amongst ordinary citizens. But how big are they? While a recent rally attracted thousands of attendees, the attendance was roughly half the crowd for a league match at recently-relegated Cardiff City. The rallies themselves are carefully choreographed, too — hardly spontaneous outbreaks of national feeling.
That said, it would be wrong not to acknowledge that independence is popular with young people in Wales. An estimated 70 per cent amongst those in the 25–34-year-old age bracket hold pro-independent sentiments. Yet, as research suggests, the relationship between constitutional views and nationalism is more nuanced than the commentariat mood music. For those not aged between 25-34, independence is a far less attractive proposition, failing to hit majority support amongst any age group over the age of 34.
Even the assumption that support for independence will translate into votes is not nailed on. For a start, younger voters are less likely to vote than their older counterparts. In addition, when these young voters do turn out, it is far from certain that they will cast their votes for the pro-independence Plaid. The party entered the 2021 Senedd election boldly talking of independence by 2030. It came third (behind the Conservatives), with young voters scooped up by Labour.
One cannot help but feel that the political strength of institutional separatism, in the form of Plaid, is being overegged. Yes, the party has topped the two most recent Senedd voting intention polls — but a degree of perspective may be needed. The Labour Party, which has run Wales for the last 25 years, came top in the previous 10 polls.
Plaid’s current polling lead is generating breathy talk about a Welsh independence referendum. The notion is implausible, given that, were Plaid to win in 2026, the Welsh voting system makes it near-certain that it would have to govern via some arrangement with a pro-union party.
Ultimately, young people rebel — a phenomenon witnessed since time immemorial. But youthful pushback against a set of sclerotic establishments in Westminster and Cardiff Bay do not a nation make.
