Donald Trump has long pledged that in his second term he would be the “peace president,” resolving quickly the wars and international security crises threatening world peace.
But with a ceasefire in Ukraine looking as far off as ever, and Israel intensifying its war in Gaza, Mr. Trump appears to be shifting his attention to a third arena for securing his reputation: Iran and its steadily advancing nuclear program.
Americans and indeed the world could expect “something good” in a matter of days on diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran’s nuclear program and bar it from ever attaining a nuclear weapon, the president said Sunday.
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As complex and daunting a problem as Iran’s steadily advancing nuclear program may be, for now it still may offer President Donald Trump the best option for burnishing his self-image as a deal-maker and peacemaker.
No one either at the White House or among analysts focused on Iran suggests that “good news” could be an actual deal resolving the nuclear issue. But some say it could be something like an interim agreement laying out the parameters for a deal, or perhaps an Iranian agreement to temporarily modify its uranium enrichment activities, slowing its path to the fuel required for a bomb.
Whatever the “good news,” it would allow the president to show progress in resolving – “with no bombs dropped,” as he says he prefers – a key threat to global peace and stability. Moreover, as complex and daunting a problem as Iran’s nuclear program may be, it would fortify Mr. Trump’s drooping self-image as someone who can take what he calls “bad deals” and make them “good deals.”
“The Iran negotiations are the best opportunity for Trump to resolve an international crisis,” says Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.
Iranian Foreign Ministry/WANA/Reuters
Factors favoring a deal
Noting that the political will to reach a deal exists on both sides and that negotiations are ongoing, Ms. Davenport adds, “Nothing is assured … but compared to Gaza and Ukraine, Iran holds the promise of an international challenge where Trump can make a deal and avert a crisis.”
By reaching a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, Mr. Trump would be making good on a commitment to take what he calls the “bad deal” that President Barack Obama reached with Iran in 2015 and replacing it with a better one.
In his first term, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated with Iran, shifting to a “maximum-pressure campaign.” That policy failed to slow Iran’s nuclear progress, and he never reached a new deal.
Still, a number of factors favor reaching a deal under Trump 2.0, not the least of which is Iran’s weaker economic and regional standing today, analysts say. Others say international factors appear to be feeding Iran’s openness to moving forward in an attempt to head off looming worse alternatives.
At the top of that list is Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s clear and public preference for military action now to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities. Mr. Netanyahu is said to be worried that President Trump’s desire for the acclaim that would come with a deal will ultimately leave Iran with an enrichment program and the capability of building a bomb.
On Wednesday Mr. Trump confirmed reports that he had warned Mr. Netanyahu in a weekend phone call against striking Iran. “I just said … ‘We’re having very good discussions with [the Iranians], and I don’t think it’s appropriate right now,’” the president said.
The Israeli leader, joined by some of Mr. Trump’s top national security advisers and hawkish Republican senators, says a full cessation of Iran’s enrichment activities and complete dismantling of its nuclear program is the only acceptable outcome.
Iran, on the other hand, says that as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has a right to a peaceful nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment for powering energy production.
But also likely to be figuring in Iran’s calculations are the influence of the White House faction favoring military action – When might the hawks carry the day with a mercurial president? – and prospects for a European Union-led return to tough economic sanctions on Iran over its nuclear advancements.
Tougher negotiating tactic?
Indeed, some analysts say that instead of encouraging Iran with public hints of diplomatic progress, Mr. Trump should be underscoring the implications for Tehran if he decides the Iranians are stringing him along.
“I’d be wary of how good is the ‘good news’ the president is talking about, because the reality is that the two sides are still miles apart,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow focusing on Iranian security and political issues at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington.
“If you’re Iran you want to initiate blips of optimism that allow the regime to continue limping along,” he says. “But none of it means they are seriously adjusting their position [on their nuclear program]. They are still just seeking to fit square pegs into round holes.”
In that scenario, Mr. Trump’s best option may be to “push away from the table” and call Iran’s bluff, he says. “The president’s best chance of getting a deal is to play up the regime’s fears about the consequences of not seriously negotiating now.”
Mr. Ben Taleblu’s first recommendation would be for the Trump administration to move away from talks with Iran and coordinate with the EU on steps toward the “snapback” to the steep economic sanctions the Iranians most fear. Those sanctions are set to return in October, but European officials have said they are considering moving up the timing by months.
The Arms Control Association’s Ms. Davenport says she also sees risks in a hasty declaration of “good news” that could ultimately make a diplomatic resolution of Iran’s nuclear challenge less likely.
Noting the president’s “short attention span,” she says she worries Mr. Trump “could declare victory early over some interim steps and lose the momentum to move towards a comprehensive deal.”
But that might only assure that the diplomatic path is eventually closed off, she says, and the hawks pressing for military intervention get their way.
“If Trump allows Netanyahu and others in the administration to push to no enrichment and full dismantlement of the nuclear program, Iran is going to walk away,” she says. “And there aren’t many alternatives as to where that leads.”
