Throughout most of Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States, Europe’s leaders have seemed bullied, belittled, and marginalized.
Then came the Iran war.
For the first time since Mr. Trump returned to office, Europe is proving essential to the president’s interests. Without access to European bases, the war in Iran would be orders of magnitude more difficult, if not impossible. Meanwhile, an outburst at a March 26 White House Cabinet meeting indicated just how bitterly Mr. Trump wants Europe to do more to join the fight.
Why We Wrote This
The war in Iran is showing that Europe has more leverage over the United States than its leaders had thought. But can they use it?
“We are very disappointed with NATO because NATO has done absolutely nothing,” he said.
For once, it appears Europe has the leverage. And this comes only months after Europe stood up to Mr. Trump on his claims to Greenland, forcing the president to back down.
Europe, it seems, has arrived at a moment when it can at least somewhat readjust the balance of power.
On one hand, the Trump administration has likely realized that Europe is vital to its security interests, and that acting alone has consequences when the road turns rough.
Yet Europe’s unwillingness to do more to capitalize on the situation speaks to the core challenges facing modern Europe: Leaders seem to be scared of what Mr. Trump might do in return, and therefore too divided to settle on a clear course of action.
This, ironically, is one reason Mr. Trump has been so dismissive of Europe. While he has been able to centralize significant power, allowing him wide scope for decisive action, Europe remains a comparatively fractious collection of nations more comfortable with incremental steps.
But if Iran shows one thing that has changed, it is that Europe is slowly growing a thicker skin. Leaders are still trying to work with Mr. Trump, hoping they can keep their historical ties to the U.S. intact. But experts say they are no longer terrified by every statement and social media post.
“Europe has realized a lot of these threats are empty,” says Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. “There is a little more shrug of the shoulders. In 2025, there was immediate panic.”
Iran has been an example of how this new balancing act plays out.
European leaders seem convinced that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign has virtually no chance of overthrowing the Iranian regime. It is casting the region and energy markets into chaos for no real purpose, they argue. Not only that, it is widely unpopular.
A poll by German TV station ARD found that 58% of respondents said the war was not justified, with 75% worried that it will spread to other countries. Trust in the U.S. fell to 15%, the lowest level in two decades. Polls around Europe show similar results.
Leaders are avoiding appearing connected to the war. But it affects them and is of great importance to Mr. Trump. The answer has been to distance themselves from the war but let the United States use their European bases. The U.S. is running various operations from England, France, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Germany.
Ramstein Air Base in Germany is an example of how crucial European bases are to the operation. Many of the American military’s regional information technology-based operations are run from Ramstein, including artificial intelligence activities. It is a hub for targeting control, says Ulrich Kühn, an analyst for the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy in Hamburg, Germany.
In recent years, he adds, “the base has even increased in importance when conducting a war in the Middle East.”
Several countries have also sought to offer help – under specific conditions. This includes the potential deployment of minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz once hostilities are over.
Apart from Spain, which refused to allow its bases to be used for the war, most European countries have conspicuously avoided extremes. They have not openly condemned the U.S., nor have they asked for concessions for the use of their bases.
One great concern is Mr. Trump’s unpredictable nature, in particular on Ukraine. He has shown only lukewarm support for that war, and some worry that upsetting him could lead him to act on threats of backing out or abandoning Europe.
“They’re afraid that if they push the envelope, it will end up a self-fulfilling prophecy when he does those things,” says Dr. Kühn.
But as a practical matter, Europe isn’t united enough to use leverage the way Mr. Trump does, he adds. “That’s not how Europe operates.”
For now, Europe seems to mostly hoping the lessons of the Iran war might sink in.
“It’s the first time [the members of the Trump administration] genuinely realize they need Europe,” says Dr. Matthijs. “There’s something to be said for building coalitions.”
