There are good reasons to believe Texas will, as it almost always does, send a Republican to the United States Senate this November.
Never mind the electoral ramifications of an explosive, expensive, and completely unnecessary war with Iran. Never mind the price of gas at the pump, rising as a blockade strangles the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. bombers torch Iran’s oil fields. Never mind the heated, problematic Republican Senate primary that is headed to a costly and performative runoff unless President Donald Trump can convince one of two bullheaded men to drop out and save everyone a whole lot of time and resources. At the end of the day, it’s still Texas. Longhorns run it. Oil men run it. Cattle men run it. Most importantly, Democrats rarely run it.
It’s been nearly 40 years since a Democrat won a Senate seat in the Lone Star State, when Lloyd Bentsen bested Beau Boulter in the 1988 U.S. Senate election. Bentsen wasn’t a Democrat in the modern sense. He was pro-business, argued for tax cuts, and spoke in support of a strong national defense. He belonged to an older coalition of conservative Democrats that still ruled large swaths of the South before political realignment shifted many of his voters toward the Republican Party while the Democrats opted for a more progressive direction socially and politically.
The closest any Democrat has come to winning a Senate seat in Texas since Bentsen was the bright-eyed, bushy-tailed Beto O’Rourke, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) by less than 3 percentage points in 2018. By 2024, Cruz had consolidated support, defeating the Democratic nominee Colin Allred by a whopping 8 points. With Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) easily securing victory in each of his four Senate campaigns since 2002, Texas appeared to be firmly in the hands of the Republicans.
But Democrat James Talarico, an articulate 36-year-old from Round Rock, Texas, may be the most credible threat Texas Republicans have faced in a generation. Though Talarico’s outward appearance is boyish, he has already served four terms in the Texas House of Representatives, where he earned the distinction of being an introspective, measured, and policy-driven progressive among a sea of vocal culture warriors.
In September 2025, with little name recognition outside the state, the young Democrat announced his intention to challenge Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) to become the Democratic Party’s Senate nominee. Crockett held early advantages. The outspoken representative from Dallas had already established herself as a fierce critic of the Trump administration who could leverage her fundraising network, her talent for political combat, and the important black vote in Texas’s urban centers to propel her to the nomination.
But Talarico possessed a quality that stood in stark contrast to the bombastic Crockett—an air of humility. While Crockett has built her brand as a defiant voice against the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, Talarico has carved out a profile as an introspective Christian who bases political calculations on his Christian faith as much as his resistance to the mercurial messaging of Trump. And while Crockett has become daily fodder for the Boomer braintrust at Fox News, the attack line on Talarico is thinner and more opaque because of the gentle mannerisms displayed by the young Texan.
That hasn’t stopped right-wing pundits from attempting to tear him down. Some have labeled Talarico “too woke” for Texas, a claim he quickly dismissed in a Friday morning interview on MS NOW. “What do American people care more about—pronouns or prices?” Talarico responded defiantly. Others have argued he’s “too white” for the Democratic Party, a theory Talarico put to rest when he handily defeated Crockett, a black woman. And Senate Republicans, desperate to belittle Talarico, even went as far as to publish an artificial intelligence deepfake video of Talarico on X that was panned by independent viewers.
While Talarico deflected early critiques, Republican operatives have escalated their attacks, digging into old statements and videos such as when Talarico called God “non-binary.” In another clip, Talarico claims that “Jesus Christ himself was a radical feminist.” And even worse by their standards is a video showing Talarico arguing for abortion rights for the transgender community. For a political movement built on traditional social values, Republicans view Talarico as the final result of progressivism gone awry.
But soundbites do not make the man. Talarico proved as much in an early-campaign interview with podcaster Joe Rogan, one of the social media figures credited with propelling Trump to the presidency in 2024. In the nearly three-hour conversation, Talarico contextualized the GOP clips, arguing his points through a faith-driven perspective that sat at stark odds with the drive-by hit pieces found on X. And Rogan, known for tuning out partisan noise, responded positively—a reminder that Talarico can reach voters outside the usual Democratic base. And that is exactly what Talarico will have to accomplish if he wants to become the first blue senator from Texas in nearly half a century. But appealing to moderates while energizing the progressive base is what got Talarico to this point.
In the primary contest against Crockett, Talarico dominated the Hispanic vote, besting the Congresswoman in Latino-majority districts across the state. In El Paso, a county where Hispanics make up 80 percent of the vote, Talarico earned 62 percent of the vote. In Bexar County, another Hispanic-dominated region that includes the city of San Antonio, Talarico earned 57 percent of the count despite the majority of black voters selecting Crockett. He fared even better in the southern counties along the U.S.–Mexico border, winning several by double digits.
Talarico swept Hidalgo County after he formed an alliance with Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star who won the Democratic primary running as an outsider in the 15th Congressional District of Texas. Though some have suggested Talarico’s comments about Christianity will drive Hispanic voters away from Talarico, the numbers prove a very different reality. If Talarico struggled anywhere, it was among the urban, black demographics that overwhelmingly voted in favor of Crockett.
Crockett, who initially refused to accept the primary election results, quietly conceded the morning after the election was called. She had won major parts of Dallas, Houston, and Austin, but failed to curry favor among not only the Latinos who make up 40 percent of the Texas electorate, but also the more moderate white voters who sprang for Talarico. When asked if he would welcome Crockett’s support, Talarico said he would be “honored” and noted the congresswoman had expressed an interest in giving it.
But what should concern Conservatives most about Talarico isn’t just that he is consolidating the three major demographics required to win the general election in Texas, it’s the astonishing number of voters who showed up to cast votes in the Democratic primary. With 92 percent of estimated votes counted, more than 2.3 million Texans cast ballots in the Senate primary, the highest number of votes ever recorded in a Texas Senate Democratic primary. The contest between Talarico and Crockett more than doubled the average turnout rates for Texas Senate Democratic primaries in the 21st century.
The numbers must have unnerved White House officials as much as its online cohort of influencers who spent the better part of the past week whining about the “woke” uprising in Texas. Trump, who is yet to decide between endorsing the MAGA-adjacent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton or the incumbent Sen. Cornyn, decided to instead attack Talarico during an audio appearance on Brian Kilmeade’s show Friday morning. “He’s grossly incompetent.” Trump said. “He is so woke. He is beyond woke.”
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Beyond woke. Truly terrifying stuff, Mr. President! The Trump administration is waging a feckless, indulgent war in the Middle East. Gas is spiking, foreclosures are surging, and unemployment continues to rise. Desperate farmers across the nation are wondering whether they’ll make it to the end of the season as fertilizer prices spiral upward. In a time of war, when the already battered economy is gasping for air, Trump is busy mouthing the dogmas of America’s unending culture war.
If Talarico can continue to consolidate Hispanic, moderate, and progressive voters, November could see the Texas political landscape tested in ways few expected, including Trump, who is suddenly on the attack in a race that many considered smooth sailing for Republicans just a few short weeks ago. If Trump can’t convince Cornyn or Paxton to drop out of what would be a 12-week runoff campaign, Talarico is poised to gain significant ground as the Republicans attempt to sort out a potentially chaotic and nasty primary election.
Talarico appears two steps away from making the Texas Senate race a serious competition. Step One: consolidate the progressive base, turning out young, urban, and Latino voters who rarely see a Democrat they can get behind. Step Two: appeal to the moderates and swing voters in the suburbs, the white and independent voters who usually keep Texas red. If Talarico can execute both steps, he won’t just be challenging tradition, he could force Texas to reconsider what a Senate race in the Lone Star State really looks like for years to come.
