Let this serve as a lesson to all: Don’t post on social media while intoxicated. The inevitable climbdown is, well … embarrassing.
Yesterday, as David covered, former Russian president and now Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev tweeted out an astonishing admission that Russia knew full well that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons. Not only did Russia know of Iran’s true intentions, Medvedev suggested that Russia would assist them further toward their development. And failing that, Medvedev hinted that the Russians might at least tacitly approve the transfer of nuclear weapons to the Iranians:
2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.
3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) June 22, 2025
That caught the attention of Donald Trump, who was in the middle of claiming success in ending what Iran keeps claiming to be a peaceful pursuit of nuclear power for civilian purposes. Having this confirmation of Iran’s true intent for their uranium enrichment — which was obvious once enrichment passed 5% — Trump pivoted toward the threat to proliferate nukes on the black market. He warned Russia of consequences for violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty on Truth Social this morning:
Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the “N word” (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The “N word” should not be treated so casually. I guess that’s why Putin’s “THE BOSS.”
Of course, Putin was also “the boss” when Medvedev was president. Back when Putin worried even slightly about the niceties of the Russian constitution, he engineered a swap of positions with Medvedev to bypass term limits in the Russian presidency. Once Putin got those removed, Medvedev’s ambitions in the top office suddenly came to an end. No one took Medvedev seriously as the “leader” of the Russian federation then and they don’t take him seriously now as anything other than a Putin toady.
In fact, as Business Insider pointed out today, most analysts began scoffing at Medvedev’s claims as soon as he posted them. Not only would such an act be too provocative — especially in this environment — this isn’t as simple as boxing up a warhead and sending it UPS to Tehran. And even if it were that simple, the detonation would immediately identify the source of the weapon as well as the entity that detonated it:
North Korea, China, and Russia are the only nuclear-armed states considered adversaries or rivals to the US. And Lowther said all three know that supplying Iran with nuclear weapons, even just as a deterrent, would risk intense escalation from the US and Israel.
“When you give somebody a nuclear weapon, and they can use it, you can’t guarantee how they’re going to use it,” Lowther said. He added that with Tel Aviv and Washington so focused on preventing Iran from fielding nuclear weapons, Tehran would probably have only two choices if it does receive a warhead: Use the bomb or lose it.
And if Iran detonates a gifted nuke, Lowther added, American forensics would easily be able to trace the fissile material and bomb design to identify where the weapon originated.
“Then that country would be on the US’s hit list,” Lowther said.
That’s not the only risk. In the current moment, the question of who would retain control of that bomb would be particularly acute. Right now, the current regime looks mighty unsteady, and with Ali Khamenei hiding in his bunker, it could collapse soon — and no one knows in which direction it would fall. Could Russia install an ally in the chaos? Maaayyyybeee, but I wouldn’t bet that way. The likeliest outcome of a collapse would be similar to what Russia just experienced in Syria, where the new regime resents the hell out of the Russians for their role in sustaining Bashar al-Assad and kicked Russia out of the country. If Russia had given Assad a nuclear weapon in those final days, it might be on its way to Moscow right now.
Not to mention that such an act would likely get a military response from Israel. And they’re looking very, very dangerous to despotic regimes at the moment.
With all that in mind, it’s no wonder that a momentarily sober Medvedev back-tracked this afternoon:
UPDATE
Dmitry Medvedev responds to President Trump:
“Regarding President Trump’s concerns: I condemn the US strike on Iran – it failed to achieve its objectives. However, Russia has no intention of supplying nuclear weapons to Iran because, unlike Israel, we are parties to… https://t.co/YMbJSydMIU
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) June 23, 2025
… because, unlike Israel, we are parties to the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty. I know quite well what this would entail, having overseen our nuclear forces as president. But other countries might – and that’s what was said. And we definitely shouldn’t be arguing over who has more nukes.
No one was arguing about it before your drunk-blogging, Dmitry. Sober up.
