Nineteen horses will Run for the Roses on Saturday in Lexington, Kentucky at the 151st Kentucky Derby. Though three horses are strong favorites heading into this weekend’s premier thoroughbred race, all 19 appear live in a field that features a mix of speed horses and strong closers. Let’s dive in.
Legendary trainer Bob Baffert is back in Lexington hoping to make history as the only trainer to win the Kentucky Derby seven times. Baffert is fresh off a three-year suspension at Churchill Downs after his star 3-year-old colt, Medina Spirit, who won the 147th Kentucky Derby in 2021, was later disqualified when he tested positive for the anti-inflammatory corticosteroid betamethasone. (Medina Spirit died in December of the same year in unclear circumstances.)
Baffert, who is an enigma in a sport of enigmas, has brought Citizen Bull and Rodriguez to the Derby. Rodriguez, who was seen as the stronger of Baffert’s two horses, was scratched late on Thursday following the discovery of a “small but sensitive foot bruise” ahead of Saturday’s race. His owners will now look to feature the top colt in May’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Owner Mike Repole’s Grande, an underdog in this year’s race, was also scratched Friday morning due to a foot bruise. On Twitter, Repole admitted disappointment with the decision by track veterinarians after multiple clean x-rays of a slightly cracked heel on the horse throughout the week.
The two scratches means the John A. Shirreffs-trained Baeza, who ran head-to-head with Derby favorite Journalism at the Santa Anita Derby in April, will enter the field at the far outside gate. Son of Puca and McKenzie, Baeza will be ridden by French jockey Flavien Prat and is expected to be in the mix coming down the home stretch on Saturday. Shirreffs is known for training the historic filly Zenyatta who ran 19-1 in a sterling career that at one point saw the female horse defeat the best colts of her day at the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Baffert’s Citizen Bull drew gate 1 and will look to use his big speed to gain the lead along the rail right out of the gate. Victory will be a tall task for Bull, who likely needs to lead the race from gate to the finish. No horse has won the Derby from gate 1 since Ferdinand pulled an upset in the 1986 edition of the race.
Fabled trainer D. Wayne Lukas brings Virginia Derby winner American Promise to this year’s Kentucky Derby. The 89-year-old horse-whisperer from Wisconsin has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, American Promise is a chestnut colt and the largest horse in the field. In March, he smashed the track record at Colonial Downs and defeated second-place finisher Render Judgement, who is also in the Derby field, by seven lengths. Though he may suffer from a long layoff between the Virginia Derby and this weekend’s race, his starting position in gate 4 should give him ample opportunity to find a path into the top three.
The horse to beat in this year’s Derby is the Michael McCarthy–trained Journalism who looks every bit the part of a top-tier horse. The son of Curlin, one of America’s all-time greatest horses, Journalism is known for his closing speed and has won four out of his five starts. The bay colt triumphed in April’s prestigious Santa Anita Derby, a sign of strength heading into Kentucky. Ten winners of the Santa Anita have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, and, with a prime starting position in gate 7 on Saturday, it will be Journalism’s race to lose.
Two horses from Japan will feature in this year’s race. Luxor Cafe and Admire Daytona represent stables from the Land of the Rising Sun as both look to become the first Japanese horse to ever reign supreme in America’s premier thoroughbred fare. Luxor Cafe, who dominated the field at Fukuryo Stakes in March, is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah who edged out the Derby field in a thrilling finish to the 141st running of the competition in 2015. Admire Daytona won the UAE Derby in April but is the lesser favored of the two Nippon horses.
Publisher, another son of American Pharoah, is the only horse in this year’s race to have never won a race heading into the Derby. A horse that’s never won a race is referred to as a “maiden” and the last one to win the Kentucky Derby was nearly a century ago when Broker’s Tip outstretched Head Play in a finish that was marred by controversy after Head Play’s jockey accused the winner of rough riding down the stretch. Publisher will have a tall task ahead of him on Saturday but his impressive performance running a strong second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby means he will have a chance to win in a wide-open field.
The two big favorites besides Journalism heading into Saturday are Sandman and Sovereignty. Sandman is a favorite with the betting public, who are excited to back the grey colt known for his closing speed. The hype surrounding Sandman went to another level after it took top place in a thrilling, come-from-behind, finish at the Arkansas Derby. Sovereignty is a late runner who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March against a field that featured two other Derby horses. The colt, who led the Derby Dozen rankings all year, is hitting his stride at the right time and should be heavily considered to run away with the top prize.
The late pop star Toby Keith, who passed away from stomach cancer in February, has a horse in this year’s Derby. The longshot Render Judgement, who ran second in the Virginia Derby, will start from gate 13. There has been some controversy regarding the horse’s status heading into the weekend after it was discovered the horse has a quarter crack in its hoof but track veterinarians ruled the colt in Friday morning.
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Coal Battle will start out of gate 14 and the underdog is a fan favorite for those who follow horse racing throughout the year. At 72 years of age, Louisiana-native trainer Lonnie Briley had never won a grade-stakes race before Coal Battle rattled off four consecutive victories between November and February, capped off by a big performance in the Rebel Stakes. “It’s shocking,” Bailey said this week. “I’m at the end of my time and then I’ve come across with a horse like this.”
Some other horses to keep your eyes on heading into Saturday afternoon include Burnham Square, Final Gambit, and East Avenue. A recent win at the 9 furlongs at Keeneland has Burnham Square peeking at the right time. The late closer Final Gambit, trained by Brad Cox, is a blend of pedigree and power and rode the outside lane with power to victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks this March. East Avenue is one of the fastest horses in the race but could run into trouble as rain is expected to create muddy conditions on the track Saturday.
The Kentucky Derby is one of America’s greatest shows. On the eve of summer, it sits comfortably at the crossroads of competition and culture, in the American heartland from where the nation’s wide dreams often emanate. If nothing else, it’ll be a great party for all on Saturday. Hats out, mint juleps full, sit back and enjoy the show.
