Hours after the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, California Gov. Gavin Newsom posted a somber denunciation of the violence as “disgusting, vile, and reprehensible.” It was a step back from the governor’s relentless attacks on the Trump administration, one part in a multipronged rebellion that has brought Mr. Newsom a wave of national attention.
From his California perch, the governor has spearheaded challenges to President Donald Trump’s agenda, which has had outsize impact on the Golden State – most notably on immigration, domestic use of the U.S. military, and congressional redistricting. At the same time, he has amped up his offense on social media, taunting Mr. Trump and his MAGA loyalists. The tone resonates beyond California: A recent poll from Emerson College shows Mr. Newsom leading among candidates for the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination.
In February, the governor hosted Mr. Kirk for his inaugural podcast – the first in a line of MAGA figures to join Mr. Newsom for conversations he hoped would bridge political divides. Now, says conservative strategist Rob Stutzman, the governor has a new strategy.
Why We Wrote This
Gavin Newsom’s direct challenges to President Donald Trump on immigration enforcement and redistricting, coupled with a shift to a sharper tone on social media, position him as a test case for Democratic presidential candidates seeking the mix of message and policy that could win their party’s nomination.
“Circumstances changed. An opportunity came to him, and demand in his party grew to resist” Mr. Trump and his government overhaul, says Mr. Stutzman. “He’s a shapeshifter.”
Experts say Mr. Newsom is recognizing how to capture the attention economy, and his rise in popularity reveals a Democratic hunger for someone who can effectively stand up to President Trump.
Mr. Newsom is among a group of governors seeking to fill a gap in party leadership. His break from the field is emerging as a test case for other presidential hopefuls searching for the combination of policy and messaging that could give Democrats a chance to win the White House in 2028.
The governor’s style and its popularity mark a shift in attitude among voters, says Democratic strategist Kevin Liao.
“Folks are distinguishing between the politics of the past, when you could operate in a more passive manner and things will go okay,” says Mr. Liao.
As the president turns his focus to other cities and states – sending National Guard troops into Washington, D.C., and announcing a similar plan for Memphis – Mr. Newsom has established a model for how to respond “on behalf of your constituents, but also how to make the most of it for your political aspirations,” adds Mr. Liao.
A challenge to troops in LA
A key for Governor Newsom, says Mr. Stutzman, “is that he has not had to manufacture a conflict with Trump. It’s not contrived.”
California, with more foreign-born residents than any other state, has been a center of the Trump administration’s immigration policy overhaul. In June, Mr. Trump ordered the state’s own National Guard to occupy parts of Los Angeles.
That power play stoked the governor’s strengths. “Gavin Newsom can be a pretty effective fighter on certain issues, and I think that’s when you saw it start again within this context,” says Lori Cox Han, the Doy B. Henley Chair of American Presidential Studies at Chapman University.
Shortly after the National Guard arrived, California sued the administration for federalizing troops to execute civil law enforcement in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. Earlier this month, a federal judge agreed with the state, but the Trump administration is appealing. (The troops have been allowed to stay, though most were sent home in July and August.)
That court decision has been closely watched by others.
In August, after Mr. Trump sent troops to Washington, the District of Columbia’s attorney general sued the administration using the same argument California had made successfully. Still, the president has said he might send the National Guard into other Democratic-led cities such as Chicago and Baltimore. Governors in those states have pushed back, in part saying such a move would be unconstitutional.
These confrontations allow new voices to come forward with novel solutions, says Shana Kushner Gadarian, a political science professor at Syracuse University. And governors are in position to gain national followings in a way that members of Congress might not.
“They have their own constituencies that they are there to represent, but also they have the ability to capture media attention and be very clear and forceful, because they don’t have to deal with Trump in the Washington policymaking arena,” says Dr. Gadarian.
Mr. Newsom, a term-limited governor, is taking advantage of his best options to gain political traction before he leaves office in a year and a half, says Mr. Stutzman. “I think he’s capitalized on [the circumstances] so far superbly in order to get himself into the supreme leader position at this point.”
A response to Texas redistricting
In response to Republican states’ redistricting efforts to strengthen the party’s hold in Congress, Mr. Newsom pushed through a special election to allow his state, a Democratic powerhouse, to redraw its own districts. If successful, California could offset conservative gains in Texas.
Proposition 50, which would temporarily change California’s congressional map, faces opposition for overriding the state’s independent redistricting process. But it could have a significant impact on national politics, and Mr. Newsom is appealing to donors nationwide with a high-profile fundraising campaign.
He is building his national campaign infrastructure, says Mr. Stutzman. That support accrues to the governor even if Proposition 50 loses, he adds.
If the redistricting is successful, and California and sends more Democrats to Congress, Governor Newsom can say he bolstered the party’s power, says Dr. Han. “That is his argument for, ‘I’ve done something successful to stop Trump, stop these MAGA Republicans.’”
On social media, a new narrative
Earlier this summer, Mr. Newsom and his team supercharged his momentum with a shift to sharper social-media messaging, mimicking Mr. Trump’s style of combative posting. The governor’s Instagram following grew 30% in the past month, to more than 3 million followers. And his office told Politico the governor’s campaign accounts gained nearly 3 million followers across X, TikTok, Substack, and Instagram.
Mr. Newsom is mirroring President Trump’s irreverent tone and use of self-aggrandizing AI images, writing in all caps and posting memes that mock the president and MAGA. Those all-caps posts on X saw sharp spikes in sharing, according to a Washington Post analysis.
“Newsom got the memo,” says Steven Fish, a political science professor at the University of California at Berkeley, whose book “Comeback” explores political dominance. “It’s about having a narrative and dominating the conversation. It’s not about who’s got the better facts, the more appealing policies.”
The governor, says Dr. Fish, is changing how people view the president’s style, which at first seemed “absurd … but then people got used to it. What Newsom is doing is re-abnormalizing those things.”
For Democrats, who can win in ’28?
Establishing a strong voice that cuts through the noise of politically polarized rhetoric is crucial to any candidate’s success, experts say, even more so than substance like policy records. That’s particularly true for Democrats, who are trying to dig out of the lowest favorability ratings for either party in three decades.
That sort of combativeness, done right, recognizes high stakes and gives a candidate authenticity, says Dr. Kushner.
Mr. Newsom’s political goals come with baggage, as he was mayor of far-left San Francisco and now heads a liberal state. Even Democratic voters have been skeptical: In the Emerson poll where he now leads, Mr. Newsom trailed both Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris three months ago.
His new branding has caused more people to rethink his electability, says Mr. Liao, the Democratic consultant. But “these spots at the top can be short-lived,” he says.
Maintaining this offense takes stamina, and with three years to go until the next presidential election, there’s plenty of time for someone else to step into the spotlight.
“Newsom is seeing a moment,’’ explains Mr. Liao. “But ultimately, what that primary electorate is going to look at is who can win.’’
