Labour has been ridiculed for blaming migrant crossings on the weather as it published data indicating the Rwanda asylum scheme had a clear deterrent effect on arrivals.
The Home Office published figures on the number of so-called ‘red days’ which have seen calm weather conditions in the Channel.
To a chorus of derision, it claimed good weather ‘tended to coincide with an increase in the number of overall arrivals’.
But the figures also showed migrant arrivals were far lower when Conservative ministers were poised to finally launch Rwanda removals flights last year.
In the weeks after legislation designed to combat legal challenges against the scheme was passed by the Tories, Channel arrivals did not reflect the highest-ever number of ‘red days’.
In May last year, the month after the Tories’ Safety of Rwanda Act entered law, there were a record 21 ‘red days’ but only 2,765 arrivals – about the same as the previous two months when weather was poor.
In June last year – immediately before the general election – there were 20 ‘red days’ but only 3,007 arrivals.
There was a similar effect on Channel arrivals in the month after the Rwanda scheme was first unveiled in April 2022, with low arrivals despite calm weather.
Migrants depart from the beach at Gravelines, northern France, on Saturday, on a day which witnessed the highest number of Channel arrivals in Dover for more than two and a half years
Just under 1,200 migrants reached Dover on Saturday – the fifth highest number on record – after departing from beaches at Gravelines, France, pictured
The record number of migrants, at 1,195, on Saturday was the earliest point in any calendar year to have witnessed more than 1,000 arrivals in a day
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer scrapped the Rwanda scheme as one of his first acts after winning power in last July’s election.
Small children, including infants, were among those travelling to Britain aboard overcrowded, sub-standard dinghies on Saturday
It comes after Saturday witnessed 1,195 small boat arrivals – the fifth highest daily tally on record. It was also the first day to break the 1,000 barrier for more than two and a half years.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said: ‘This analysis proves the Rwanda removals plan was having a deterrent effect in the weeks before it even had a chance to start.
‘The number of arrivals was low even on red days in the weeks after the Safety of Rwanda Act was passed.
‘The deterrent effect of the prospect of removal to Rwanda was already kicking in.
‘This proves it was a catastrophic mistake by Labour to cancel the Rwanda scheme.
‘Common sense tells us that illegal migrants would not want to come to the UK if they faced the prospect of being removed to Rwanda.’
He added: ‘The Labour Government seems to think that praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy.
‘This is a weak Government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel.
‘That’s why 2025 is the worst year in history for illegal crossings – not the weather.
‘Our borders have been thrown open by our weak Prime Minister and his weak Home Secretary.’
Experts at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory also contradicted the Government’s claim that the weather was affecting Channel numners.
Senior researcher Dr Peter Walsh said: ‘There’s no evidence to suggest that the weather is a major factor explaining long-term increases in small boat arrivals, such as the one we’ve seen over the past eight months.
‘The data published today suggest that over long periods of a year, the number of crossings seems to be broadly unrelated to the number of red days that make the Channel safer to cross.
‘It thus seems unlikely that the weather is much more than a short-term constraint on small boat crossings.
‘Other factors, such as the number of people wanting to reach the UK and the number and professionalisation of smuggling gangs are likely to be more important.’
A Home Office spokesman said in the first four months of this year there were 60 ‘red days’, or ‘more than double the number compared to the same period in 2024’ when there were 27.
During the same period small boat arrivals were 11,074, or 46 per cent higher than the same period in 2024.
The spokesman said: ‘This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long.
Migrants who came to Britain were due to be housed in Rwanda – including at Hope House, in Kigali, pictured – and would have claimed asylum there rather than here
‘That’s why we are giving counter-terror style powers to law enforcement, launching an unprecedented international crackdown on immigration crime, have prevented 9,000 crossings from the French coastline this year alone and have returned almost 30,000 people since the election.
Then home secretary Priti Patel and Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Vincent Biruta, signed the asylum deal at Kigali Convention Center, Rwanda, in April 2022
‘At the same time we are cracking down on the false promise of jobs used to sell spaces on these boats – with illegal working visits and arrests up by more than 40 per cent under this government.’
