Russia has responded ambiguously to NATO allegations that it sent a wave of military drones into Polish territory during a large air raid in western Ukraine early Wednesday – adding more uncertainty to a war already complicated by the incursion. The Russian Defense Ministry has insisted only that there had been “no plans” to attack any target in Poland.
Polish officials said that at least 14 Russian combat drones entered Polish airspace, leading NATO aircraft to scramble and shoot down at least four of them. Poland immediately invoked NATO’s Article 4, which triggers a consultation process among the transatlantic allies over a putative security threat to any member.
Following that meeting, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a statement denouncing Russia’s “reckless behavior” and urging stepped-up vigilance against further violations of the alliance’s airspace.
Why We Wrote This
Moscow’s defenders argue that the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace on Wednesday might be a Ukrainian conspiracy. Critics say it’s simply the Kremlin testing Western resolve.
The Kremlin declined to comment and – in a twist that suggests it wants the matter to be viewed as a technical misunderstanding rather than a political crisis – referred journalists to the Russian Defense Ministry. The ministry admitted in a subsequent statement that it had launched a major drone assault against western Ukraine in that time frame, but insisted it had no intention of hitting anything in Poland.
The Defense Ministry statement blamed Poland for blowing the issue out of proportion, but added that “in order to fully clarify what happened for all parties interested in preventing further escalation of the situation, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is ready to hold consultations with the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Poland on this topic.”
The incident is the worst to potentially threaten a third party in the 3 1/2-year-old Russian war against Ukraine, which has seen several examples of Ukrainian and Russian drones and missiles go astray and land on NATO territory. Those mistakes were sometimes blamed on the intense electronic warfare measures being deployed by all sides.
Russian defense expert Viktor Litovkin, the military editor at the official TASS news agency, says that the whole affair is quite murky. For one thing, he says, citing Western news reports, the remains of Russian drones so far found in Poland indicate that they were harmless decoys and not armed assault vehicles.
“Why would Russia send dummy drones into Poland, which had no warheads and did no damage?” he says. It’s highly suspicious, he adds, that this alleged incursion has taken place on the eve of the major Zapad-2025 military exercises between Russia and Belarus, which are slated to begin on Sept. 12.
“Even if they turn out to be Russian drones, it doesn’t mean our side sent them into Poland. Plenty of our drones have fallen into Ukrainian hands,” he says. “I think this is a deliberate provocation, designed to drag NATO into the war against Russia.”
Igor Korotchenko, editor in chief of the Russian magazine National Defense, echoed Mr. Litovkin’s accusations. “It is a clear example of an operation under a false flag,” he argues. He claims that Ukrainian special forces launched the drone incursion “to try to influence [U.S. President] Donald Trump’s position” on the war.
Mr. Korotchenko contends also that the drones Russia used could not have reached Poland. But if the 7,000-kilometer range (about 4,350 miles) provided by the Ministry of Defense is correct, the drones should have been capable of entering Polish airspace from Russian territory.
Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for President Vladimir Putin turned Kremlin opponent in exile, suggests that the Russians are deliberately probing NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve.
“If we don’t see a tough reaction [from NATO] in the form of new sanctions or strengthened efforts to boost Polish air defenses, and probably some measures to protect the Ukrainian sky, Putin will be encouraged,” he says. “It means he’ll soon be back with even bigger provocations.”
