Too little, too late? Or a bargaining chip to get everyone back to their corners?
Donald Trump dropped the next shoe in the redistricting fight by threatening a do–over of sorts. Rather than wait for the next mandated census in 2030, Trump announced this morning that he would order a mid-cycle census and another round of reapportionment. But that may be easier said than done:
President Donald Trump on Thursday said he was ordering a “new and highly accurate CENSUS,” saying it will be based on the “information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024.”
“People who are in our country illegally will NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS,” he wrote in the Truth Social post announcing the move.
One point driving this effort and perhaps justifying it is the consensus that the 2020 census was a botch-up. It took place while entire states were locking down for the COVID-19 pandemic, complicating responses. That impact mainly took place during Trump’s first term, but attempts to ‘cure’ some of the issues got bungled again in the Biden Regency:
The 2020 census, which was conducted almost entirely under Trump’s first term, was roiled by the pandemic. The release of the results for the census was ultimately delayed until early 2021, under then-President Joe Biden, which scuttled Trump’s attempt to exclude noncitizens from apportionment totals.
The Census Bureau acknowledged in a 2022 report that Black people, Hispanics and Native Americans were likely undercounted, while white and Asian people were overcounted. While some degree of under- or overcount happens every census, the pandemic likely exacerbated the challenge.
The assessment of impacts differs depending on whom you ask. Some may agree with the Biden Regency’s assessment that minorities got undercounted, which is believed to be a chronic issue in some quarters in every census. Others, especially among Republicans and likely in the Trump administration, believe that the Census Bureau deliberately counted illegal immigrants in an effort to tilt reapportionment in favor of blue states. Trump himself clearly believes this, as his Truth Social post indicates.
Given that, one might expect everyone to support a new mid-cycle census, no? Er … no, and for obvious reasons. The states that benefited from the 2020 reapportionment don’t want to risk their seats in the next three election cycles. Some of those states have experienced a significant drain to red states even without the issue of illegal immigrants being counted in the previous census. Those states will face those consequences in the 2030 reapportionment cycle but have no desire to rush that process.
However, ordering another census isn’t going to be easy. First off, it takes quite a while to organize — and it will take longer for Trump, who wants a question included about US citizenship. His team tried to get that added to the 2020 census but failed to follow the Administrative Procedure Act in changing the rules, so courts struck it down. It will take at least months to implement that change, and then probably a year of court challenges, let alone the costs and prep time for a new census. Trump would be lucky to complete one by the end of his term, which then raises the question of whether reapportionment would even take effect before the 2028 cycle. If not, then it would only impact 2030, one single cycle before the normal census-reapportionment cycle would have been implemented.
Reapportionment is an even bigger question. There are no limits on how many censuses the US can conduct. The Constitution requires one every ten years, but is silent otherwise on censuses. However, in Article I Section 2, the language appears to limit reapportionment (“Enumeration,” the numbering of representatives to each state) to one time per decade:
The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.
Trump could fight that in court, but he’s not likely to win that argument, in part because the executive branch doesn’t technically control enumeration. The president reports the enumeration from the census to the House, but the House ultimately controls that decision under Article I Section II. If push came to shove, the House could refuse an enumeration, especially an extra enumeration, and the members who oppose it would almost certainly go to court to stop it. Courts might lean on the word “within” to allow an extra reapportionment, but I’d give that a low probability of success. Had it taken place closer to the end of the previous census as a corrective for bad data, perhaps the courts would be more open to the idea, but the partisan nature of this fight would probably sour any chance for success in a lawsuit.
This may be another instance where Trump should be taken seriously rather than literally. Trump is pushing states to reapportion their existing enumerations mid-cycle, and Democrats are reacting badly to that. Trump may be using a new census/’enumeration’ cycle as a threat to get them to back down. We’ll see how effective that may be, but don’t expect Census doorknockers in your neighborhood this year — or next.
Editor’s Note: Democrat politicians and their radical supporters will do everything they can to interfere with and threaten ICE agents enforcing our immigration laws.
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