After more than half a century of enmity, Israel and Syria are reportedly close to reaching a security agreement that will bring peace to their shared borders.
The talks mark a sea change for the two nations that have gone to war twice since 1967. Israel continues to occupy Syrian territory in the Golan Heights, and until its overthrow last December, the Bashar al-Assad regime built its rule on opposition to Israel.
Behind the move from conflict to dialogue is a shift of attitude among Syria’s new rulers, a war-weary Syrian populace, and U.S. pressure on Israel to reach a deal.
Why We Wrote This
Countries that were once the Middle East’s most bitter enemies are now discussing a security deal to keep their common border quiet. Can Israel and Syria find enough common ground to make it work?
Most remarkably, the talks have brought together a former extremist Syrian president and an aggressive Israeli government that continues to bomb targets on Syrian soil.
Yet this path toward peace is fraught with risk. Israeli strikes against Syrian military bases, which continued this week, threaten to destabilize the government with which Israel is trying to reach a deal.
Observers say Damascus is motivated by two goals. Firstly, Islamist-turned-pragmatist President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had ties with al-Qaida, is keen to rehabilitate his image on the world stage.
That would facilitate the government’s second aim: to attract foreign funds.
“This was a group that a year ago was anathema to everyone around the world,” says Gamal Mansour, a lecturer at the University of Toronto and a researcher on Syria.
“They want to hang on to power, and to hang on to power they need an achievement: rebuilding Syria,” he adds. “That cannot be achieved while having problems with anyone in the region, particularly the Israelis.”
For Israel’s part, aside from American pressure, “after fighting almost two years on multiple fronts, it cannot allow itself to further erode its [military] capacity,” says Carmit Valensi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank. “It cannot have the end state be a constant state of war.”
Nor can Israel, after the unprecedented Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack along its southern border, afford to be anything but proactive about potential security threats from its neighbors, Dr. Valensi adds.
Demilitarizing the border
Direct and indirect negotiations, involving the United States and the United Arab Emirates, are said to be focusing on Syria’s border with Israel, where Israeli troops have pushed into a supposedly neutral buffer zone patrolled by United Nations peacekeepers.
Israel also still occupies the Golan Heights – territory it seized in the 1967 war and later annexed.
Though the details are unclear, various reports indicate the agreement would demilitarize southern Syria along Israel’s border. It would also guarantee that Syria will not allow militants to target Israel, and offer Israeli troops limited rights to strike first to avert an imminent military threat.
Damascus believes a security agreement with Israel would stabilize the section of the country’s border that is adjacent to Israel, currently under Israeli military occupation. The area has been the site of deadly clashes between Druze separatists and tribesmen.
The government hopes that a security deal would give Syria enough support in the U.S. Congress to revoke all the Assad-era sanctions that currently limit the entry of foreign capital.
The move marks an ideological transformation for Mr. Sharaa, who is looking to align with the United States. He recognizes that some form of agreement with Israel will be required to complete this realignment.
But Damascus has its limits. Though Israel is pushing for full normalization, adding Syria to its so-called Abraham Accords with other Arab states, Damascus is insisting on restricting the deal to a security agreement.
“The [Abraham] Accords were signed with states that had no occupied land or direct conflicts with Israel,” Mr. Sharaa told the Saudi publication Al Majallah in August. “Syria’s situation is different, we have the Golan Heights under occupation.”
He appears to have convinced fellow HTS members of the need for a deal.
“What is taking Israel so long?” asks one former commander and current government official, who asked to remain anonymous because he is not permitted to speak to the media. “We have our hand extended and they strike us. What more do they want from us?”
A second HTS official, also unauthorized to speak to the press, insists that “peace with our neighbors and avoiding war is not against our Islamic beliefs. It is our moral duty to our people.”
“We need to cool the conflict with Israel and integrate with our neighbors. It is in the interest of the two peoples not to be in conflict,” says Jumaa Laheeb, director of research at the Syrian Future Movement, a coalition of liberal democratic parties formed in 2012.
Yet there are concerns in Damascus that if Israel pushes too hard – launching more attacks against Syrian military installations, supporting ethnic Druze separatists, and demanding further concessions – Mr. Sharaa could be ousted by a rival in his coalition. That could plunge Syria into war again.
“A dangerous tightrope”
“Sharaa is walking this dangerous tightrope,” says Mr. Mansour. “To the left and to the right, there are people in his coalition who want to out-Palestinize and out-anti-Israel him. It is a very contentious position he finds himself in.”
By and large, war-weary Syrians say they would welcome a security agreement with Israel. Many support a deal that would neither allow Syria to be used as a staging ground for attacks against Israel nor endorse Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory. In other words, a formalized security pact and tacit peace, but not full relations.
“The most important thing is security and stability, we want a security deal but no normalization,” says Marwan Masalam, a health teacher in Damascus. “We Muslims, Christians, and Jews are one people.
“Our problem is with the Zionist regime in Israel,” he explains. “The Zionist regime is conducting a genocide in Gaza. How can we get in bed with them at this time of such slaughter?”
“We should certainly reach an agreement,” says Oweidah, an office worker. “This will help us keep the peace and start reconstruction. We are not currently going to war with Israel. Why should we start now?”
“If we start a war with Israel, we will end up like Gaza and die of hunger and no one will even ask about us,” she adds.
“All Syrians support a security agreement with Israel, says Wael Olwan, an analyst at the Jusoor Center for Studies, a research facility based in Damascus. “The problem is with normalization … but a security pact and a form of peace is in everyone’s interests.”
