Shortly before midnight last Monday, Russia launched another attack on Ukraine, targeting the country’s central and western regions. In the capital, Kyiv, the night thundered with explosions until dawn. The blasts outside the window alternated with rolls of thunder, merging into a terrifying, awe-inspiring symphony.
While my wife slept in the bathroom, I sat on the hallway floor, tracking the trajectories of drones and missiles — both cruise and ballistic — on my iPhone as they flew toward Kyiv and other cities. In Ukraine, everyone now recognizes them by sound. We’ve learned to distinguish air defence fire from incoming strikes — and we’ve noticed the distinctive thump of Patriot batteries less and less.
It has been almost two weeks since former President Donald Trump pledged to send more weapons to Ukraine and threatened 100 per cent “secondary tariffs” on Russia unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire within 50 days. Since then, Russian forces have pushed further into Ukraine and launched a wave of massive shellings — from the front-line towns to those deep in the west.
According to the United Nations, June marked the highest number of monthly civilian casualties in Ukraine in the past three years: 232 killed and 1,343 injured. The death toll didn’t rise last night. But just a five-minute walk from my home, a blast wave shattered dozens of windows in a high-rise apartment block, lacerating residents with shrapnel.
Among them was a two-year-old girl with leg injuries. She must have been in terrible pain and fear. I don’t know how her parents comforted her, but I doubt they told her to just hang on until Trump’s 50-day deadline. And I doubt they quoted former commander-in-chief Zaluzhny, who warned that the war in Ukraine could last until 2034.
I don’t want to believe it — but his grim forecast is looking more plausible with each passing day. There was brief hope when Washington announced it would send the next Patriot system off the production line to Germany, replacing two systems from Berlin’s own arsenal for Kyiv. But few in Ukraine saw the German tabloid Bild’s sober report: the first German-funded Patriot system is still under construction and won’t be ready for another 6 to 8 months.
Governments don’t like to deliver bad news. Ukrainian media extensively covered President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call with his French counterpart, in which he stressed the importance of continuing Ukraine’s path toward EU membership. Meanwhile, news of the EU’s decision to reduce the next aid tranche under the Ukraine Facility from €4.5 billion to €3 billion received little attention.
The International Monetary Fund has also warned Ukraine that it could lose its $15.6 billion aid package unless it fulfills its anti-corruption commitments.
These warnings came immediately after Zelensky initiated changes to the Criminal Procedure Code — effectively stripping the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of their independence.
Analysts quickly noted a drop in international trust toward the Ukrainian president. His misstep could cost the entire country — soldiers in trenches and civilians cowering under the whine of Russian drones alike.
According to the Kiel Institute, by early 2025, global aid pledges to Ukraine totaled $280 billion — around $80 billion annually. The U.S. share of $133 billion appears to belong to the past, with little chance of being renewed under a future Trump administration. European countries contributed $154 billion, nearly 90 per cent of it in the form of loans, albeit under favorable terms. By the end of 2025, the EU expects to provide between €23 billion and €32 billion — roughly one-third of the 2024 level.
Russia, meanwhile, is spending about $200 billion a year on its war effort. Much of its economy has been retooled for military production. Its mobilisation reserve exceeds 25 million — five times that of Ukraine. North Korea is reportedly planning to send up to 30,000 troops to Russia and has already supplied millions of 152-mm artillery shells.
In this confrontation, Ukraine resembles David facing Goliath — but without a slingshot. And instead of being handed one by its allies, Ukraine’s David is now seen trampling the last shoots of democracy on his own soil.
The world has noticed. And Ukrainians have responded.
This past week, thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to protest the government’s efforts to dismantle its two key anti-corruption agencies. They gathered in central Kyiv — some carrying handmade posters, others improvising slogans on the spot. Many messages were aimed directly at President Zelensky and his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Once hailed as a wartime hero, Zelensky now faced some of the most difficult days of his presidency. The pressure forced him to act.
On Sunday, July 27, he promised European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that a bill restoring the independence of the NABU and SAP would be passed.
“It is important that the draft law be adopted immediately, next week,” Zelensky wrote on social media after the call.
The protests may have quietened down, but the tension lingers
Even as Zelensky has kept that promise and repealed the law that attacked Ukraine’s anti-corruption institutions, his image, political standing, and approval ratings will never fully recover.
The protests may have quietened down, but the tension lingers. For Zelensky — once celebrated for his courage and moral clarity — this may become the ultimate test of his leadership.
The anti-government movement has already been dubbed the “Cardboard Revolution”, named after the slogans protesters scrawled on cardboard outside the presidential palace. One read: “Ukraine is being killed by Russia — and by corruption.”
It felt, unmistakably, like a verdict — passed by the people.
