A new poll of Republican voters further confirms the generational divide on Israel policy among conservatives, with majorities of younger Republicans favoring cuts to U.S. weapons transfers, opposing renewal of the decade-long $38 billion aid memorandum with Israel, and supporting independent U.S. investigations into the numerous cases where Americans have been killed by the Israeli military.
The data, gathered by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project and shared with The American Conservative, demonstrates that younger Republicans increasingly reject what has been labeled by critics as “Israel First” orthodoxy within the GOP, favoring a more restrained, oversight-driven approach instead. Among Republicans under 45 years old, 51 percent say they would prefer a 2028 candidate for president who supports reducing taxpayer funded arms to Israel, while only 27 percent prefer a candidate who wants to maintain or increase those weapons transfers.
Since October 7, 2023, the U.S. is estimated to have spent more than $31.4–33.8 billion on Israel and its various wars. That is in addition to the annual $3.8 billion that the foreign government receives from the 10-year MOU signed under the Obama administration. Israel has already signaled that it intends to negotiate a new MOU worth roughly twice as much and lasting twice as long. But when Republican voters were asked whether Washington should renew the agreement at all, only 24 percent of Republicans under 45 said yes, while 53 percent said it should not be renewed.
The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing among Republican voters follows the same generational and media divides seen elsewhere in the IMEU poll. While Netanyahu has a net favorability of +40 with older Republicans, among Republicans under 45, his net rating falls to just +2. Likewise, Republicans who regularly watch Fox News (who have a median age of roughly 68) rate Netanyahu at +49, while those who do not watch Fox News place him at only +11. Foreign influence over the American information system emerged as a particular point of concern, with 37 percent of all Republicans saying organizations supportive of the Israeli government exert too much influence over the media.
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Republicans of all ages are broadly aligned on the need for accountability when Israelis harm Americans. Fifty-nine percent say the United States should conduct its own investigations into cases involving Americans killed by Israel, a view shared by 63 percent of Republicans under 45 and 58 percent of those over 45. Those results echo the long-running grievances from families of Americans killed by Israeli forces and settlers. In two high-profile cases, the deaths of Shireen Abu Akleh and Saif Musallet, the U.S. government ultimately deferred to Israeli investigators, who absolved the IDF and settler perpetrators.
Nearly half of Republicans—48 percent—say that legitimate criticism of Israel is too often mislabeled as antisemitic, a view held by 50 percent of Republicans under 45 and 47 percent of those over 45, while only 23 percent disagreed. That sentiment comes as the U.S. government conditions federal funding to various universities over the adoption of novel anti-antisemitism standards, including pressure to adopt IHRA foreign speech codes on campuses. Earlier this year, the State Department attempted to deport various visa-holders over their views toward the foreign government of Israel.
The findings suggest that the GOP’s long-standing deference to Israel is unlikely to survive generational turnover, with younger conservatives signaling an appetite for a more independent U.S. posture—if not an outright “clean break” from a foreign government whose leaders continue to travel around the world claiming to control our own.
