Labour would face disaster if an election was held today – but Reform would need an alliance with the Tories to put Nigel Farage in power.
As Keir Starmer prepares to mark a year since his landslide, a huge YouGov poll has underlined his extraordinary fall from grace.
From 403 MPs currently it found Labour would be reduced to just 178 if the country went to the polls again today.
A large section of the Cabinet would lose their seats – including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Pat McFadden, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and John Healey.
Reform would see a stunning rise from five MPs to 271, while the Tories would endure an even worse result to drop to just 46. That would make them the fourth-biggest party, well behind the Lib Dems on 81.
However, Mr Farage would still be well short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. The most plausible option could be teaming up with the Conservatives, which would mean a combined 317 MPs.
That is the same number Theresa May secured in 317, when she clung on in No10 with help from the DUP.
The grim findings emerged with Sir Keir poised to make humiliating concessions on benefits reforms today after failing to quell a massive Labour revolt
The research – conducted between May 29 and June 18 – found Reform was supported by 26 per cent of Brits. Labour was three points behind on 23 per cent, the Tories on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent
Mr Farage would still be well short of the 326 needed for an outright majority
The grim findings emerged with Sir Keir poised to make humiliating concessions on benefits reforms today after failing to quell a massive Labour revolt.
Ministers have been hinting at a climbdown as they face a disastrous defeat in a crunch Commons vote on the flagship legislation.
Despite frantic direct pleas from the PM and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, more MPs have added their names to a fatal amendment overnight. Around 130 have now publicly declared they will oppose the Second Reading of the Bill, easily enough to overturn even Labour’s massive majority.
The YouGov study was conducted using the so-called MRP method – which profiles the characteristics of voters in constituencies to convert polling into seat-by-seat results.
The research – conducted between May 29 and June 18 – found Reform was supported by 26 per cent of Brits.
Labour was three points behind on 23 per cent, the Tories on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems on 15 per cent.
In terms of seats, the Lib Dems could increase their tally to 81, while the SNP would restore their dominance in Scotland with 34.
The Greens were seen as getting seven MPs.
Angela Rayner would be among the Cabinet ministers to lose their seats
The YouGov findings represent a huge change in the political map from the results of the general election a year ago
YouGov said: ‘As well as winning just 224 seats between them in the central projection, the two traditional powerhouse parties of British politics, Labour and the Conservatives, would win a combined vote share of just 41 per cent, down from 59 per cent last year.
‘That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.’
