SIR Keir Starmer suffered another major blow today as Plaid Cymru swept to victory in an historic Welsh by-election.
Lindsay Whittle won the crucial Caerphilly Senedd seat off Labour in a huge landmark for the left-leaning nationalist party – and a massive loss for Starmer.
Plaid’s Rhun ap Iorwerth said his party is focussed on “positive change for Wales” as he spoke at the count.
It comes after weeks of fierce campaigning by parties hoping to win the Welsh Parliament constituency from Labour.
Labour has led the Welsh Parliament since the devolved administration was first established in 1999 and Caerphilly has long been one of its strongholds.
However, recent polling has forecast Plaid Cymru and Reform UK to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year, and the turnout has been high.
This may be the most interesting by-election in 26 years of Welsh devolution, with eight politicians vying for the win.
The Caerphilly by-election saw 50.43 per cent of voters take part – and there’s never been more than a 50 per cent turn out for a Senedd election.
Today’s shock result is being viewed as bellwether for the Welsh parliament elections in May next year – and even as a reflection of the wider national mood.
Final vote count
- Steve Aicheler – Welsh Liberal Democrats – 497
- Anthony Cook – Gwlad – 117
- Gareth Hughes – Green Party – 516
- Gareth Potter – Welsh Conservatives – 690
- Llyr Powell – Reform UK – 12,113
- Roger Quilliam – UKIP – 79
- Richard Tunnicliffe – Welsh Labour – 3,713
- Lindsay Whittle – Plaid Cymru – 15,961
Labour’s loss follows Reform’s success at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in July last year alongside a string of local council gains.
Yet it only compounds the woes engulfing the PM who has been beset by a string of crises in recent months.
He has been forced onto the back foot on migration, the Chinese spy scandal, the Peter Mandelson saga and the grooming inquiry chaos.
At the overnight count, Reform candidate Llŷr Powell revealed that his office and property have been “attacked” during his campaign.
It all comes ahead of a high-stakes Budget in which his Chancellor Rachel Reeves looks set to hike taxes once again.
Speculation about his leadership have been swirling with dissatisfaction in much of the Labour ranks.
Wales has been governed by Labour since devolution in the 1990s, but both Reform and Plaid have their sights firmly set on the May Senedd elections.
The most recent polling by YouGov, from September, shows the Cardiff parliament is set for a turquoise wave.
While Plaid Cymru lead the poll on 30 per cent, Reform are breathing down their neck on 29.
Mr Farage is odds on to become the next PM after surging in the polls on a tidal wave of public anger, largely over mass migration.
The Reform leader polls especially well in traditional working class communities that voted Brexit in 2016.
Mr Farage has consistently been leading the opinion polls with a rough 10-point lead over Sir Keir Starmer.
A recent MRP poll showed that – without tactical voting – Reform would take 445 MPs – well above the 326 needed for a majority, and exceeding Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
The YouGov poll showed Labour would be reduced to 73, the Lib Dems would be third on 42, the SNP on 41, Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing Your Party on 13, the Tories on seven, and the Greens on six.
Labour admitted the by-election was a “tough night” and Labour MP Alex-Barros-Curtis said the party needs to “reflect on the lessons” it needs to learn.
For the first time, the seat wasn’t taken for granted as a Labour win.
Many voters turned out for the first time ever, because of the sense of uncertainty over the result.
It doesn’t bode well for Labour ahead of the Welsh parliament elections.
The by-election was called following the sudden death of Labour’s Hefin David, 48, in August.
First Minister Eluned Morgan confirmed his passing.
In a statement at the time, Ms Morgan said: “We are extremely saddened by the sudden death of Hefin.
“Our thoughts are with his family at this terrible time.
“Hefin was a much-loved member of the Labour family. He served Caerphilly as a councillor and a Member of the Senedd with pride and passion.
“He was an outstanding politician, warm and enthusiastic and a great communicator – especially on behalf of his constituents.
“He will be greatly missed.”
Mr David, who was born in the Caerphilly constituency, was a lively Labour backbencher and was often seen contributing to Senedd debates.
Before his death, Labour held half of the Senedd’s 60 seats.
Labour strategy to attack Reform is high-risk
By Jack Elsom, Political Editor
CAN anything stop Nigel Farage’s march towards 10 Downing Street?
The man himself is now daring to dream, and this week confidently said: “Are you looking at the next Prime Minister? I believe you are.”
But he is all too well aware that many pitfalls still pave his path to power.
Sir Keir Starmer is pinning his hopes on swathes of tactical voting from people who loathe the idea of a Reform government.
He used his conference speech last month to position the next election as a two-horse race between himself and Farage, who he in turn accused of adopting “racist” policies.
The Labour script will be: “Don’t want that monstrous Farage to become PM? Then hold your nose and vote for us.”
It rests on the premise that support for Farage has a ceiling, and there are enough voters out there who will do whatever it takes to keep him out.
It is a high-risk gambit.
With no love lost for Starmer right now, making Farage the clear anti-government choice could spectacularly backfire on Labour.
