
President Trump has been ambiguous about whether he is aiming for complete regime change in Iran or not, but Israel is not being coy at all.
They don’t just want to set Iran back; they want the entire regime gone.
צפו בתיעוד: חוסלו חיילים ממשטר הטרור האיראני שפעלו במפקדה של משמרות המהפכה https://t.co/T3s4Way3Cp pic.twitter.com/s9L2fFy6E4
— Israeli Air Force (@IAFsite) March 11, 2026
Airstrikes on military and regime-related infrastructure are certainly having an effect on the ability of the regime to continue functioning—in a sense, there has already been something akin to a regime change, with decapitation strikes that have eliminated all the top leaders, going several layers down.
BREAKING 🔴
Iranian state media confirmed that Akbar Ghaffari, the country’s deputy intelligence minister, has been ELIMINATED. Ghaffari was widely viewed as a central figure in the regime’s internal security and intelligence apparatus. pic.twitter.com/VprepHgDQW
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 12, 2026
For the moment, the mullahs are not in charge, and the civilian control of the military has evaporated to the point where the IRGC is overruling the civilian council before a new Supreme Leader was installed. And the IRGC picked the new Supreme Leader, Khamenei’s son, who appears to be either dead or in a coma.
EXCLUSIVE: A source close to a member of the Assembly of Experts has told @iranwire that some members and their families were threatened by the IRGC Intelligence Unit to select Mojtaba Khamenei as leader. Mojtaba’s main support within the regime comes from this intelligence…
— Maziar Bahari (@maziarbahari) March 11, 2026
He is literally a cardboard leader. They trotted out a picture of Khamenei, not the man, who is reportedly in a hospital with severe wounds.
رهبر مقوایی گندهگوی منطقه. pic.twitter.com/LQbUGy1ZTi
— اسرائیل به فارسی (@IsraelPersian) March 9, 2026
Most IRGC facilities have been bombed into oblivion, but the IRGC is still functioning as a Secret Police force, threatening Iranians with death if they take to the streets to protest or rise up against the regime.
Iranian regime police chief threatens Iranians protesting against the regime.
“From now on if someone acts at the enemies behest we will no longer consider them protesters…we will regard them as the enemy.”
— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) March 11, 2026
The biggest obstacle to the end of the regime is the IRGC secret police, who still control the streets, and who have proven willing to murder countless Iranians to stay in power. They have intimidated the civilians who controlled the government, as if that mattered, and are threatening to massacre the population should they rise up.
And they have proven a willingness to be ruthless.
WATCH 🔴
Iranian state media claim the overnight strikes on Basij checkpoints were meant to stir unrest inside the country.
“This is an attempt to undermine public confidence in Iran’s stable security apparatus. The enemy is trying to open a new internal front,” one outlet… pic.twitter.com/Tfm4nZaNWw
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 12, 2026
Iranian state media claim the overnight strikes on Basij checkpoints were meant to stir unrest inside the country.
“This is an attempt to undermine public confidence in Iran’s stable security apparatus. The enemy is trying to open a new internal front,” one outlet said.
Fars news agency reported that at least 10 security and Basij personnel were killed in attacks at several sites across Tehran.
At this point, the crucial war-winning strategy is to destroy the IRGC’s ability to intimidate a populace desperate to get rid of them.
Des drones de type munitions rôdeuses semblent désormais opérer au-dessus de Téhéran.
Plus de 10 checkpoints ainsi que plusieurs véhicules militaires mobiles du CGRI (IRGC) dans différentes zones de la ville auraient été ciblés et détruits par des frappes de drones. (@etelaf10)… pic.twitter.com/g0sBMZgIW7
— Guy (@McRogueD) March 11, 2026
Loitering munition-type drones now appear to be operating over Tehran.
More than 10 checkpoints, as well as several mobile IRGC (IRGC) military vehicles in different areas of the city, are said to have been targeted and destroyed by drone strikes. (@etelaf10)
This type of weapon can patrol for a long time over an area, wait for targets to appear, and then strike. This is all the easier when enemy air defense systems are degraded or neutralized.
This could facilitate the emergence of a broader national uprising, by weakening the regime’s control at the street level.
Now that air supremacy over Tehran is basically established, Israel has initiated a new phase in their systematic destruction of the regime: going after the IRGC troops patrolling Tehran, killing them systematically and precisely. Rather than dropping 500 to 2000 lb bombs, or even small diameter bombs that could inflict severe civilian casualties, they are apparently using loitering drones to pick off checkpoints and IRGC troops when they are out in the open.
IRGC-affiliated Fars News confirms Israeli drones targeted checkpoints across Tehran on Wednesday evening, saying that several security personnel and Basij members were killed. https://t.co/4dm7jmgGFz
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 11, 2026
Gone are the days of carpet bombings, which is a hideous sort of “spray and pray” that kills vastly more civilians than targets. The Israelis are systematically destroying the IRGC’s ability to control the population, a few soldiers at a time.
It’s difficult to say when morale among the lower ranks of the IRGC will collapse, but if these attacks persist and are successful, there will be a point at which it does.
Israel is inside Iran taking out checkpoints and the Shah is online telling Iranians to get ready for the next phase. Something is happening.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) March 11, 2026
Death from the air that can strike at any time, specifically aimed at you and your buddies, is not something one can endure forever.
Quick war update from Tehran:
The IRGC held a meeting in a command center.
Israeli fighter jets RSVP’d.
Within seconds of identifying regime operatives inside the facility, the jets struck the building and eliminated everyone in it.
Problem solved.
Meanwhile dozens of… pic.twitter.com/CuktUUDIaa
— The Mossad: Satirical and Awesome (@TheMossadIL) March 11, 2026
Quick war update from Tehran:
The IRGC held a meeting in a command center.
Israeli fighter jets RSVP’d.
Within seconds of identifying regime operatives inside the facility, the jets struck the building and eliminated everyone in it.
Problem solved.
Meanwhile dozens of Israeli aircraft conducted additional strike waves across Tehran and western Iran, hitting:
• IRGC Air Force command centers and situation rooms
• A command compound inside the IRGC’s Imam Hussein military university
• Ballistic missile storage and production facilities
• Sites used to target Israeli aircraft operating over Tehran
At the same time, Israel hit Internal Security and Basij bases along with a command center of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence, the same organization responsible for spying on Iranian citizens and helping violently crush protests.
In other words:
The regime’s missile infrastructure, command network, and repression apparatus all took hits in the same round.
The campaign continues.
Tehran is learning that running a terror empire becomes difficult when your command centers keep disappearing.
The Americans and the Israelis are testing the hypothesis that in the modern world, regime change without ground occupation is possible. There is a lot of doubt that this is the case, with good reason.
But it’s not a bad bet. Especially when the population is desperate to see the old guard gone.
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