In mid-June, as Israel waged a military blitz against Iran, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held an urgent phone call.
Tehran, a key provider of drones and other military support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, and a vital source of oil to fuel China’s economy, was in a bad spot. Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities – and the looming potential for strikes by the United States – risked engulfing the Middle East in a broader war. “The current situation … is highly perilous,” Mr. Xi said. Mr. Putin agreed.
Yet while the Chinese and Russian leaders called for a ceasefire and de-escalation, and later voiced strong condemnations of the U.S. bombing of Iran, overall they have stayed on the sidelines of the Iran-Israel war.
Why We Wrote This
Much has been made of the emerging “Axis of Upheaval” – an alliance among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – and how it threatens the Western-dominated world order. But the recent strikes on Iran highlight some limits of this alliance.
Iran’s weakening at the hands of Israel’s military has highlighted the limits of its alliance with China and Russia. The three allied countries, together with North Korea, have all significantly bolstered their ties in recent years – leading some Western experts to dub them an authoritarian “Axis of Upheaval.”
“Iran is taking a significant amount of hitting … but Russia and China have not stepped forward to beef up its defense,” says Nader Habibi, professor of practice in the economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University’s Crown Center for Middle East Studies. “In terms of effective military support for Iran, they have both been reluctant.”
More broadly, the reactions by Beijing and Moscow underscore the priority both are placing on advancing narrower national interests and avoiding entanglement in a Middle East conflict, experts say.
“Neither Russia nor China seem especially interested in sticking their necks out for Iran,” says Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates military restraint. “I’m sure Iran has noticed that.”
Sergei Karpukhin/Sputnik/AP/File
Bringing Iran into the fold
China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – sometimes collectively referred to as CRINK – are united ideologically by a shared desire to challenge and eventually replace the U.S.-led international order, which they view as disintegrating.
“Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Putin as he departed the Kremlin in March 2023.
China and Russia have significantly deepened ties – personified by the close relationship between Messrs. Xi and Putin – since the two leaders signed a sweeping Sino-Russian “no-limits” strategic partnership in February 2022, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine.
That invasion, in turn, has seen Russia strengthen economic and military cooperation with China, Iran, and North Korea, both out of necessity to bolster its Ukraine war effort and as part of a broader campaign against the U.S. and its allies.
Iran has sold Russia thousands of drones, as well as bombs, missiles, and other military hardware for use in Ukraine, which indirectly allows Tehran to test its munitions. Iran also transferred technology for unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia, which now produces them locally. In return, Russia has supplied Iran with warplanes and captured Western military hardware.
Meanwhile, Iran has been allowed to join two multilateral organizations spearheaded by China and Russia. Last year, it gained entry to BRICS, an economic bloc founded in 2009 that now has eleven member countries, and in 2023, Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a Eurasian security group started in 2001.
Indeed, on Thursday, China hosted the defense ministers of Iran and Russia in the eastern coastal city of Qingdao at the SCO defense chiefs’ meeting.
“Russia and China have been very active in developing a Eurasian bloc. And they have gradually brought Iran into that block,” says Dr. Habibi.
Transactional relationships
Then in January 2025, Iran and Russia signed a 20-year strategic partnership treaty. While it does not contain a mutual defense clause, the pact calls for Iran and Russia to cooperate against common military threats, share military technology, and conduct joint exercises, which they do annually with China.
Yet despite Iran’s entry into such accords – including a strategic partnership concluded with China in 2021 – Tehran could not count on Beijing or Moscow to go beyond rhetorical support in its clash with Israel and the U.S.
Ultimately, “These are transactional relationships,” says Dr. Kelanic. Iran, as the smaller, weaker, more isolated, and less wealthy junior partner, must accept whatever help China and Russia are willing to provide.
The latest strikes give Moscow significant leverage over Tehran, says Alexey Mukhin, head of the independent Center for Political Information, a consultancy in Moscow.
“The Iranians are clearly very frightened,” says Mr. Mukhin, speaking after the meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Mr. Putin in Moscow on Monday. Mr. Putin told Mr. Araghchi that Russia would “provide support to the Iranian people,” without making any military or economic commitments.
“Iran needs friends right now, and only Russia and China are in any position to help,” says Mr. Mukhin.
Raheb Homavandi/Reuters/File
Balancing national interests
While Russia is preoccupied with the Ukraine war, China’s priority vis-à-vis Iran is to safeguard its investments in the Middle East and access to Iranian oil.
China buys an estimated 90% of Iranian oil exports – an amount that represents an economic lifeline for Tehran, while it constitutes only about one-tenth of China’s oil imports.
Given its powerful economic interests in the region, Beijing has stressed that it seeks stability in the Middle East through “a lasting and effective ceasefire,” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday.
Beijing and Moscow both seek to keep the current Iranian regime in power, and may see opportunities in helping Teheran rebuild its nuclear program and defensive capabilities.
Yet as major powers, China and Russia are likely to temper their involvement with Iran lest it impact their relations with Israel and the U.S., experts say.
“Now is an excellent opportunity to end the conflict,” Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, was quoted as saying in the China state-run newspaper Global Times. Israel, Iran, and the U.S. have all achieved their goals in the conflict, and Washington can now claim credit for facilitating the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Dr. Sun said.
