The war in Iran has increased the risk of an attack in Britain, the head of counter terrorism policing warned on Wednesday.
Scotland Yard Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor fears the conflict could act as a ‘trigger’ for an attack on UK soil.
He spoke out as it can be revealed that the rising threat from Iran has now overtaken Russia, after the number of plots uncovered more than doubled in the past three years.
The Islamic Republic now represents the biggest proportion of hostile state casework for MI5 and police, leaving Moscow and Beijing trailing.
In the past 12 months, more than 20 Iranian plots, including kidnaps and attempted assassinations, were smashed compared with ten in 2023.
Mr Taylor said: ‘There is no question the ambition [from Iran] has increased. In terms of volume, I would predict and imagine that will continue to rise.’
He said ongoing strikes by the US and Israel may inspire a lone offender and there is also a risk of retaliation from a vengeful Tehran using Iranian spies or criminal proxies.
Mr Taylor added: ‘I think it would be very surprising if the events in the Middle East didn’t have an impact on the UK.’
Scotland Yard Assistant Commissioner Laurence Taylor (pictured on March 24) fears the war in Iran could act as a ‘trigger’ for an attack on UK soil
The senior officer spoke out just days after a firebomb attack on Jewish community ambulances in north London (pictured the aftermath), which is seen as an anti-Semitic hate crime
The vehicles were set ablaze in the heart of one of the largest Jewish communities in London
The senior officer spoke out just days after a firebomb attack on Jewish community ambulances in north London, which is seen as an anti-Semitic hate crime.
A suspected Iranian terror group is said to have claimed responsibility within hours, though doubts have been cast over the credibility of this.
The Golders Green incident is not being treated as a terror attack – but when asked whether there could be another assault on the Jewish community, Mr Taylor said: ‘There is a potential. One of the challenges is we’re approaching Passover, a key religious date in the Jewish community.
‘They’ve already suffered the Yom Kippur attack at the Manchester synagogue and we saw the Bondi Beach attack.’
He revealed an extra 264 officers – including armed patrols, drones and mounted police – are being deployed to protect the Jewish community over the next five weeks as part of ‘wider protective security’. Passover starts on April 1.
Mr Taylor added: ‘It’s the fear those communities feel. We think it’s really important there is a visible show [of officers] on top of what we’re already doing, which is quite an enhanced posture within Jewish communities over this next period, just so that they can be reassured that police are on it and that they’re safe.
‘We also know that anti-Semitic attacks, in the UK and across the world, have increased. Understandably, they are frightened.’
Mr Taylor said police were now intervening earlier as risk has become ‘more unpredictable’.
‘Our threshold for intervention has probably fallen a little bit in the current context, because we want to make sure we can manage that threat,’ he added.
‘What that means is we are less inclined to let investigations run for longer, just in case somebody says overnight I’m going to do something.
‘It would not be right for the public if we are investigating an individual and we had an opportunity to intervene.
‘I think the risk could be more unpredictable and that is a challenge.
‘When it becomes more unpredictable, and you’re seeing things on the news that might trigger a behaviour, we want to make sure that we have taken all possible steps to manage that threat.’
But he stressed that the official UK threat assessment of terrorism had not changed from substantial, which means an attack is likely.
Three hooded suspects were seen approaching the vehicles before they were set alight on March 23
Threat levels are determined by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre, an independent body based within MI5.
Mr Taylor said: ‘Geopolitical events clearly have a bearing on the things we see, the activity we see, it has an effect on our caseload, not always immediately, but often with a tail.
‘It probably increases the risk of something happening because those individuals who may previously have been in that space, may take a geopolitical issue as their trigger.’
Scotland Yard Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley this week warned: ‘The rapid growth in recent years of Iranian state threats is grave: hostile state surveillance activity, 20 disrupted plots, and recent attempted attacks on the Iranian diaspora.
‘None of this is isolated. It is part of a rapidly shifting threat.’
Yesterday a senior security official said Mossad has ramped up work with Britain since the war erupted as Israel’s intelligence agency believes Europe has become the ‘central arena’ for Iranian attacks abroad.
The representative said: ‘There is a wave on the way. Iran understands it’s harder to attack Israel, but Europe is a whole different story.
‘Europe has become the central arena. It’s easier to attack Jewish, Israeli, and Western targets there.
‘This is a British problem, not just an Israeli problem. You have to move from prevention to action. This threat is already inside Europe.
‘Co-operation [with Mossad] has increased. There is intelligence sharing. It is much easier for Iranians to attack Jewish communities in Western targets.
‘It’s like in a tsunami, you see that in the beginning something wrong is happening. It’s very easy to manipulate people to initiate actions against Western sites.
‘I think that the Iranians will try to make more and more actions.
‘I can tell you the Iranian state of mind – let’s put some pressure on the home front in the UK and in Europe and maybe the European pressure will push the Americans to stop the war.’
