At around four in the afternoon Middle East time on Tuesday, Israeli air force jets reached their targets after a flight of over 1,000 miles, unleashing a missile attack on a dusty pink building in the capital of Qatar, Doha.
The pilots had been told that Hamas’ senior leaders were meeting there to consider an American proposal for an end to the war in Gaza. Israeli officials were quick to take responsibility for the attack in celebratory tones.
But on Wednesday it emerged that the missiles had missed their targets, and that the Hamas leaders had survived. That adds bite to the question many Israelis were already asking themselves: What was the strategy behind this high-risk strike in the territory of an important U.S. ally whose government has been hosting and brokering peace talks between Israel and Hamas?
Why We Wrote This
Israel yesterday tried, but failed, to kill its top negotiating partner in Gaza peace talks. The attack involved Israeli jets bombing the capital of Qatar, a key American ally, without giving Washington due warning. What were they thinking?
The logic appeared to be that wiping out Hamas’ leadership abroad would oblige Hamas’ military leaders on the ground in Gaza to agree to a deal on Israel’s terms. That would give Israel its long-sought and elusive “total victory” over the fundamentalist Islamic group that started the longest war in Israeli history with its massacre of over 1,000 Israeli civilians and seizure of hostages on Oct. 7, 2023.
That victory would secure the immediate release of the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are believed still to be alive, and the disarmament of Hamas.
“This is the same logic that has guided the Israeli government since the beginning of the war – that more pressure on Hamas will help release hostages and perhaps end the war,” says Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economics & Security, a nonprofit conflict-resolution group.
“Israel’s government wants Hamas to raise a white flag and say, ‘We lost, you won, here are the hostages and we have no demands, we will commit hara-kiri together, and you can do in Gaza whatever you want,’” says Ms. Svetlova, a former Israeli lawmaker.
As Israeli elections approach, each party “wants to appear as powerful and uncompromising as possible to their base,” says Ms. Svetlova.
Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters/File
Meant to prolong the war?
The left-wing daily Haaretz saw Tuesday’s operation as a bid to prolong the war in Gaza. “When a state tries and – even more troubling, succeeds – in assassinating interlocutors, even indirectly, it’s clear that it has no interest in negotiations,” its editorial read.
“The operation didn’t eliminate Israel’s enemies, and there’s nothing to celebrate. What it did eliminate were our chances to end the war, finally secure the hostages’ release, halt Israel’s political and reputational collapse, stop the bloodshed of thousands in Gaza and bring an end to the nightmare that has haunted Israel and Gaza for nearly two years,” the editorial continued.
Top Israeli army and Mossad officials opposed the strike, according to media reports, fearing that it would torpedo efforts to save Israel’s hostages.
The war is taking a devastating toll on both Israeli and Palestinian society, and pressure has mounted on both leaderships to end it.
Over 62,000 people in Gaza have been killed according to the Hamas-affiliated Gaza Health Ministry. Israel’s losses are less tangible, but nonetheless grave.
“We will pay a price internationally for this,” Rami Igra, the former head of the missing persons unit in Mossad told Israel Radio. If it is true that Washington was alerted to the attack only just before the missiles were launched, he said, “in the end, Israel may now face even bigger American pressure to end the war.”
Some Israeli analysts with military backgrounds, such as Eyal Pinko, view the attempted assassination as an important message to Qatar. The authorities were, they say, implicated in the deaths of Israelis through their patronage of Hamas.
“They are not peacemakers; this is the duplicity of Qatar,” says Dr. Pinko, senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.
“We cannot be fooled by Hamas anymore after almost two years of back and forth of negotiations,” says Dr. Pinko. “Hamas has been unwilling to agree to a ceasefire agreement. This strike is a way to bring chaos to this organization by cutting off the head of the snake, so I think it’s a smart move.”
Meanwhile, the hostages’ families are terrified for the fate of their loved ones, fearing retribution by their Hamas captors.
“A grave fear now hangs over the price that the hostages may pay,” reads a statement from the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. “The chance of bringing them back now faces greater uncertainty than ever before, with one thing of absolute certainty – their time is running out. The price for the 48 hostages could be unbearable. The living hostages could be murdered at any moment, and the deceased could disappear forever.”
