It’s way too early to know how the 2028 Democratic primaries are going to go, but if pollster Nate Silver’s “mock draft” of candidates is any indication, it’s basically a class of candidates full of political Ryan Leafs.
For those of you who don’t like the sportsball, Leaf was one of two quarterbacks chosen at the top of the 1998 NFL Draft. The other, Peyton Manning, you’ve probably heard of. Believe it or not, there was actually a debate over which one of them should go first overall. Leaf, whose immaturity and inability to read pro defenses were the two biggest stumbling blocks to his success, compiled a record of 4-17 with 14 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in two years with the San Diego Chargers, who picked him second overall, and the Dallas Cowboys, who gave him a second chance he didn’t deserve.
Obviously, the Colts dodged a bullet by picking Manning, widely considered one of the greatest QBs of all time. But what if every quarterback — heck, every player who was considered to have some modicum of talent — was basically Ryan Leaf underneath?
Because that’s basically the conclusion Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and another political podcaster, Galen Druke, found out when they did their early draft of the 2028 candidate class.
The video was posted to Silver’s Substack, “Silver Bulletin,” on Wednesday. Druke had the first choice. (WARNING: Following the provided link will lead to a video that contains vulgar language, which may offend some readers.)
His take? Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Silver was nonplussed, although not because of the fact that she was too leftist for him: “F*** you! That was going to be my f***ing first pick!,” Silver said, according to Fox News. “We both are on the AOC bus.”
He went further, saying she had a “20 percent chance” of being the Democratic nominee.
Druke said there were “a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” citing a high net favorability among Democrats in a recent survey.
Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
“So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party, and there’s a lot of people who could potentially get on board with her. But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support,” he said.
AOC is currently barnstorming the nation with Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, and it hasn’t escaped the notice of people that she’s raised nearly $10 million in the past three months, which she hardly needs to maintain her sinecure seat in New York.
There are problems with AOC as the candidate, however, beyond the fact that she would be the first self-styled socialist to ever be a Democratic nominee. (One could argue that FDR or Barack Obama fit the bill, but neither were willing to apply the label to themselves, while AOC will happily do so.)
First, it’s worth noting that the path Ocasio-Cortez might take is complicated a bit by her position if she stays in it; the last person to win a major party nomination whose most recent legislative experience was in the House of Representatives was Democrat William Jennings Bryan in 1908; Bryan had twice won the nomination previously and twice gotten wrecked in the general election. (He did no better the third time.)
As for a winning candidate, you have to go all the way back to Republican James Garfield in 1880. Garfield was a compromise after the convention was deadlocked between former President Ulysses S. Grant, Sen. James Blaine and Treasury Secretary John Sherman. Garfield wasn’t a radical in the political scheme of the time, and didn’t prove to be a radical once he got into office, however — although it’s worth noting that he didn’t have time to prove himself much of anything, having been offed by an assassin just months into his tenure in the White House.
Whether this is a peculiarity of history or the fact that the different processes in the House of Representatives and the larger number of members doesn’t lend itself to the accumulation of power is a matter of debate; I’d argue it’s the latter, but the fact is that it exists. Of course, therein lies the conundrum for AOC: Polls show her leading in a primary challenge against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer for his seat in 2026, but if she gives the impression that it’s just a springboard to a presidential run, that lead is likely to disappear in a right hurry.
And then there are the gaffes. You might forgive Joe Biden for them because he has no brain cells left to filter the words out, or assume that Kamala Harris was a deer in the headlights when she was forced to go off-script. AOC, meanwhile, will loudly and proudly say dumb stuff on-script, and is worse when forced to respond to any contradictions to her worldview:
Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attacks Israel, calls them the occupiers of Palestine.
When pressed on what she meant she struggled to give an answer and then admitted she does not know what she is talking about. pic.twitter.com/e3Uq1eupD3
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) July 16, 2018
But, to be fair, it’s not that the other picks were much better.
Here were the top picks for both men:
Results! I thought I was gonna surprise everyone by taking AOC first, but Galen won at rock-paper-scissors and chose her first instead!https://t.co/DAlKWnP5rQ pic.twitter.com/zL80ForTaY
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 16, 2025
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Silver’s first pick, has mostly distinguished himself by being 1) the sane choice for running mate that Kamala Harris didn’t take and 2) sorta sane. That is to say, his entire raison d’être in the 2028 race, should he choose to run, is that he’s not anyone else.
Second pick? Kamala Harris (do we really need to go over why this would fail, considering we’ve so recently seen an object lesson in how this will go?) and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (Spartacus!).
Third picks: former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. This is still the top half of the draft, people. The guy who nuked our supply lines and the oleaginous stoat/part-time podcaster who’s managed to dig the Golden State’s ditch even deeper are that far up the list. I know it’s early days, but has the American left learned nothing from the past decade?
I don’t know that there’s much more to say other than the fact that Andrew Cuomo, Mark Cuban, and Stephen A. Smith are also on the list. That is to say, of the top 20 candidates on the list, one is a serial sexual harasser and elderly-person killer, and the other two are essentially sports figures with sidelines in business and facile political takes. That’s your top 20 roster, Democrats. Read it and weep.
Granted, this isn’t necessarily serious once you get past the top 10, and at that point you might as well take a flyer on someone ridiculous. However, when AOC — a flighty champagne socialist whose accomplished little of substance but still has a massive social media following to show for it — is considered the front-runner for 2028 for both Silver and his compatriot, why not just admit that you’ve got a team full of Ryan Leafs and concede the White House to J.D. Vance now?
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