A new kind of political dialogue has opened among the Iranian people amid the bombing by Israel and the United States. Social media posts and interviews by journalists indicate that some Iranians welcome the attacks on security sites of the highly unpopular regime. Others feel a nationalist resentment toward any foreign intervention or a war that could usurp the pro-democracy movement.
Many struggling to survive simply do not want to speak out at all. Thousands have fled the country.
Yet some see an opening, even a necessity, for individuals to plan for a transition from an Islamic Republic that was faltering long before the bombing and before the regime’s disastrous support of Hamas’ 2023 attack on Israel. After all, in recent days, the supreme leader himself, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has accelerated plans for picking a successor in case he is assassinated. Six years ago, he called for a “second step” of the revolution that would pass the reins to a younger generation with no memory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Among those seeking support for a new government is Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister. From his prison cell, the popular dissident has called for a peaceful shift to democracy through a constituent assembly to write a new constitution. Other prominent dissidents have asked only for an end to the war, a position that at least displays individual agency in the face of harsh censorship.
One woman interviewed by the BBC said the war “gives me a strange sense of clarity – it reminds me that I’m connected to something beyond myself.” A man whose wife is pregnant hoped the coming birth “coincides with the birth of a new Iran – one that adopts a fresh approach toward both the international system and its domestic affairs.”
“And I hope [my children] grow up knowing that surveillance cameras and security forces should be focused on real threats, not on enforcing the hijab [on women],” he added.
One young woman who fled Tehran with her family told the BBC, “We were trying to make changes ourselves inside, and I don’t think a change coming from the US or Israel would be a good change.”
In a new article in Foreign Affairs, three American experts on Iran predicted that another major protest movement will “undoubtedly” now arise like those in 2022 and many times before. “Iran belongs to the Iranians,” the article stated. “They are the only ones who can in the end determine the direction of their country.”
