One of the most predictable trends in American politics could be un-predictable in the 2026 midterms.
With few exceptions, the party that wins the White House in a presidential election faces a bloodbath at the polls in the following midterms.
But, a poll published Tuesday by an institute founded by veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen indicates 2026 could be shaping up into something very different.
The poll, published by Napolitan News Service and reported by Just the News, showed President Donald Trump’s Republican Party leading Democrats on a generic ballot by a percentage point — 46-45 percent.
When less-partisan “leaners” are removed, the poll showed the GOP ahead 43 percent to 41 percent.
The poll noted that it was conducted among 2,000 registered voters from Sept. 22 to 24 by Scott Rasmussen. The margin of error is 3.1 percent.
Granted, it’s only one poll for midterm elections that are still more than a year away, and granted the Republican lead is within the margin of error. But it’s the latest sign that the 2026 midterms could buck history in the Republican Party’s favor.
(In the 2022 midterms, with the execrable President Joe Biden in the White House, Democrats lost the House but still retained control of the Senate in a disappointing fizzle of an anticipated “red wave.”)
First, the Democratic Party has a historically bad approval rating.
Will Democrats be able to pull out of their self-destructive tailspin before the 2026 midterms?
As Fox News reported last week, only 30 percent of respondents in a Quinnipiac poll had a “favorable” view of the party — the lowest since Quinnipiac started asking the question. (Republican approval was 38 percent, which doesn’t sound great, but that difference is enough to swing an election.)
Second, morality aside, and from a purely public-relations standpoint, the Democratic Party deserves that historically bad approval. In fact, it’s a testimony to partisan loyalty that it’s even that high.
This is the party that is on the wrong side of pretty much every issue where sane Americans agree:
Men should dominate women’s sports? Democrats, yes. Americans, no. Illegal immigration bad? Democrats, no. Americans, yes. Is crime a national problem? Americans yes, Democrats, no. And the list goes on …
That’s because the Democratic Party — to its everlasting disgrace — is controlled by its extreme leftist base. And those leftists are out of touch with normal Americans. (Leftists even got it wrong on that awesome Sidney Sweeney ad, for crying out loud. You almost have to be trying to be that stupid.)
All of that might have something to do with the topsy-turvy nature of politics at the moment, which are not benefiting Democrats.
On Wednesday, Newsweek reported that Gen Z voters — the youngest bloc — had shown a dramatic increase in approval for Trump in the past two months.
In July, Trump had a 65 percent disapproval rating among voters aged 18-29, compared to only a 35 percent approval, according to an AtlasIntel poll. In September, those numbers had shifted to a 49 percent approval rating to a 44 percent disapproval.
Considering that young voters are historically liberal to the point of cliche, and considering that Trump and his policies are almost certainly going to be the biggest factor in the midterm results, that doesn’t bode well for Democratic politicians in 2026, or potentially many elections to come.
Of course, it’s important to acknowledge that congressional races aren’t won or lost by generic ballots. They’re won or lost by real, live candidates competing in districts for real, live voters.
And many congressional districts are deliberately uncompetitive through gerrymandering — a process Democrats have turned into an art form, but Republicans are playing hardball to catch up.
But what the poll showed is that Republicans could not just avoid the “thumpin’” President George W. Bush’s GOP took in 2006, or the “shellacking” of President Barack Obama’s Democrats in 2010.
It showed that the party could well turn a politically predictable defeat into an upset of the history of midterm elections.
And Democrats are doing it to themselves.
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