Mexico is reportedly on the cusp of signing a new security agreement with the United States. This comes in the wake of a near stop in illegal border crossings and a temporary reprieve on higher trade tariffs. According to President Claudia Sheinbaum, the pact would address intelligence sharing, the outflow of fentanyl from Mexico, and the inflow of smuggled guns from the U.S.
The tariff pause and security deal highlight Mexico’s measurable, if incremental, progress in tackling organized crime and violence. These efforts don’t just placate the country’s largest trading partner; they respond to citizen demands. Mexicans want the economic progress fostered by safety and rule of law.
Last month, Mexico announced a new strategy to combat extortion, which cost the economy an estimated $1.3 billion a year in 2023. The plan includes a reporting hotline and better investigations of suspicious cash flows.
In June, Ms. Sheinbaum pointed to a 25.8% drop in “intentional homicides” since she took office, using September 2024 as a baseline. According to one think tank, 75% of killings are committed in just 7% of Mexico’s municipalities. The strategy of identifying violence hot spots for targeted security helps reduce such crime, stated security analyst David Mora on France 24 TV, . He cited Guanajuato state, where homicides fell by half, as a “perfect example.” (However, homicide statistics exclude Mexico’s large numbers of missing or “disappeared,” estimated at more than 121,000.)
Security Minister Omar García Harfuch, who oversaw a dramatic plunge in the capital city’s homicide rate when Ms. Sheinbaum was mayor (2018-2023), is seeking to build a more effective, civilian-controlled federal security force. Earlier this year, he launched a new unit focused on strengthening intelligence networks and state-level presence. In February, his team extradited 29 alleged drug cartel criminals to the U.S. (This week, the U.S. said it would not seek the death penalty against them – a concession that could bolster Ms. Sheinbaum’s standing at home, where capital punishment was abolished in 2005.)
According to a 2025 report by the Institute for Economics & Peace 2025 report, Mexico’s peace index recorded a “fifth straight year of modest improvement.” Scores improved in 18 states and deteriorated in 14. Common factors among states that showed improvement were increased presence and visibility of security, and a more responsive justice system. Economic opportunities also correlated with less violence.
President Sheinbaum’s ability to balance tariff negotiations with visible anti-crime efforts may just provide Mexico with a recipe for attaining stability and progress for its citizens.
