It has been a quiet week at the Texas Capitol. That might be about to change.
Democratic lawmakers, who fled the state on Aug. 3 to block a controversial redistricting effort, said Thursday they’re prepared to “bring this battle back to Texas,” after seeing encouraging signs that other states are supporting their cause. Also on Thursday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that legislators in his state plan to submit new congressional maps favoring Democrats to voters on Nov. 4.
Redistricting has long represented zero-sum politics in its purest form. From blue states to red states, the majority party often uses the redistricting process to maximize – or at least protect – its position as the majority party. Traditionally, this process occurs once a decade, but that can sometimes result in a map that favored the majority party early in the decade becoming unfavorable by the end of the decade.
Why We Wrote This
Redistricting has long represented zero-sum politics. The current political fight in Texas over redistricting, as well as the efforts it has inspired in California and other states, is a sign that hard-nosed politics are now, more than ever, the norm.
Texas Republicans want to address that issue before the 2026 midterms, by redrawing maps mid-cycle to secure five additional Republican seats in Congress. It’s an aggressive move, and it has prompted an aggressive response from Democratic lawmakers.
With the anticipated return of the protesting lawmakers, the GOP-friendly map is expected to be adopted. But the high-profile struggle in Texas – featuring lawsuits, fines, and threats of arrest – is a sign that hard-nosed, zero-sum strategies are now, more than ever, the currency of the realm in American politics.
“Compromise is increasingly seen as a dirty word, and [a word] that synonymizes with capitulation,” says Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University in Houston.
But there are signs that this winner-take-all approach isn’t settling well with the general public.
A YouGov survey this month found that a majority of Americans disapprove of the redistricting effort by the Texas GOP, though a majority of Republican voters approve of the effort. Respondents were more mixed in their opinions of the Democrats’ quorum break. A recent poll of likely midterm voters in Texas – conducted by Z to A Research, a firm with ties to the Democratic Party – found that a majority of voters want the state’s current special session to prioritize disaster relief in response to a devastating flash flood on July 4. A majority of likely voters oppose the redistricting effort in this special session, according to the poll.
Pressing for more Republican seats
The Texas legislature concluded its regular business in early June. The redistricting legislation is being considered as part of a 30-day special session that began in late July. In mid-July, President Donald Trump said he wants a “simple redrawing” of the state’s congressional map so that Republicans can win more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, where the GOP holds a seven-seat majority.
The incumbent president’s party traditionally struggles in midterm elections, and with such an election next year, the White House – beginning in June, according to The New York Times – began to urge Texas Republicans to use mid-decade redistricting moves to prevent Democrats from winning a House majority and stymieing Mr. Trump’s agenda.
For some GOP lawmakers in Texas, that is reason enough to adopt more Republican-friendly maps.
“It’s what my voters want,” says state Rep. Brian Harrison, who represents a House district south of Dallas. Mr. Trump won the state by 14 points last year, he notes, and his constituents “want bold Republican leadership.”
“The future of our country hangs in the balance. The stakes couldn’t be higher,” he adds.
But there are other reasons, too. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has said that redistricting is on the special session agenda to address concerns that the current congressional map is unlawful.
Some Texas Republicans claim they are following a precedent set by leaders in blue states, where Democratic lawmakers have aggressively gerrymandered Republicans out of power. Republicans here also say they are responding to changes in voter behavior in recent elections, particularly among Hispanic voters.
Chuck DeVore, a Republican who served in the California State Assembly in the early 2000s before moving to Texas, says that the congressional map in California is even more favorable to Democrats than the current Texas map is now or would be if the legislature approves the new map proposed this month.
Texas Republicans “drew very conservative, meaning low-risk, lines in 2022,” he says.
Ironically, Mr. DeVore adds, the proposed map that has sparked such partisan fury in the state could backfire on Republicans. “You have this potential pickup of five [seats], but I would argue you have more seats that are competitive compared to today,” he says.
Fighting words
The quorum break in Texas has prompted weeks of inflamed rhetoric and fiery accusations from members of both parties.
State Democratic leaders have called the redistricting effort “corrupt” and said that they are “fighting for America.” In turn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton asked the state Supreme Court last week to permanently expel 13 absent Democrats from office. Gov. Abbott has brought a similar request to the courts. (The court has delayed ruling on the two cases.) Republican Sen. John Cornyn has asked the FBI to help find quorum breakers and said the bureau has agreed to help, though it’s unclear whether federal agents could make any arrests.
Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows, meanwhile, has said he has asked state troopers to track down quorum breakers. He’s also issued civil arrest warrants for Texas Democrats in Illinois, though an Illinois judge ruled this week that his court lacks the authority to enforce civil warrants issued in Texas. Speaker Burrows also announced a range of financial penalties – including daily fines and the withholding of direct deposit paychecks – against quorum breakers.
Strange as it might now seem, the Texas House of Representatives has historically been the institution in which compromise and bipartisanship have been most prevalent. Part of this is by design. Chamber rules have allowed members of the minority party to hold influential positions on committees. A rule that the chamber must achieve a quorum of two-thirds of its members has also incentivized Republicans and Democrats in the past to find common ground.
Texas is one of only four states with such a quorum requirement, and it is this requirement that has enabled walkouts to occur throughout state history. This is the second such walkout in four years, and it’s a sign that polarization has been taking an increasingly powerful hold on the legislature.
“The one institution where Democrats have played a larger role in the policymaking process has been the House,” says Dr. Jones. “What we’re seeing is, even there, Democrats are starting to break with the norm of working with [Republican] leadership.”
The spiral of polarization appears poised to expand beyond Texas. Governor Newsom held a rally on Thursday to launch his own redistricting effort to add five Democratic-leaning seats to his state’s congressional map. Republican lawmakers in other states, such as Missouri and Ohio, are eyeing mid-decade redistricting for their own maps.
Rep. Harrison – who was elected in Texas four years ago, after serving in the first Trump administration – says he’s drawing inspiration from what his Democratic colleagues have been doing.
“In my four years, I’ve only seen one party fight aggressively for the future, and it’s not been the Republicans,” he adds.
“I’m sick and tired of Democrats fighting more aggressively than Republicans.”
