Poll shows Reform with a record SEVEN POINT lead – enough to see Nigel Farage as PM with a 40-strong majority… and Kemi Badenoch losing her seat

A poll showed Reform’s support hitting a new record high today as Tory and Labour panic mounts after the local elections.

Nigel Farage‘s party was on 29 per cent in the latest YouGov poll carried out in the wake of the local elections, up three on last week.

That was seven points ahead of Labour, who were down one. The research found the Tories were on just 17 per cent, the lowest since the end of Theresa May‘s leadership.

Electoral Calculus projections suggest that would be enough for Reform to win a 40-strong majority if repeated at a general election. Such a shift could see Kemi Badenoch lose her Essex North West seat and Angela Rayner defeated in Ashton-under-Lyme.  

A separate survey has suggested Labour is on track to come third in Welsh elections due next year – a long way behind Plaid and Reform. 

Keir Starmer is under huge pressure to change direction following the dire performance in the local contests. Labour lost the Runcorn by-election along with nearly 200 councillors as Reform translated its polling into real power. 

The PM has admitted the Government must ‘explain the decisions that we’ve taken’ after a ‘disappointing’ set of results.

The Red Wall group of Labour MPs met last night and issued a statement urging Sir Keir to ‘rebuild’ trust.

The goup said that ‘responding to the issues raised by our constituents, including on winter fuel, isn’t weak’. 

Nigel Farage's (pictured yesterday) party was on 29 per cent in the latest YouGov poll carried out in the wake of the local elections, up three on last week

Nigel Farage’s (pictured yesterday) party was on 29 per cent in the latest YouGov poll carried out in the wake of the local elections, up three on last week

Electoral Calculus projections suggest that would be enough for Reform to win a 40-strong majority if repeated at a general election

Electoral Calculus projections suggest that would be enough for Reform to win a 40-strong majority if repeated at a general election

Louise Haigh, who resigned as a Cabinet minister in November, said a shift was needed on winter fuel and benefits curbs.

She told the BBC’s Newsnight: ‘I don’t think we can underestimate how catastrophic those results were last week for the Labour Party… people don’t really feel that we’re taking the action to address the issues that matter, whether that be on the cost of living, the public services or on the economy more widely, and that’s very frustrating.

‘I think the unpopular decisions are overshadowing the good ones. I think this Labour government has a lot to offer, whether it be the Employment Rights Bill, the increase in the minimum wage, the massive investment in our NHS, but people have heard the winter fuel allowance and the welfare cuts overwhelmingly.’

Ms Haigh said Labour should ‘properly explore’ a tax on the wealthy as an alternative to ‘cutting public spending and cutting money from the people who can least afford it’.

She told the BBC: ‘There are other options on the table be it a land tax, be it proper reform of council tax that hasn’t been reformed since the ’90s.

‘We just cannot continue down this path that means, as I say, we keep coming and raiding those people that can least afford it.’

Welsh First Minister Baroness Eluned Morgan said yesterday the decision to means-test the previously universal benefit was ‘something that comes up time and again’ as she called for a ‘rethink’.

The Guardian reported that, while a full restoration of the universal winter fuel payment was unlikely, the Government was considering whether to increase the £11,500 threshold over which pensioners are no longer eligible for the allowance.

However, Downing Street flatly ruled out a change in the policy yesterday – hours after Health Secretary Wes Streeting seemed to leave the door open.

Keir Starmer is under huge pressure to change direction following the dire performance in the local contests

Keir Starmer is under huge pressure to change direction following the dire performance in the local contests

The decision last July to restrict the winter fuel payment to the poorest pensioners was intended to save around £1.5billion a year, with more than nine million people who would have previously been eligible losing out.

Cabinet ministers acknowledged the winter fuel payment decision had hit the party at the ballot box.

Asked whether the cut had been part of Labour’s poor electoral performance, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said: ‘I think that has been a feature.

‘I think the Prime Minister himself has said that and we’re not sugar-coating those results, they’re very challenging for us.’

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