The idea that the Conservatives can win on appealing to liberal, middle-class voters is delusional
After the defection of Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and other prominent Conservatives to Reform, some would like the Tory Party to tack to the centre and pursue liberal, middle-class voters. Much has been written about why this would be foolish. But let’s put some numbers on what pursuing this strategy — chasing voters in seats like Battersea and Brighton Kemptown that the Tories used to hold under David Cameron — would mean.
The first set of numbers demonstrates a fundamental fact that the Conservatives need to reckon with: to have any chance of winning power, they need to win back voters they have lost to Reform.
They lost these voters in a one-two punch. First, at the general election in 2024 when the Conservatives lost one-quarter (25 per cent) of their vote to Reform UK (and only 7 per cent to the Liberal Democrats and 10 per cent to Labour). That is roughly 3 million voters.
Second, they have lost another quarter (23 per cent) of their vote to Reform UK since that election. Look at how stark these numbers are — this is how 2024 Conservatives say they would vote now:
- Conservative 64 per cent
- Labour 2 per cent
- Liberal Democrat 2 per cent
- Reform UK 23 per cent
- Green 1 per cent
- Unsure 7 per cent
- Other 1 per cent
(JL Partners polling, January 2026)
The Tories have lost very small numbers — within the margin of error of zero — to Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens. They have lost 23 per cent to Reform — roughly 1.5 million voters.
With that one-two punch in mind, it is immensely difficult to see any path to power that does not seek to directly win back these 4.5 million Conservative to Reform defectors. Without them the Tories are toast.
Some might suggest the Tories should give up on these people and look elsewhere. I do not think that is viable. First, it would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. The Reform voters that have defected from the Tories at and since 2024 could come back — they are more open to voting Tory again than people who have defected to the Liberal Democrats or Labour. Second, I see no sign that the Cameroon liberal middle class voters can be plucked back into the Tory coalition; they left the party in 2017 and 2019 after the Brexit referendum and Britain’s exit from the EU, and are now solidly voters of the left. Pursuing only them would be a 15 per cent strategy, at best, for the Conservatives.
Kemi Badenoch appears to know this in principle. She wrote to her party last week that there could not be a drift back to the centre.
But she could end up in this position by accident as much as design. By declaring “Britain is not broken”, Badenoch fell into a huge trap set by Reform. It signalled to voters furious with the state of the country (and the Tories’ role in it) that she does not feel the country needs radical change. That might be an unfair reaction, but it is how disengaged voters who see that headline react. If Conservatives continue to let that be a dividing line, they will close the ears of the Reform defectors and will fall into a “15 per cent” strategy by accident regardless of the strategy Badenoch is aiming for.
How does the Conservative Party win back Reform voters? It is no easy task and, considering their disenchantment with the Tories and their positivity towards Nigel Farage, it probably requires an unforced error on Reform’s path. If Reform descends into infighting, Farage packs it in, or they make a mistake toxic to voters (perhaps involving siding with the increasingly unpopular Donald Trump), it is possible to see a moment in which voters’ heads swivel back to the Tories.
The moment that happens will be critical. At that point in time, the Conservative Party needs to feel totally different to how it does now. They need to feel like they are a party that shares those defecting voters’ values — on their diagnosis of the country, on immigration, on crime, on culture, on the economy, on contrition about their time in government. That may mean saying similar things (but not only similar things) to Reform. In some areas, such as migration, it may involve going even further than Reform has.
Of course they would also have to find ways to differentiate: leadership, experience, better plans, the economy, and presenting themselves as the most competent option. But to earn the credit of that differentiation, voters need to feel there has been wholesale change in the way the Party runs. That needs ultimate contrition and disowning of key parts of the Tory record in government. Evidencing that means policy change, but also decisions on personnel to show the party is serious — whether that is ejecting former leader Liz Truss, or sacking current Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel (an architect of the high immigration levels that put the Tories in the quandary they are now in). If this sounds familiar, it is because these are similar points made by Rob Jenrick when he was in the Conservative Party and since.
The numbers show the only path to power for the Conservatives is through those who have left the party to Reform
What is certain is that the status quo is not an option. The Conservatives cannot simply present themselves as an option in the middle of Reform or Labour — even if such a position is intellectually coherent, they will be squeezed out of the conversation. Some say that the Tories should focus on the economy, and that by the next election this could be the defining issue at the expense of migration. But that misunderstands how voters vote, especially those who have defected to Reform: they do not look down a list of parties and decide which is best on the given issue of the day, they vote based on which party feels like it shares their values the most.
The numbers show the only path to power for the Conservatives is through those who have left the party to Reform. It is a path that goes through a group that has defined British politics for the last decade: working and lower middle class, white, Leave-voting people in late middle age and older. If you are a Tory or Tory MP reading this: they are the only way you keep your seat or get more seats at the next election. If you are a liberal or centrist Tory or Tory MP reading this: there are not many people in the country who think like you, and there are very few people in the country who think like you and would consider voting Conservative.
As I said earlier, this is basically what Rob Jenrick identified. Kemi Badenoch might be rid of Rob Jenrick. She might not want to think about him any more. But the contours of his prescription of why the Conservatives lost and what they need to be is the one she must follow if she wants any chance of winning power.
