Weather forecasts. Nautical charts used by the U.S. Navy. The cleaning and reopening of shipping ports after hurricanes. Seasonal climate predictions that help farmers plan their crop selection.
All these fall under the purview of a federal agency called NOAA – the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – that could soon lose a quarter of its budget.
On May 2, the White House released preliminary details of its budget request for discretionary spending in the new fiscal year. The document provides a blueprint of the comprehensive budget the White House will send to Congress for its budget process. The document calls for $163 billion in cuts across the government and signals a desire to slash “spending contrary to the needs of ordinary working Americans.” Climate-related efforts, especially those the administration calls “radical,” were a target.
Why We Wrote This
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration plays a key role in weather forecasts and hurricane warnings. Proposed budget cuts to the agency reflect the Trump administration’s frustration with its climate research.
The budget proposes a $1.5 billion reduction to NOAA funding – almost a 24% decrease from current funding levels. That’s left scientists and industry experts deeply concerned that NOAA won’t be able to fulfill services to people who depend on them, such as fishers, farmers, and the general public.
In the budget’s brief description of the cuts, climate change is heavily emphasized. The budget’s authors write that cuts will target climate research and grant programs, as well as a satellite program and instruments used for climate measurement. But experts and agency staff say the suggested cuts could have wide-reaching impacts, including downgrading the quality of weather forecasts and other critical services.
Following the budget’s release, all living former directors of the National Weather Service, which falls under NOAA, drafted an open letter warning of drastic impacts if the proposed cuts were implemented.
“NWS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services,” including extreme weather warnings, the five former directors wrote. “Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life.”
NOAA, housed under the Commerce Department, has already faced cuts from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Nearly 10% of employees have been laid off, or accepted early retirement or a government-offered buyout, following warnings that their employment was uncertain.
Agency operations have also slowed as Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick reviews all NOAA contracts over $100,000. One agency scientist the Monitor spoke with, who requested anonymity for job protection, says the center they work at has operated without maintenance or facilities services since mid-April.
In the past, the president’s proposed budget has sometimes been seen as a symbolic gesture. But that may not be the case anymore, as Republicans in Congress strive to demonstrate that they’re in lockstep with President Donald Trump.
Allies of President Trump have previously called for breaking up NOAA. The conservative Project 2025 policy guidelines released ahead of the 2024 election called the agency’s research arm a source of “climate alarmism” and said the “preponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded.”
Will weather alerts be affected?
The National Weather Service under NOAA provides weather, water, and climate forecasts. It’s now become a focal point for alarm about what cuts to NOAA might mean for everyday people.
Millions of Americans receive weather information from the NWS. That includes daily weather forecasts as well as warnings for extreme weather such as hurricanes and tornadoes. It also includes people who use private apps instead of their phone’s generic weather app – the data is still gathered by NOAA.
The reductions in workforce due to DOGE are already starting to impact weather services. In March, the NWS announced it was suspending weather balloon launches out of some offices. These launches are used to collect atmospheric data that informs weather forecasts. Launches have been halted or reduced at more than 10% of regular locations since the Trump administration took office.
Staffing shortages are also starting to impact local offices’ ability to operate around the clock. CNN reported on May 2 that 30 of the NWS’s 122 weather forecast offices lack a meteorologist-in-charge – the person responsible for the office’s operations.
In their letter, the former NWS directors warn that some local forecast offices could be forced to switch to part-time services – something that has already happened in at least one office, according to the CNN report.
Daniel Swain, a research fellow at the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, says around-the-clock staffing is critical to these offices’ ability to respond to severe weather as it occurs.
If offices started having to shut down, he says, “that’s the kind of thing that could be genuinely and acutely life-threatening day by day.”
Many experts say the NWS already operates on a bare-bones budget, making any further cuts disastrous. Even if these cuts to NOAA don’t directly target the NWS, former directors say weather forecasts will still suffer given the interconnectedness of NOAA offices.
Rear Admiral Timothy Gallaudet, who served as acting NOAA administrator under Mr. Trump in his first administration, says things will inevitably go wrong under a workforce that’s stretched too thin, no matter how competent the employees may be.
“They’re going to have less people for backup, and they’re going to get tired, and mistakes are going to be made,” he says. “This is just straining them like nothing else. So things are going to slip – and that’s public safety right there.”
Paring back research investments
Scientists say cuts in other areas of NOAA may be less visible but could impede the agency’s ability to improve its research, eroding America’s status as a global leader in weather science.
For example, NOAA’s research office funds 10 university-run laboratories. Scientists in many of these laboratories study Earth’s atmosphere and ocean and work to improve computer models that form the basis of weather forecasts. One center, which has partnered with NOAA since 1973, helped pioneer a data-collection program that enhanced the accuracy of hurricane forecasts by 10-30%.
A leaked memo in April indicated that the administration had planned to propose ending funding for all these labs and to formally eliminate NOAA’s research arm. It’s not clear from the preliminary budget released on Friday whether these changes are still part of the administration’s request – and even if they are, the cuts may not be approved by Congress. The White House has not replied to requests for comment.
But a lot of experts are still concerned. Without ongoing research to improve forecast models, Alan Sealls, the president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, worries the United States will fall behind the rest of the world.
If you’re a sports team owner and you stop investing in your team research, he says, “you might do great this year, but over time, your team is going to be weaker than all the other teams” that continue to prioritize learning and studying.
Rear Admiral Gallaudet says it would be wrong to assume NOAA doesn’t need to keep researching to improve its weather models. He points to an instance a few years ago when the agency missed a forecast for a tornado that struck a neighborhood, resulting in loss of life.
“We still have a reason to improve our forecasting capability,” he says. “We’re not there yet.”
If planned cuts are carried out, adds Rear Admiral Gallaudet, “any improvement is just going to flat-out stop.”
