Fears are mounting over the Nato summit with both the US and Spain opting out of a new spending target – and speculation Donald Trump might not turn up.
The military alliance is due to gather in The Hague tomorrow evening amid chaos in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The US has been demanding member states ramp up defence expenditure to 3.5 per cent of GDP, with an extra 1.5 per cent on measures such as cyber security.
However, a draft communique appears to have pushed back the timetable for hitting the level from 2032 to 2035.
The language on the pledge has also reportedly been watered down from ‘we commit’ to ‘allies commit’, with Spain flatly dismissing the idea of meeting the goal.
Mr Trump himself has said America is not bound by it. ‘We’ve been supporting NATO so long… So I don’t think we should, but I think that the NATO countries should, absolutely,’ he said on Friday.
The slippage raises doubts about whether other states will feel they have to stand by the spending target – although Germany has announced it will reach 3.5 per cent by 2029. That involves Berlin finding upwards of $60billion a year more for the military.
Donald Trump has been demanding member states ramp up defence expenditure to 3.5 per cent of GDP, with an extra 1.5 per cent on measures such as cyber security
Britain allocated 2.33 per cent of GDP to defence last year, and Keir Starmer (pictured with Rachel Reeves) has committed to reaching 2.5 per cent by April 2027
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is trying to strike a funding deal for the military alliance
The increase in Italy would be equivalent to around $46billion, Canada $45billion, France £44billion and the UK roughly $40billion.
Spain allocated just 1.24 per cent of GDP on defence in 2024. That could have left it facing funding a $36billion boost despite having a relatively small economy.
But left-wing PM Pedro Sanchez said yesterday that it was only looking to hit 2.1 per cent of GDP.
‘We fully respect the legitimate desire of other countries to increase their defence investment, but we are not going to do so,’ he said in a TV address.
The cash cost of the goal for each country have been estimated by comparing the Nato figures for spending levels in 2024 to World Bank figures for the size of GDP.
The current target is 2 per cent, which has not been met by all states. Only Poland currently tops the 3.5 per cent level.
The US itself spent 3.38 per cent on defence in 2024, although the sheer size of its economy meant that dwarfed contributions from the rest of the alliance.
Britain allocated 2.33 per cent of GDP to defence last year, and Keir Starmer has committed to reaching 2.5 per cent by April 2027.
There is an ‘ambition’ of increasing that to 3 per cent at some stage in the next parliament – likely to run to 2034.
Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez said yesterday that it was only looking to hit 2.1 per cent of GDP
Former UK national security adviser Lord Ricketts said any escalation in the standoff with Iran could change the president’s plans
Nato sources told MailOnline there had been concerns in the lead-up to the gathering that Mr Trump might not attend.
The president exited the G7 summit in Canada early last week, snubbing a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky – who is in London for talks with Sir Keir today.
Former UK national security adviser Lord Ricketts said any escalation in the standoff with Iran could change the president’s plans.
The peer posted on X last night: ‘Must be highly likely that Trump pulls out of the much-anticipated NATO Summit starting on Tuesday. And a racing certainty he won’t go if Iran retaliates.’
