Just because one new phase of a war gets delayed does not make the situation static. Late yesterday, Donald Trump gave Iran an extra ten days to decide whether to negotiate seriously to open the Strait of Hormuz, and perhaps end the war on US and Israeli terms. It sent mixed signals, but that may have been the point.
Trump announced the new extension on Truth Social (which I included in last night’s Final Word), claiming that talks with the Iranian regime remnants were “going very well.” The delay only applies to Trump’s warning to start targeting energy plants, not to ongoing operations by the US or Israel:
As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Earlier in the day, Trump revealed that the “gift” received from Iran turned out to be safe passage for ten tankers full of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. That has apparently convinced the US that negotiations involve people with real power in the regime and not just gaslighters and self-promoters looking for a soft landing at the end of the collapse. That doesn’t mean that the regime has any desire to discuss the terms Trump demands in good faith, however, and thus far all of their public pronouncements have rejected even the dialogue taking place.
Today, in fact, Iranian regime officials dispute that they asked for any extension on the ultimatum. However, they did finally express an interest in talks, but on their own terms:
Iran hasn’t requested a 10-day pause on strikes on its energy plants and is yet to deliver a final response to a 15-point plan to end the war, peace talk mediators said.
President Trump said earlier Thursday he was pausing strikes on Iran’s energy sector for 10 more days, to April 6, so peace negotiations can take place. Trump’s previous deadline was Friday. He said the extension was at Iran’s request.
Iranian officials have told the mediators that they are interested in negotiations but the country’s leadership is yet to weigh in and give a final decision, the mediators said. …
Iranian officials already have demanded that the U.S. scale its excessive demands outlined in the 15-point plan before it agrees to meet to discuss a potential cease-fire, the mediators said
They also ruled out discussing Iran’s missile program as a starting point to the talks and doesn’t want to commit to ending enrichment of uranium forever, they added.
The Iranians have lied constantly about these talks, and the Protection Racket Media has fallen for their propaganda more than once. The last part may be closer to the actual truth, however. The Iranians will talk as long as negotiations take place on the regime’s terms, not Trump’s. They want to use their economic leverage to force the US and Israel to back down and to leave them with sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz.
To make that point, Iran forced three ships to retreat over the last 24 hours after the “gift” to Trump. However, the Iranians may have chosen poorly when it comes to their threats this time:
The CBS News Confirmed team found online maritime tracking data to corroborate the Iranian claims about interdicting ships. Data show two large cargo ships owned by Chinese company COSCO Shipping Lines Ltd turned around as they entered the Strait of Hormuz early on Friday and were back in the Persian Gulf. A third ship, also Chinese owned, turned around the previous day.
China is the only friend and major trading partner Iran has. The COSCO ships were apparently not tankers, so it wouldn’t have impacted China’s energy imports, but it certainly would have impacted Beijing’s commercial interests. Furthermore, Iran has begun demanding ransoms for other shipping in a kind of gangster protection racket, which is making their already-angry neighbors even more determined to break Iran’s grip on the Strait:
Iran is charging some commercial ships to sail safely through the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian lawmaker said some vessels have been charged $2 million to transit the key shipping lane, to cover the country’s cost of war.
Passage has long been free and required no special permission, as formally guaranteed by the United Nations’ 1982 Convention of the Law of the Sea, which means Iran is breaching international maritime law. …
The head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who has become one of the most vocal critics of Iran’s actions, bluntly calls it economic terrorism.
He met Vice President JD Vance in Washington on Thursday and spent hours blasting Iran.
“When Iran holds Hormuz hostage, every nation pays the ransom. At the gas pump, at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, every household. No country can be allowed to destabilize the global economy in this way. Not now, not ever,” Al Jaber said the previous day during a speech in Washington.
In other words, Iran is making a very good case for escalation. That brings us back to the ten-day pause on the Hormuz escalation. The Pentagon may have need of the extra time, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports this morning:
The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending at least 10,000 additional combat troops to the Middle East in the coming days, according to a senior U.S. defense official.
Why it matters: If the Trump administration decides to send extra troops, it will significantly increase the number of combat soldiers the U.S. has in the region. It is another signal that a U.S. ground operation in Iran is being seriously prepared.
- The massive surge in ground troops is being considered as President Trump says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran on a deal to end the war. Iranian officials haven’t agreed yet to hold a high-level meeting with the U.S. and they are suspicious that the U.S. diplomatic push is another trick.
Ravid reports that this is part of the “final blow” preparations by War Secretary Pete Hegseth, as reported yesterday. Those plans included the possible seizure of several key islands in the Gulf – Kharg Island, which would also put Iran’s oil export capacity under American control, but also Larak and Abu Masa in the Strait itself. The assets in theater or shortly arriving seemed a little thin for targeting more than one of those islands; the US will have two Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne in theater shortly, along with a massive armada in support, but that may only allow for one strategic choice.
Having an additional 10,000 troops on hand expands the options. That’s a grossly inadequate number for any incursion into mainland Iran, but likely more than enough to neutralize and seize these islands, especially given US/Israeli air supremacy. Ten days should be sufficient to get these forces in the theater and staged for action, and it’s plenty of time for air campaigns to demolish any remaining Iranian forces on all of these islands.
Will Trump order CENTCOM to take these islands? He might, but more importantly, the Iranians know he might. Trump is ratcheting up the stakes, and Iran is playing into his hands by making an ever-clearer case that the regime’s grip on the Strait must be permanently broken. And while all of that is playing out, the war continues to proceed, with US and Israeli forces continuing to destroy the regime’s industrial infrastructure and elimiinating leadership as well as the rank and file of their populace-suppressing forces.
There is nothing static about this delay in the least. Trump may not want a forever war, but he also wants to win the wars he does fight – especially this one.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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