As the saying goes, a week is a lifetime in politics. For recent evidence, look to Texas.
The state didn’t have a confirmed congressional district map at the start of last week. Politicians on both sides of the aisle weren’t sure whether they should retire, or if – and where – they should run again. Uncertainty around the fate of President Donald Trump’s push for state lawmakers to create five additional Republican seats in Congress hung thick in the air.
Now, the state has a congressional map approved by the U.S. Supreme Court. But one of the more compelling races in the country – for a seat in the U.S. Senate – has also taken shape as candidates have solidified their running plans. The five-person race in 2026 could not only make or break the GOP’s three-seat Senate majority for the following two years, but it could also help define the identity of the two major parties going forward.
Why We Wrote This
It’s been a big month for politics in Texas, after the Supreme Court approved redistricted congressional maps and top candidates solidified running plans. The Senate race emerged as a marquee race with distinct choices in both the Democratic and GOP primaries.
Texas is a deeply conservative state; it’s been three decades since a Democrat last won a statewide race here. What is popular with this state’s voters will not reflect the entirety of the country. Yet questions over the candidates’ style and substance here mirror national debates over what types of politicians resonate most with voters in this political moment.
Who will those voters choose among the diverse array of candidates? The experienced and conservative incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn? Or his arguably more conservative – but more scandal-marked – primary opponent, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton? U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also running on the Republican side, and has fared reasonably well in early polling.
For Democrats, will they choose the youthful, faith-guided progressive in state Rep. James Talarico? Or the firebrand, and social media superstar, Rep. Jasmine Crockett?
In a way, this election is a combination of all the questions that have dominated Texas politics for the past three decades. How conservative will the Republican nominee be? What will it take for a Democrat to end the party’s statewide losing streak? With the primaries in four months, and the general election in 11, the answers are far away. But the race is shaping up to be one of the defining contests of this election cycle.
“We’re even more polarized now” than in recent elections, says Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston.
Voters will face a choice, he adds: “Who’s the better fit for their ideological vision, and who can win?”
The red half
Since first joining the Senate in 2002, Mr. Cornyn is facing perhaps the toughest reelection fight of his career. Over the decades, he has navigated his party’s gradual rightward shift. Now, however, the GOP is more ideologically conservative than ever, and it’s beholden to the singular influence of Mr. Trump.
Senator Cornyn “has been able to adapt as needed,” says Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston. But “it was harder for him to adapt in the Trump era.”
Mr. Cornyn, Dr. Jones adds, faces the prospect of his primary opponents “remind[ing] Texas Republican voters of every center-right or compromise position [he] has taken over the past decade.”
This includes helping to shepherd a gun-safety bill through Congress following a mass shooting in 2022 at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. It also includes his skepticism of Mr. Trump over the years.
Mr. Paxton, meanwhile, brought a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in four states because of alleged fraud. (The U.S. Supreme Court ultimately ruled against him, stating that he did not have standing to sue and that there was no evidence of widespread fraud.)
Unfortunately for Mr. Paxton, his conservative bona fides are clashing with a long history of personal and political controversy. For a decade, he faced charges of securities fraud. (He settled the case last year.) In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas legislature impeached him on charges of bribery and abuse of office. (The state Senate acquitted him in votes along party lines.) Most recently, his wife, Angela – a state senator and a devout Christian – announced that she was filing for divorce “on biblical grounds.” In court filings, she alleged adultery.
Recent polls have shown Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton in a virtual dead heat, but that baggage should be enough to render Mr. Paxton an unviable candidate in a general election, some Republicans argue.
“Religious conservatives in the party are not happy with Paxton,” says Gary Polland, editor in chief of the Texas Conservative Review, an online newsletter.
The GOP’s majority in the U.S. Senate also complicates the fundraising math should the embattled attorney general win the nomination. It could also complicate a Trump endorsement, says Mr. Polland.
“I don’t anticipate Trump endorsing Paxton,” he adds. “Trump wants to win [the Senate] in November. … If Paxton is the nominee, it’s going to require spending significant resources [in Texas] that would be better spent in other races.”
The Paxton campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
The blue half
Indeed, the prospect of a Paxton nomination has given Democrats hope that the Senate seat could be winnable.
Democrats “desperately want to run against Ken Paxton,” says Matt Mackowiak, a GOP consultant and a senior adviser for the Cornyn campaign.
“He would be the top of the ticket,” he adds. “And we don’t have to look back far to see the effects of having a weak top-of-ballot candidate.”
In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz ran for reelection and beat Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 points – the closest Senate race in the state since 1978. Senator Cruz’s unpopularity in the state, combined with Mr. Trump’s unpopularity among Democrats, helped fuel a strong showing from Democratic voters. The party is hoping for a similar formula next November.
Yet, Democrats have a biennial problem they will still need to overcome: Do they win by convincing Republican voters to split their ticket and vote for a Democrat – likely only feasible by nominating a more moderate candidate? Or do they win by getting as many Democrats and non-voters to the polls as possible through fiery rhetoric?
Mr. Talarico appears to have chosen the former.
His profile grew first as a face of the Democratic resistance to the GOP’s redistricting push, an effort that drew the praise of former President Barack Obama. In July, he made a head-turning appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, earning Mr. Rogan’s recommendation that he run for president. An orthodox campaign “is [not] going to cut it in Texas,” Mr. Talarico said during a September interview. He would like to do a town hall with a Republican Party group “so we can have a real dialogue,” he added.
Ms. Crockett appears to have chosen the latter.
Having earned nationwide recognition for viral clashes with Republican colleagues in Congress, she declared at a campaign launch event that Mr. Trump “better get to work because I’m coming for you.”
Republicans have since claimed that they nudged Ms. Crockett toward running because they believe she would be too polarizing in a general election to win. While recent polls show her leading Mr. Talarico, they also show her with lower favorability ratings than every candidate other than Mr. Paxton and Mr. Cornyn among Texas voters.
In truth, both Democrats would be polarizing in November, experts say.
“Both candidates are progressive,” says Professor Rottinghaus.
Mr. Talarico “doesn’t demonize Republicans as frequently or vociferously as Jasmine Crockett,” he adds. “That’s going to make him look moderate. But it’s moderation in tactics and tone, not moderation in policy.”
On sex and gender issues, for example, Mr. Talarico has said that “God is non-binary.” In another speech, he noted that “there are many more than two biological sexes. In fact, there are six.”
Neither the Crockett nor the Talarico campaigns responded to requests for comment.
“Even more polarized”
At bottom, the midterm elections next year will feature one of the most high-stakes and competitive elections in Texas for decades. Both parties will hold tough primaries featuring politically vulnerable candidates – primaries that could well lead to run-off elections in May.
Texas voters will be asked again and again who they want to represent them, and they will have to answer age-old political questions around experience or novelty, compromise or ideological purity. The nation will be watching.
While statewide elections in Texas have developed a familiar rhythm in the years of Republican dominance, because of “the size of the office, and the stakes for Texas and the nation,” says Professor Rottinghaus, the contest next year is going to be entirely new.
“It’s a movie we’ve seen before, but it’s one that is now approaching blockbuster status,” he adds.
