You wouldn’t know it from the bellicose social media posts. But President Donald Trump’s decisions as commander in chief of the world’s most powerful military have been governed by a decidedly more cautious credo:
That waging wars is far easier than ending them. And winning, in any meaningful sense, is harder yet – even if, in purely military terms, you have the upper hand.
The prospects for his intensifying efforts this week to bring an end to two devastating wars – in Ukraine and Gaza – hinge on whether he can get that message across to two leaders critical to any de-escalation.
Why We Wrote This
Trump promised to be the president to end all wars. But that pledge depends on convincing Israel and Russia that military force alone will never prevail.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are proving a very tough audience.
Mr. Putin “just seems like he wants to … keep killing people,” Mr. Trump lamented after a conversation last week. On Tuesday at the White House, he went further. He accused the Russian leader of making nice on the phone while offering only meaningless nonsense – a point Mr. Trump drove home with a one-word expletive.
There was no sign of similar tension with Mr. Netanyahu, who met Mr. Trump in Washington this week. Both men appeared in a mood to celebrate the damage to Iran’s nuclear sites from recent Israeli and U.S. military strikes.
Yet Mr. Netanyahu also seems reluctant to embrace the president’s view of the political limits, and political perils, of waging war.
On Iran, America’s bunker-busting attack reflected that approach. Mr. Trump clearly intended it as a one-off, hoping he can now seal a political deal to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
Mr. Netanyahu remains skeptical of a diplomatic endgame, and remarks this week suggested he still holds out hope the Iranians will deliver regime change.
His similarly open-ended view of Israel’s war in Gaza – vowing to “destroy” the Hamas movement responsible for the killing, abuse, and abduction of hundreds of Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023 – has been frustrating U.S. and Gulf Arab efforts to get a ceasefire.
The irony is that both the Russian president and the Israeli prime minister understand – and may even share – Mr. Trump’s concern about “forever wars.”
Just as Mr. Trump’s caution has been shaped by the failure of U.S. military power to deliver political victory in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Russian and Israeli leaders are aware of sobering examples from their own countries’ past.
The then-Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, when Vladimir Putin was starting his career as a KGB officer. Nine years later, unable to defeat Afghanistan’s mujahedeen guerrillas despite losing nearly 15,000 troops, the Kremlin pulled out.
Mr. Netanyahu’s view of the potential political pitfalls of war – and until Oct. 7, he exhibited a caution toward open-ended military action much like Mr. Trump’s – will have been colored by Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982.
Israel launched a major ground and air attack across Lebanon’s southern border, eventually advancing into the capital, Beirut. It hoped to boost an ally, the Christian Lebanese leader Bashir Gemayel, into power. Yet Mr. Gemayel was assassinated. His militia massacred hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the camps of Sabra and Shatila.
While the invasion neutralized the power of armed Palestinian groups, it powered the rise of a more formidable foe: the Iranian-backed Shiite militia, Hezbollah.
So why has Mr. Trump so far failed to enlist their full support for a political exit in Ukraine and Gaza?
A main reason seems to be the internal political calculations of the Russian and Israeli leaders.
Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/Reuters
Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022 expecting a speedy victory, the seizure of the capital, Kyiv, and the installation of a Russia-friendly alternative to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
To stop now and sign a deal with Mr. Zelenskyy – having lost tens of thousands of soldiers; large numbers of tanks, aircraft, and naval vessels; and taken only the eastern third of Ukraine – would be hard for even the Kremlin to portray as a victory.
Mr. Netanyahu has succeeded in hobbling Hezbollah to the north and Hamas to the south, and also launched an audacious military attack on Iran.
But polling suggests none of that has seriously dented popular ire over the fact he was at the helm on Oct. 7, and he faces the prospect of elections next year.
His immediate priority seems to be to keep his coalition together, at least until the Knesset adjourns at the end of July. Far-right coalition partners are steadfastly opposing a ceasefire, insisting that Israel keep on fighting, reoccupy Gaza, and even find a way to move its some 2 million Palestinian inhabitants elsewhere.
Militarily, Mr. Putin and Mr. Netanyahu are confident they “hold all the cards,” to use one of Mr. Trump’s preferred phrases.
But they also know they can’t end their wars by mere force of arms.
The U.S. president will hope they ultimately recognize that the longer the conflicts grind on, the greater the risk of political defeat.
In Russia’s case, an expanded and increasingly steadfast European flank of NATO.
In Israel’s, growing international isolation over the destruction and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
