As U.S.-Iran nuclear talks enter a second week and low-level talks begin between Turkey and Kurdish separatists, a cautious optimism is taking hold in Iraq.
The country has long been caught in the middle of regional wars and geopolitical tensions. But there is hope here that should these talks succeed, an era of global and regional powers fighting their conflicts on Iraqi soil could finally come to an end.
Internally, Iraq is finally enjoying a sense of stable government and services as it moves past war and the long-lasting harms left by conflict with the Islamic State. But the stability could either be cemented or collapse depending on the talks’ outcomes.
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Iraq has often been in the midst of regional tensions, its territory a proxy field for others’ battles. But as Turkey talks with the Kurds, and the United States engages Iran, Iraq’s leaders and citizens are daring to look to an era of progress and stability.
“Iraq is the first to benefit from any positive development in relations between the U.S. and Iran,” says Ammar al-Hakim, a Shiite cleric and head of the political coalition National Wisdom Movement, “and Iraq is the first to suffer from any tensions between the U.S. and Iran.”
With the threat of war hanging over the Trump administration’s talks with Iran, the stakes are steep here in Iraq, which hosts both U.S. military bases and Iranian proxies.
In the past two years, Iran-aligned militias have used Iraq as a base to launch missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. bases – inviting punishing U.S. military strikes in response.
Resurgent tensions
Observers and officials say Iraq is already feeling the impact of resurgent U.S.-Iranian tensions.
Iraq relies on Iranian gas for its electricity needs. Previously, the United States granted Iraq exemptions from Washington’s anti-Iran sanctions; under the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, those exemptions ended in February. Now Iraq is facing an energy crisis heading into the summer.
An agreement between Washington and Tehran would allow Iraq to resume energy purchases from and through Iran; an influx of cash into Iran would also boost bilateral trade between Iraq and its neighbor, its largest trading partner.
Which is why the Iraqi government is cheering on the talks in public and is pushing the diplomacy in private with key allies Washington and Tehran, whose spheres of influence clash in Iraq.
Iraq welcomed progress in the U.S.-Iran talks this week, with Baghdad’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressing hope that the talks will ease tensions “and enhance security and peace.”
“Iraq has taken the initiative, thanks to our excellent relationships with both sides, to encourage negotiation and understanding as alternatives to tensions, which harm regional stability,” Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told attendees Wednesday at the Sulaimani Forum in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, 55 miles from the Iranian border.
Period of healing
Iraq is enjoying a level of stability and services at home it has not witnessed in two decades.
There is a building boom in Baghdad, Kurdistan, and provinces across the country.
Prime Minister Sudani’s government has largely delivered on its promises to boost essential services and overhaul infrastructure, even members of the opposition admit. Non-oil economic growth reached 5% in 2024.
“The last two years have been a period of healing, between an era of instability and a new permanent stability,” notes Mr. Hakim, whose National Wisdom Movement aligns with cross-confessional politicians across the country. “People finally feel at ease. Iraq has endured much harm in the last two decades, and is not ready to handle additional burdens” should a U.S.-Iran conflict erupt.
“This is the reason that Iraq is trying to improve relations, lessen crises, search for solutions, and encourage the two sides to have dialogue with each other,” he says.
Turkey-Kurdish dialogue
Another hopeful regional development for Iraqis is the beginning of indirect peace talks between Turkey and Kurdish separatists, which Iraqi Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani hailed Wednesday as a “historic opportunity.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met April 10 with the country’s main Kurdish party for the first time since 2012 as it attempts to broker an end to the four-decade conflict between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey has long labeled a terrorist organization. In February, imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called on his supporters to lay down their arms.
“We see developments taking place facilitating peace” between Turkey and the PKK, Mr. Barzani told attendees at the Sulaimani Forum Wednesday. “We welcome this process. … This is an opportunity to strengthen stability in the region.”
To help advance the peace talks, Mr. Barzani met April 11 with Mr. Erdoğan. He also urged the PKK to heed Mr. Öcalan’s calls to disarm.
A Turkish-Kurdish peace process would have an immediate benefit in Iraqi Kurdistan.
As with U.S.-Iran confrontations, Turkey and PKK-aligned groups have fought many of their battles in Iraqi Kurdistan, transforming a stretch of the semiautonomous region in northern Iraq into a war zone and depopulating hundreds of Iraqi Kurdish villages.
The most recent Turkish airstrikes in Iraq were in October 2024.
A peace agreement or deescalation would mean an end to Turkish military strikes across Iraqi Kurdistan, which have reached the outskirts of Sulaymaniyah, killed dozens of innocent civilians, and weighed on the region’s economy.
“A lot of resources are currently spent in dealing with this conflict; people have lost livelihoods, and oil fields are under direct threat,” says Mohammed Hussein, an Iraqi Kurdistan-based economist and analyst.
“If Turkish-Kurdish peace talks proceed with good intentions and we rid ourselves of this military confrontation, it will be a big boon for Iraqi Kurdistan and Iraq as a whole.”
Perilous scenarios
Risks remain.
There are conflicting reports on whether Iran-aligned Shiite militias will preemptively disarm to prevent dragging Iraq into a regional war.
One Shiite militia closely linked to Iran, Kataib Hezbollah, has rejected claims that it would disarm.
Shiite political sources say they believe Iran-aligned militias would stand down to prevent wider war – and are engaged with ongoing diplomacy with Iran on the issue.
The alternative scenarios for Iraq, should the talks collapse, are perilous: Iraqi militias targeting U.S. bases and Israel, Kurdish insurgents expanding their fight against Turkey, all potentially ending in more devastating military strikes on Iraq.
Yet as of now, Iraq’s leaders and politicians are decidedly hopeful – even as they acknowledge the risks.