Could President Donald Trump officially recognize Palestine as an independent state on his trip to the Middle East? That’s what some analysts are predicting as a lively debate rages in the Arab media sphere over just how far the U.S. president will go while abroad.
There had already been some writing on the wall that Trump’s Middle East tour — which includes visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates — was not coming in the midst of a period of unalloyed harmony between the administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hebrew-language Israeli media reported Thursday that “the U.S. president is disappointed with Prime Minister Netanyahu” after he pressured now-former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz to sign off on an all-out military action by Israel against Iran.
The Washington Post also reported that, prior to a White House meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in March, Waltz looked to be “engaged in intense coordination with Netanyahu about military options against Iran,” something Trump opposed.
A source said Waltz “wanted to take U.S. policy in a direction Trump wasn’t comfortable with because the U.S. hadn’t attempted a diplomatic solution … It got back to Trump and the president wasn’t happy with it.”
That makes many wonder if Trump will use the occasion to join the 147 U.N. members which consider Palestine to be a legitimate state, albeit with some conditions.
The closest report we’ve seen to something like this comes from an unnamed “Gulf diplomatic source” who talked anonymously with American-based Middle East-centric news outlet The Media Line — who said he felt confident in predicting that outcome.
“President Donald Trump will issue a declaration regarding the State of Palestine and American recognition of it, and that there will be the establishment of a Palestinian state without the presence of Hamas,” he said in an article published Friday evening.
“If an announcement of American recognition of the state of Palestine is made, it will be the most important declaration that will change the balance of power in the Middle East, and more countries will join the Abraham Accords.”
Should the United States recognize a Palestinian state?
Other sources disagreed — including a former Gulf diplomat willing to go on record, unlike the anonymous source predicting U.S. endorsement of Palestinian statehood.
Ahmed Al-Ibrahim, a former diplomat, said he thought this would be about tariffs and trade.
“I don’t expect it to be about Palestine,” the source said.
“Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and King Abdullah II of Jordan have not been invited. They are the two countries closest to Palestine, and it would be important for them to be present at any event like this.”
Others The Media Line contacted agreed.
“This is about major economic deals that will take place in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Perhaps U.S. President Donald Trump hinted at this when he told the American people to ‘buy stocks now, before his big announcement in the next two days,’” Ahmed Boushouki, a Saudi political analyst, said.
So, this kind of depends on who you believe: A source that’s anonymous, but in the loop, or analysts familiar with the region but perhaps not in on the diplomacy.
The sticking point of such a deal would be, naturally, that Hamas controls one half of the Palestinian Authority — the smaller half, but the more troublesome one — and has built a military infrastructure intertwined with civilian infrastructure because it was willing to hold its own population hostage under the wager that Israel would buckle and not view the murder and rape of thousands of its innocent civilians as an existential threat.
It was a gamble with human life that they lost, and Gazans have suffered most cruelly because of their leadership. But the kind of pestilent leaders willing to make such a bet won’t fold if they still holds a few cards — in this case, the lives of its own citizens, as well as a few dozen Israeli hostages.
The thorough and verifiable de-Hamasification of the Gaza Strip — to say nothing of replacing the broken Fatah leadership in the West Bank which, while less pernicious in its disregard for human life, has proved itself just as broken in all but its function as an effective funnel of money from foreign benefactors almost directly into the well-lined pockets of Fatah’s numerous satraps — would have to be a precondition for U.S. recognition of Palestine. That seems as likely to happen as all the little children in Rafah clapping their hands simultaneously.
Then again, Trump has proved to be a man who can make such clapping occur on occasions when it seems downright impossible — and here, a round of coordinated applause would manage to stun many, something the president is fond of doing.
Americans, however, ought to demand that we can all hear that synchronized applause — not just our president — before the United States recognizes a profoundly dysfunctional corner of the globe’s right to self-govern.
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