The news out of Virginia is bleak.
After four years of solid leadership from Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, the Virginia GOP is poised to lose every major statewide race this November. New polling released by Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) on Thursday reveals a grim reality for Republicans as gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears trails former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger by double digits in the general.
Just as concerning are the down ballot races where Republicans are also struggling mightily against the Democrats. Jason Miyares, the incumbent attorney general and a once-promising figure among young American conservatives, is down 9 points to former state Democratic Del. Jay Jones. John Reid, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor and a former talk show host who has been embroiled in an embarrassing scandal, trails state Democratic Sen. Ghazala Hashmi by 10.
Following the dismal numbers, Earle-Sears, who anchored Youngkin’s 2021 ticket, fired campaign manager Will Archer, a pastor with no previous political experience. Earle-Sears has struggled to match her challenger’s impressive fundraising and the poor numbers from VCU are further evidence that she is failing to find her footing on the campaign trail sans Youngkin. Spanberger has led Democrats to a record-breaking fundraising haul this year, pulling in a commanding $10.7 million in the second quarter alone. Earle-Sears, in comparison, raised $5.9 million during the same period. In total, Spanberger has raised more than $27 million while Earle-Sears has taken in less than $12 million.
And living in the Commonwealth, that money gap shows. We are five months out from the election and ads for Spanberger are wall to wall on the local TV channels. Spanberger, a former intelligence officer at the CIA and graduate of the University of Virginia, leans into her centrist zeal in the spots promising Virginians that she will work in a bipartisan manner to “lower costs and make sure our schools prepare all our kids for jobs of the future.” Spanberger’s selling point is simple: She looks and speaks like a Central Virginia suburban mom while touting the professional accomplishments of a late career bureaucrat.
Spanberger has found easy favor with the Acela-corridor Virginians just south of DC who work for the federal government and are frustrated by President Donald Trump’s decision to slash federal jobs. Spanberger has tactfully attached herself to the issue, even authoring an opinion piece in Fox News that was published Friday. Democrats, already angry and motivated following the 2024 election, view her campaign as a vessel to fight and stand against the Trump administration and Spangberger’s numbers reflect that the strategy is working.
Earle-Sears, on the other hand, has grappled with identity issues on the campaign trail. A black immigrant born in Jamaica who grew up in the Bronx and served as an electrician in the U.S. Marines, Earle-Sears has struggled as much as any Republican in recent memory to capture the black vote. VCU’s poll finds that Earle-Sears is losing the black vote to Spanberger by 63 points, suggesting she has struggled to connect with voters outside the Republican moat. Even within the moat, where her gun-toting bona fides were heralded in the 2021 election, Earle-Sears has struggled to gain traction with a base that isn’t as outwardly MAGA as other statewide Republican coalitions.
Earle-Sears is also a noted social conservative who opposes same-sex marriage and once called abortion “genocide” on the campaign trail. In Virginia, a state whose electorate has increasingly swung left on social issues in the high-density population centers outside Richmond and DC, opposing same-sex marriage and abortion is a tough sell in 2025. And on the topic of same-sex marriage, Earle-Sears is well to the right of her own ticket. Republican candidate for lieutenant governor John Reid, a gay man, said on Wednesday that he would support repealing the state constitution’s ban on same-sex marriage.
With less than five months until the election on November 4th, Earle-Sears has limited options to turn the tide of the race. One hope is that Youngkin, who is polling with a healthy 49 percent approval, will become more active and join Earle-Sears on the campaign trail in October. But Youngkin, who is also polling well in a potential senatorial matchup with incumbent Democrat Sen. Mark Warner, has shown a reluctance to throw his political capital in with Earle-Sears, especially given her increasingly narrow path to victory.
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It’s a shame for Republicans who had been an afterthought in Virginia statewide politics for nearly 15 years before Youngkin’s shock elevation to the governor’s mansion in 2021. Then, the Covid pandemic and education reform dominated the headlines, two issues that favored the ascendent GOP. Republicans capitalized on the chaos with a balanced ticket that promised both the stability of Youngkin paired with the anti-establishment fervor of Earle-Sears and Miyares. With Youngkin term limited and thus unable to run for reelection, the responsibility to appeal on more moderate issues has fallen to Earl-Sears, who has failed to meet the moment.
Though there is still time for her to pick up votes, Earl-Sears’ campaign must find a way to make up for an enthusiasm gap within the motivated electorate. Democrats view the off-year election as a referendum on Trump’s White House and are keen to use their votes to make a statement. Earl-Sears also must make up ground on core economic issues that have come to define Spanberger’s campaign. Though Youngkin’s office has done a tremendous job pitching Virginia as a high-growth state that is attractive for businesses, Earle-Sears has focused much of her campaign on public safety, promising to lock up violent criminals. Spanberger’s campaign, in comparison, has highlighted the affordability crisis of Virginians who are struggling with higher rent and grocery prices.
The party in the White House has lost every Virginia gubernatorial race except one in the state since 1977. For Earle-Sears and the Republicans in Virginia, it’s going to take a miracle to break that streak.
