Iran‘s government is not at risk of collapse and its leadership remains broadly intact after two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombing, classified intelligence suggests.
A ‘multitude’ of classified reports provide ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger’ of falling and ‘retains control of the Iranian public,’ sources told Reuters, with the latest completed within days.
Donald Trump claimed last night that the war had been ‘won’ and would be over ‘soon.’
But hours later, six tankers were struck by Iranian suicide boats in the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel.
The intelligence reporting reveals that Iran’s clerical power structure remains intact after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing on February 28, the first day of US-Israeli strikes.
Khamenei’s son Mojtaba issued his first statement on Thursday after taking over as supreme leader, warning Trump that US ‘bases will be attacked’ and vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
‘Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs,’ Mojtaba said in a televised address.
He said the narrow passage through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows would remain closed as a ‘tool to pressure the enemy.’
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters alongside White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt as he departs for Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on March 11
Oil tankers burn in the Persian Gulf after being struck by Iranian suicide boats just hours after Trump claimed the US had ‘won’ the war
A senior Israeli official acknowledged that there is no certainty the war will lead to the government’s collapse.
Three intelligence sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity stressed that the situation on the ground was fast moving and could change at any time.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the Daily Mail: ‘President Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their objectives with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon.
‘The United States Military is meeting or surpassing all of its goals, and the regime is getting absolutely crushed, as evidenced by the 90 percent decline in ballistic missile attacks.’
The US and Israel say they have decimated Iran’s senior leadership.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government in the immediate aftermath of the first strikes.
But the Trump administration has since retreated from that message, arguing instead it seeks to dismantle Iran’s military infrastructure and obliterate its nuclear capacity.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, March 2
Iranians attend the funerals of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders, army commanders and others killed in the early days of the United States and Israeli strikes on Iran, with a damaged building visible in the background, at Enghelab Square in Tehran on March 11
A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on March 3
Trump sent oil prices soaring last week when he demanded Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender.’
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that this meant ‘Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not.’
But the intelligence suggests Iran’s leadership remains steadfast.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Mojtaba Khamenei the new supreme leader.
Trump has expressed ‘disappointment’ at the choice of Khamenei’s son, saying ‘I don’t believe he can live in peace.’
Khamanei said in televised remarks that Tehran believes in ‘friendship’ with its Arab neighbors, saying its forces would only strike US bases in the region.
‘We only targeted these military bases and we will continue,’ he said Thursday.
The 56-year-old referred to the strike on a girls’ school that killed 175 people, most of them children, on the first day of the war. A preliminary report by the Pentagon says the US was responsible for the carnage.
USAF military ground personnel load Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) into a US Air Force (USAF) B-1 Lancer bomber on the tarmac at RAF Fairford in south-west England on March 11
This handout photo taken on March 11, 2026 and released by the Royal Thai Navy shows smoke rising from the Thai bulk carrier ‘Mayuree Naree’ near the Strait of Hormuz after an attack. A Thai bulk carrier travelling in the crucial Strait of Hormuz was attacked March 11
Personnel work on a US Air Force B-1 Lancer bomber parked on the tarmac at RAF Fairford in south-west England on March 12
USAF military ground personnel load Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM) into a US Air Force (USAF) B-1 Lancer bomber on the tarmac at RAF Fairford in south-west England on March 11
‘We will be especially sensitive regarding the blood of our children,’ the ayatollah said as he promised revenge.
He also eulogized his father, who had a status akin to the Pope in the Shiite Muslim world.
‘I had the honor of seeing his body after his martyrdom. What I saw was a mountain of strength,’ he said.
Khamenei is said to be in intensive care at Sina University Hospital in Tehran’s historic quarter, surrounded by security officials, with a section of the building sealed off, a source in the city said.
It is unclear whether he was injured in the same air strikes which killed his 86-year-old father.
A source, who declined to be named fearing for his life, said the new supreme leader is being treated by Mohammad Reza Zafargjani, Iran’s health minister and one of the country’s top trauma surgeons.
