The world waits for white smoke: Cardinals prepare for first vote on new Pope TODAY with prayers in the Vatican ahead of sealing themselves off from the outside world for secretive conclave

With all the pomp, drama and solemnity that the Catholic Church can muster, 133 cardinals on Wednesday begin the secretive, centuries-old ritual to elect a successor to Pope Francis, opening the most geographically diverse conclave in the faith’s 2,000-year history.

Hailing from 70 countries, the cardinals will be sequestered from the outside world, their cellphones surrendered and airwaves around the Vatican jammed to prevent them from all communications until they find a new leader for the 1.4 billion-member church.

Francis named 108 of the 133 ‘princes of the church,’ choosing many pastors in his image from far-flung countries like Mongolia, Sweden and Tonga that had never had a cardinal before.

His decision to surpass the usual limit of 120 cardinal electors and include younger ones from the ‘global south’ – those often marginalized countries with lower economic clout – has injected an unusual degree of uncertainty in a process that is always full of mystery and suspense.

Many hadn’t met one another until last week and lamented they needed more time to get to know one another, raising questions about how long it might take for one man to secure the two-thirds majority, or 89 ballots, necessary to become the 267th pope.

‘Wait and see, a little patience, wait and see,’ said Cardinal Mario Zenari, the Vatican’s ambassador to Syria as he arrived for the final day of pre-vote discussions.

In fact, so many cardinals who haven’t gone through the voting process have reportedly been brushing up by watching the Ralph Feinnes film Conclave, a movie that depicts the political process of electing a new pope that was released just four months before Pope Francis’ death. 

The cardinals begin the day by participating in a final pre-conclave Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica. The dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re, celebrates the Mass, which is meant to pray for cardinals to find the wisdom, counsel and understanding to elect a worthy new shepherd.

Re, 91, had presided at Francis’ funeral, delivering a heartfelt sermon recalling history’s first Latin American pope and the reforming 12-year papacy he oversaw.

At 4.30pm local time the cardinals walk solemnly into the frescoed Sistine Chapel, chanting the meditative ‘Litany of the Saints’ and the Latin hymn ‘Veni Creator,’ imploring the saints and the Holy Spirit to help them pick a pope.

Once there, they pledge to maintain secrecy about what is about to transpire and to not allow ‘any interference, opposition or any other form of intervention’ from outsiders to influence their voting.

Standing before Michelangelo’s vision of heaven and hell in ‘The Last Judgment,’ each cardinal places his hand on the Gospel and swears to carry out that duty ‘so help me God and these Holy Gospels, which I touch with my hand.’

After the cardinals take their oaths, a senior cardinal delivers a meditation. The master of papal liturgical ceremonies, Archbishop Diego Ravelli, calls out ‘Extra omnes,’ Latin for ‘all out.’ 

Anyone not eligible to vote then leaves and the chapel doors close, allowing the work to begin.

The cardinals don’t have to take a first vote on Wednesday, but they usually do. Assuming no winner is found, the Vatican said black smoke could be expected out of the Sistine Chapel chimney at around 7 p.m.

The cardinals retire for the night and return Thursday morning. They can hold up to two ballots in the morning and two in the afternoon until a winner is found.

While cardinals this week said they expected a short conclave, it will likely take at least a few rounds of voting. 

For the past century, it has taken between three and eight ballots to find a pope. John Paul I – the pope who reigned for 33 days in 1978 – was elected on the third ballot. His successor, John Paul II, needed eight. Francis was elected on the fifth in 2013.

While the cardinals are supposed to resist any ‘secular’ influences in their choice, such lobbying abounded in Rome in the days before the conclave as various groups reminded cardinals of what ordinary Catholics want in a leader.

Young Catholics penned an open letter reminding cardinals there is no church without young people, women and the laity. Conservative Catholic media slipped cardinals copies of a glossy book containing their assessments of contenders. Survivors of clergy sexual abuse warned cardinals they will be held accountable if they fail to find a leader who will crack down on decades of abuse and cover-up.

Advocates for women’s ordination were sending pink smoke signals over the Vatican to demand that women be allowed to be priests.

There are any number of challenges facing a new pope and weighing on the cardinals, above all whether to continue and consolidate Francis’ progressive legacy on promoting women, LGBTQ+ acceptance, the environment and migrants, or roll it back to try to unify a church that became more polarized during his pontificate. The clergy sex abuse scandal hung over the pre-conclave talks.

Since Francis chose 80% of the voters, continuity is likely but the form it might take is uncertain.

As a result, identifying front-runners has been a challenge. But some names keep appearing on lists of ‘papabile,’ or cardinals having the qualities to be pope.

Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is currently the bookies favourite and he has a good pedigree as Pope Francis number 2 at the Vatican, where he was Secretary of State and is seen as a top diplomat.

He was key in talks been the Vatican and China which gave Beijing a say in the appointment of clergy there – although this has earned him some critics among his fellow cardinals.

However he was caught up in a financial scandal centred in a £100 million property investment in London which led to Cardinal Angelo Becciu being convicted of fraud and embezzlement – therefore excluding him from the conclave.

Parolin has a solid background in diplomacy having been involved in talks to free 15 British sailors and marines captured by Iran in the Gulf in 2007 and is said to have a ‘global vision of the world’s problems’.

But in a sign of the machinations of a conclave the Vatican had to squash ‘rumours’ he was ill and therefore not fit enough to be Pope, that had circulated in recent days, allegedly by those after a more reforming successor

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, based in the Middle East for several years he speaks Italian, Hebrew, English and a touch of Arabic so because of his languages and background, is a seen as an expert on interfaith dialogue with Muslims and Jews.

His surname has caused much mirth in Italian media as it translates to ‘Pizza dance’ but Vatican watchers have described him as a ‘wise and hard working’ cardinal with a focus on peace.

When Hamas invaded Israel and seized hostages in October 2023 he offered himself in exchange making him a hero in the eyes of Israelis although in recent weeks he has been critical of the ongoing offensive in Gaza.

Like Pope Francis he has also spoken out for migrants, and he is seen as a safe pair of hands when it comes to finances having helped clear up some of the debts in his Jerusalem patriarchy.

But what is not in his favour is his young age as cardinals are fearful of a long papacy and many still remember Pope John Paul II who was in office for 26 years but by end of his life could barely make a decision as he was suffering from Parkinson’s.

Making up a trio of Italian favourites – and the home-grown media re saying it is time for an Italian as the last Popes have been Argentine (Francis), German (Benedict) and Polish (John Paul II) – is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69.

He is Archbishop of Bologna and is also cut from the same cloth as Francis, speaking for marginalised sectors of society namely the poor and migrants and has worked closely with charities.

Cardinal Zuppi is seen as a progressive and Pope Francis sent him to Moscow and Kiev in an attempt to sort out a peace deal for the war in Ukraine and prisoner swaps between the two sides.

He has spoken out against surrogacy but at the same time won plaudits by saying he would baptise a child born this way and he has spoken in favour of LGBT Catholics – much to the horror of some of the more conservative elements in the Vatican.

Cardinal Zuppi has also garnered the reputation of a TV darling in Italy appearing on daytime chat shows and is often seen cycling around the Vatican and his home town of Bologna where he revels in the nickname of a ‘street priest’.

Other contenders include the former Archbishop of Manila, cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, another seen in the same mould as Pope Francis earning the nickname the ‘Asian Francis’ because of his work with the poor in the Philippines.

After visiting Manila during a visit in 2015, Pope Francis told cardinal Tagle, ‘the future of the church is here’ after an astonishing six million people turned up for an open-air Mass – the largest ever in papal history.

Although against the ordination of women, he has spoken about the need for ‘open minded discussion’ on priests and celibacy in order to increase numbers of clergy in a time of dwindling numbers.

He has also been critical of Catholic church’s views on gays, single mothers and divorcees once saying:’ Inclusion is such a beautiful word and it should be the foundation the Church, which must always be welcoming, consider the humanity of all and remain present alongside everyone.’

American Robert Francis Prevost, 69, has also emerged in recent days as a contender which is a surprise as normally cardinals steer away from those that come from a ‘superpower’.

However, the tennis loving cardinal – who is also known as Father Bob – is seen as the ‘least American of the Americans’ and is seen as a silent reformer who would carry on the work of Pope Francis.

He has worked for many years in Peru and is popular choice with the Latin American and North American cardinals although he has kept his views on topics such as women clergy and same sex unions noticeably quiet.

Cardinal Prevost is seen as cautious and discreet but conservatives in the Church have accused him of covering up sex scandals in Peru and his native Chicago, but he has denied the allegations.

Another possible candidate in the ‘papabili’ (Pope contender) is the Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, 73, he is one of the few cardinals in the current 133 electors named by Pope John Paul II in 2003 aged just 51.

He is seen as a traditionalist and conservative by Vatican watchers and has spoken out markedly on homosexuality, same sex unions and women in the clergy. He is seen as prolific theologian and expert on church law.

On migration he has taken a somewhat slightly different view to Pope Francis saying in 2015 saying that a balanced position must be maintained alongside one that ‘does not endanger political stability’.

He once said taking in migrants was akin to human trafficking, conservatives are hoping he will tighten up the Church and he has been criticised by Italian media for hardly ever smiling and because of his views he has been dubbed the ‘anti Francis’.

There has never been an African Pope but in recent days the name of Congolese cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, has been gaining momentum in the Italian media.

Like Cardinal Erdo he is seen as a conservative and traditionalist and against same sex marriages and celibate priests.

Cardinal Besungu was appointed by Pope Francis in 2019 and supported his views on climate change calling it a ‘crisis and lived reality for people across Africa and a moral outrage’.

Like Pope Francis he has called for the ‘cry of the poor to be heard’ but although he may have shared his views on poverty he is certainly not as open to LGBT issues as the late pontiff.

Two years ago, he criticised Pope Francis for blessing same sex unions and said:’In Africa, homosexuality does not exist. You can bless homosexuals as you do with criminals, but to convert, not to promote deviance.’

According to cardinal Besungu, the West is the enemy of marriage, family and procreation, and is therefore forced to look for workers in Africa.

The voting follows a strict choreography, dictated by church law.

Each cardinal writes his choice on a paper inscribed with the words ‘Eligo in summen pontificem’ – ‘I elect as Supreme Pontiff.’ They approach the altar one by one and say: ‘I call as my witness, Christ the Lord who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who, before God, I think should be elected.’

The folded ballot is placed on a round plate and tipped into an oval silver and gold urn. Once cast, the ballots are opened one by one by three different ‘scrutineers,’ cardinals selected at random who write down the names and read them aloud. Cardinals can keep their own tally on a sheet of paper provided but must turn their notes in to be burned at the end of voting.

The scrutineers, whose work is checked by other cardinals called revisors, then add up the results of each round of balloting and write the results down on a separate sheet of paper, which is preserved in the papal archives.

As the scrutineer reads out each name, he pierces each ballot with a needle through the word ‘Eligo’ and binds them with thread and ties a knot. 

The ballots are then put aside and burned in the chapel stove along with a chemical to produce either black smoke to signal no winner, or white smoke to announce that a new pope has been elected.