Friday, March 13, 2026

Iran’s Internal Security Forces Are Being Systematically Assassinated – HotAir

March 13, 2026
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US, Israel Demolishing Iran’s Police State to Free Its People – HotAir
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It’s way too early to determine whether or not Operation Roaring Lion’s objective of bringing down the Iranian regime will be successful or not, but all those military geniuses who claim that it is impossible are stuck in a paradigm that does not apply. 





Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion are unlike anything we have seen in history. That doesn’t mean the strategy behind them will work, of course, but it does mean that judging past performance tells you little about future success. It’s clear that Israel and the United States have a brilliant, if risky, plan to not just decapitate and disarm the Iranian regime’s civilian and military leadership, but also to so demoralize the internal security forces that their will is broken.  

The survival of Saddam Hussein after the Gulf War relied on two important facts: the United States left a significant portion of Iraq’s military intact once we achieved our objectives, and we allowed his internal security forces to operate freely, up to the point of allowing Hussein’s helicopters to strafe civilians and regime opponents. 

It’s not just that we didn’t enter Baghdad. We implicitly enabled him to retain the monopoly on violence within Iraq’s borders, presumably because we didn’t want Iraq to become a failed state. “You break it, you own it,” as Colin Powell said. Bush and Powell didn’t WANT to break Iraq’s regime, just its military capability to stay in Kuwait. 





The United States and Israel WANT to break Iran’s regime, if not own it. From the outset, we have been warning Iran’s population to stay indoors and safe, because the time of liberation was not yet at hand. 

Fellow compatriots,

Critical and fateful days lie ahead.

As you prepare yourselves for the final phase of the struggle, I emphasize that for now, you must refrain from taking to the streets. Do not approach government offices, military sites, police stations, or the residences of organizations affiliated with the repressive apparatus.

The Islamic Republic uses schools, mosques, and other public places to conceal its repressive forces and create human shields. For your own safety, stay away from such locations.

And my special message to government employees: Do not show up at your workplaces under any circumstances. Do not sacrifice your lives and safety for the survival of the Islamic Republic. Do not allow yourselves to be used as human shields. Do not let your work and activities become tools for the repression of your fellow compatriots. Use your access and resources to disrupt the repressive process and assist the people.

Long live Iran,  

Reza Pahlavi





Obviously, there was always a next phase to the war, after the systematic destruction of the regime’s ability to strike outside its borders. But displacing the Iranian regime was a secondary objective to destroying its ability to strike back. And, despite the naysayers in the Democratic Party and the media, who want everybody to believe that Iran will remain militarily strong, it is losing its capacity to defend itself. 

The next phase has begun.

As Democrats declare defeat because the war has taken longer than a week (FFS, man, even the bombing campaign in Iraq lasted 39 days before the tanks started rolling, and that was a smaller battlefield by far), Trump, Hegseth, and Netanyahu have been executing a superb plan to defang both Iran’s military and decapitate the regime. 

In a sense, the second has happened, at least halfway. It’s clear the IRGC is now the ruling faction in Iran, not the “civilian” government. They have installed a dead or dying puppet as a figurehead; one so out of it that he makes Joe Biden look like he was in charge during his “presidency.” There is no “Supreme Leader”; there is a military junta. 





That junta, and its control of the streets, is the target. And the most vulnerable element is the Basij Militia, which is intimidating Iranian citizens. 

In order for the regime to survive, it doesn’t just need to control the IRGC, the army (which is not as fanatical as the IRGC and doesn’t like its rival), and the Masij; it needs to retain command, control, morale, and supply lines to them. And all of those are at great risk, and growing risk. 

It’s hard to say that the stories of defections or desertions are entirely real, and at least some are likely propaganda, but such things can have a bandwagon effect. We tend to assume that everybody in an extremist regime thinks the same way, but it’s quite clear that a lot of people who work in Iran’s government apparatus are just…living the best life they can under the circumstances they are given. Which means we have to change their calculus about how to survive and thrive. 





“I joined the IRGC twelve years ago because I loved my country. Every day we were told that we were the true defenders of Iran, the shield protecting our borders from foreign enemies and terrorists. For a long time I believed it. I wore that uniform with pride.

But eventually it became impossible to ignore the reality of what we were actually protecting. We were not defending the people of Iran. We were defending the bank accounts of our commanders and the survival of a handful of men at the top of power.

My breaking point did not come on a battlefield. It came in the streets of our own cities. When the order came to treat our own brothers and sisters, students, hardworking fathers, and young women who only wanted basic human dignity, as enemies of God and to fire live ammunition into crowds, the illusion collapsed. You cannot look into the eyes of an unarmed twenty year old lying on the asphalt in a pool of blood and still convince yourself that you are on the right side.

I know there are thousands still inside the ranks of the IRGC who feel the same disgust I once felt. They stay because they fear for their families, because of economic pressure, or because the intelligence apparatus watches everyone. But to my former brothers who still wear that uniform, the regime is using you as a wall between its stolen wealth and the anger of the nation. When that wall finally collapses, and it will, they will flee in private jets to places like Caracas or Moscow. You will be the ones left to answer to the people of Iran.

I left everything behind because I could no longer be a jailer in my own home. Now my only hope is that the world hears the voice of the people inside Iran, and that those who still hold weapons lower them from the chests of our youth and finally stand with the people.”

Mehdi, former captain in the IRGC Ground Forces





It is impossible to say that this strategy will work, but comparisons to the bombing campaigns of old probably don’t apply. We are not striking the population and building up its will to fight; we are striking at enforcers of a brutal regime that is hated by much of the population and waiting for the opportunity to strike. 

We know that because tens of thousands died, and hundreds of thousands more showed their willingness to take risks to take that regime down. 

Will the strategy work? It is impossible to say until this is over. It is risky, obviously, but it has a plausible path to success. 

All the claims that there is no strategy are bunk. There is. The only real question is whether it will succeed. Because in war, the enemy gets a say. 


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