So much for signals. Rather than use diplomatic niceties, Donald Trump opted for the blunt approach today. Just a few hours after warning Iran that time was running out to give up its nuclear weapons program and sites, Trump demanded a complete capitulation:
Worth noting: It’s unusual to demand an unconditional surrender from a country on which one has not declared war. Also worth noting: The Iranians have claimed to be at war with the US for forty-six years, and acted in that fashion a number of times in that period. So let’s not be too cute about the particulars here.
Two minutes earlier, Trump unveiled a threat against ‘Supreme Leader’ Ali Khamenei, warning him that his secret bunker was not so secret after all:
We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Of course, we’re not going to take out Khamenei. The Israelis might take him out, assuming that they want to do so, can actually find him, and think it’s worth the collateral damage. (Spoiler alert, in order: They do, they might, and they do.) We didn’t declare war on Iran, so Trump’s freedom of action is still somewhat limited. But Trump wants the Iranians to capitulate, and so he’s escalating the stakes to increase pressure on Khamenei — or whoever’s calling the shots at the moment.
In the meantime, the Iranians are rapidly running out of options. Israel has found and destroyed about half of their known missile launchers, probably more by now, and their volleys are getting progressively weaker as a result. Their ABM defenses have managed to parry the last several attack waves almost completely, and their interceptor inventory is in better shape than Iran’s remaining missile stocks. That’s been the Israeli Air Force’s main focus, and it’s paying off:
12 IRGC missile bases destroyed by IDF today https://t.co/s0ju29FPsU
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 17, 2025
Soon, the Iranians will have no effective military response to Israel, either offensive or defensive. They need an intervention, so much so that their foreign minister publicly begged Trump to make “one phone call” to get the Israelis to stop. The Iranian regime also tried to send out a cry for help from other Muslim nations in defense of the “ummah,” to no avail. The Iranians don’t have allies in the region — they had proxies, but Israel has all but dismantled them, too.
They do have partners, but those prospects look grim as well. A rumor this weekend suggested that Vladimir Putin refused to intercede or escalate matters to rescue his main drone supplier. Today, that has been confirmed, not so much because Putin doesn’t want to save the regime but because he really can’t do it without starting a world war — and he’s not doing so hot with the war he’s already fighting:
Russia is watching Israel’s bombardment of Iran with mounting concern for the survival of a key ally, though the Kremlin recognizes it has few levers to influence the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Iran hasn’t asked for Russian help and Moscow doesn’t plan to offer any defense assistance, according to a person close to the Kremlin who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. No one can stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from pursuing the bombing, and Russia won’t be able to act as a mediator to stop the conflict if the goal is regime change, the person said.
“At the moment, mediation does not seem likely,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a think tank that advises the Kremlin. “If it comes to some form of behind-the-scenes diplomacy, Russia is more likely to play a role between Iran and the United States — Israel’s interest in negotiations is not apparent.”
If anything, Putin may look at the rapid collapse of Iranian military assets and begin to realize what he’s up against in the West. He doesn’t have the throw weight he might have had before bumbling his conquest of Ukraine, and now he may not be able to sustain that if Iran can’t keep producing the drones Putin needs. China could still threaten to intercede, but they may wonder whether their own untested forces could get exposed and humiliated — especially since it’s clear that Israel simply refuses to be deterred any longer in wars its enemies keep fighting against them.
So what can the regime do? Unconditional surrender isn’t likely for a militant Islamist regime:
The mullahs can’t surrender.
Shia islam doesn’t allow this. Their own ideology demands that they flee or die in battle. Now they are forced to choose.
This is the reason they refuse to surrender.
— 𝗡𝗶𝗼𝗵 𝗕𝗲𝗿𝗴 ♛ ✡︎ (@NiohBerg) June 17, 2025
We’ve seen this before too, even apart from the Islamist context. From his bunker in the last month of his evil and wretched life, Adolf Hitler planned to go out in a blaze of glory and utterly destroy Germany in the process, mimicking the arc in Norse mythology of the Götterdämmerung. He issued orders to destroy what was left of German infrastructure and then fight to the last man on all fronts, orders that thankfully were largely ignored by battle commanders who had had enough of Nazi nihilism by April 1945.
The true believers in the regime may want to go out the same way. Most of them, though, will likely make their way to Russia or perhaps Pakistan via Afghanistan, slinking away once they realize the depths of their humiliation at the hands of the ‘Zionists.’ Don’t underestimate the disillusionment that will come when they realize that “Allah” isn’t particularly interested in saving their wretched hindquarters from the kicking that they haven’t had since Saddam Hussein, and which they have richly earned.
When will that happen? Trump is meeting with his national security council as this post is being written, and they may decide to take action on Fordow soon. If that site gets successfully destroyed or made inaccessible, the Iranians don’t have much left to defend. Their abject humiliation is likely a mortal wound to their ability to control the local population, especially in Tehran. With both their claims to rule on divine right and by force of arms dismantled, the remnants of Khamenei’s death cult will either have to choose death or exile — and a delay of that choice might be a default to the former.
Also, the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast is now up! Today’s show features:
- What was the biggest surprise in the past week? Israel’s massive and nearly instantaneous defenestration of Iran’s regime reminds both Andrew Malcolm and myself of the destruction of Hezbollah last year.
- We talk about the implications for the region, and what the US might do to hasten the end of the conflict.
- We also talk about Democrats’ resistance to voter incentives and disincentives and wonder what is truly driving them to champion the 20% positions in American life.
The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!
