Don’t worry, it will be over soon. No, not the winter weather, or Keir Starmer‘s premiership (although come to think of it…). I mean the daily speculation about what will or won’t be in Rachel Reeves‘ confounded Budget.
The Chancellor presumably put off the event for as long as she could for two reasons: a forlorn hope that something would turn up and she would be spared coming back for a second helping of tax rises having promised not to; and to give her plenty of time to prepare the public for another raid on their finances.
No doubt this seemed like a good idea at the time. But the effect is that in terms of political news – apart from the odd entertaining resignation, the continued shambles over migration, sinister plans for compulsory digital ID and a spate of accidental prisoner releases that could be called a comedy of errors if it weren’t so serious – the country has been talking about Reeves and her avaricious intentions since summer.
The business of managing expectations, or ‘pitch rolling’ as they call it in Westminster, has included rumoured new taxes on homes, cars, pensions, partnerships and gambling, as well as changes to National Insurance and ISA allowances, and a new levy on overseas investors who have the temerity (or sense) to leave the country.
The pitch was rolled for an income tax rise, then abruptly de-rolled. Even Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has started referring to it as the ‘hokey-cokey Budget’. While the voters might not know what’s coming specifically on Wednesday, they know in general.
Asked in one of my focus groups last week what she was expecting from the Budget, one woman said: ‘A smaller Christmas present.’
Yet knowing what is on the way doesn’t make people any less cross about it. I found the overwhelming majority of voters felt that they are already ‘doing their bit’ – in the Chancellor’s pitch-rolling words – and many resented being asked for ever-more tax with nothing to show in return.
The anger is compounded by the growing conviction that Britain’s dire economic situation can no longer be blamed on the Tory inheritance. Most voters believe Reeves is planning to raise tax again because of decisions made by the Labour Government, rather than factors outside its control.
Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch (pictured) at the start of the week, holding talks with farmers at an emergency food and farming summit
Most voters believe we spend too much, rather than tax too little.
They remember Reeves and Starmer abandoning any attempt to control the ballooning cost of welfare. Hiking taxes while scrapping the two-child benefit cap, which Labour MPs loathe but most voters want to keep, would add insult to injury.
Despite all this, surprisingly little has moved in the past few months in the big political picture.
Reform have taken the lead, the Conservatives have somewhat stabilised their position, and Labour have dropped gently into a battle for third place with the Greens.
But recent dramas have not really changed how people see the parties. Labour have disappointed many of those who elected them, but some still give them the benefit of the doubt after 14 years of the Tories.
Reform offers potentially dramatic change, but there are doubts over the coherence of their plans and whether the party harbours elements of bigotry or prejudice.
And despite ideas such as scrapping stamp duty being noticed, the Conservatives are still battling to get a hearing or make an impression on the national consciousness.
This was always going to be the case, whoever led the Tories and whatever they did or said.
As I advised in the introduction to Losing It, my aptly named (if I say so myself) analysis of the party’s 2024 defeat: ‘Having just booted you out of office, people have seen and heard quite enough of you for a while… You won’t be able to get anyone to look at you until they are ready. But when they do look, you have to be ready too.’
That moment may well be approaching. The ‘push factor’ away from Labour will need to reach a certain intensity before any ‘pull factor’ towards the Tories takes effect.
The Budget – on top of the Government’s other failings, not to mention growing doubts over the future of Starmer’s leadership – could give many a reason to look more seriously at the alternatives.
The fact that the Budget response is made by the leader of the official Opposition is a huge opportunity for Kemi Badenoch.
Rachel Reeves (pictured) delivering a speech at 9 Downing Street ahead of the forthcoming Budget this Wednesday
More voters will see it than watch PMQs, or saw clips of her conference speech. Notoriously, it is one of Parliament’s most demanding occasions.
But answering a blizzard of announcements at perilously short notice is only one part of it, and the least important.
Nailing the Government’s cackhanded economic management is another part, but this is the easiest – people do it every day, up and down the country. And while she needs to echo people’s anger, this in itself just fuels the idea that new ideas are needed.
Most importantly, this is Badenoch’s chance to show those ideas. She must have a serious analysis that explains not just how Labour are failing, but why: why spending is out of control, why public services get no better despite ever-higher taxes, why Britain is so unproductive and living standards so stagnant, and why successive governments have seemed powerless to do anything about it.
And she must show that tough solutions are there, if we have the appetite for them.
At her best, Badenoch is able to convey ideas in a way that combines principle, humour and a knack for telling home truths. This is a moment for her to seize.
Paradoxical as it may seem, the worse Labour get, the better the Conservatives have to be.
Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. X/Facebook @LordAshcroft
