The Epstein Files are the left’s white knight, the deus ex machina they hope will finally destroy Donald Trump. It is believed Epstein, a pig of a man who is now the unlikely savior of the Democratic Party, will succeed in bringing down Trump where multiple impeachments, Russiagate, the ex-fixer Michael Cohen, endless prosecutions over increasingly arcane financial acts, three elections, late night TV, and whatever is the gaffe or rudeness of the week have failed. This is unlikely.
One reason the soon-to-be-released Epstein files are unlikely to fatally damage Trump is that very little in the new documents will be truly new. Trump’s past social interactions with Epstein have been public knowledge for decades. Photos of the two men at parties were published long before Epstein’s 2019 arrest. Trump acknowledges knowing Epstein, once calling him “a terrific guy” in a 2002 magazine interview; he has said they later had a falling-out. None of this has produced much legal or even reputational exposure. To bring down a political figure like Trump, there must be a revelation, a mediagenic single piece of information that dramatically shifts the known narrative. Without a revelatory moment, the story cannot cross the threshold from speculation to actionable misconduct.
The files released to date contain no evidence of Trump’s participation in Epstein’s trafficking. But it’s not as if the Justice Department (DOJ) information about Epstein has been sitting around unexamined. Five years ago, the DOJ’s Office of Professional Responsibility released the results of its extensive investigation into how Epstein secured a lenient plea deal in Florida in 2008. The 348-page document only said the deal reflected “poor judgment.” It also noted the prosecutor in charge of child exploitation cases at the time said that none of the victims he spoke with “ever talked about any other men being involved in abusing them.”
What remains is only speculation. Epstein was arrested in 2019, during the first Trump presidency. Nothing came out. Very significantly, the Biden administration held the same files for four years and nothing came out. Former Vice President Kamala Harris ran against Trump in a heated campaign and nothing came out. Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell was convicted of sex trafficking and nothing came out. Of the hundreds, maybe thousands, of celebrities, house servants, airplane mechanics, et al. who would have interacted with Epstein, none have come out, not even perhaps to turn state’s witness and save themselves from a conspiracy charge.
The one man who knew everything, Epstein himself, is dead by suicide. The most convincing victim willing to speak out, Virginia Giuffre, is dead by suicide (though she made no allegations against Trump while alive or in her book). Maxwell’s strategy has been to remain tight-lipped; she will plead the Fifth in the House Epstein probe. This is not to say that some or all of that left unsaid may contain important material, but rather that, despite everything, the hard reality is nothing has tied Trump to the crimes. Nothing but wishful thinking suggests the new document dump will be any different.
This is not a surprise. The files coming out were prepared by the Department of Justice to prosecute Epstein, the sole defendant. Why would they contain critical information about others who could also become defendants but somehow just didn’t? The FBI and DOJ wrote that the documents “did not expose any additional third-parties to allegations of illegal wrongdoing… We did not uncover evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties.”
Epstein has been one of the most investigated criminals in modern American history. After his 2006 Florida charges, state prosecutors, civil attorneys, newspapers, investigative journalists, and advocacy groups examined his case extensively. After his 2019 arrest, scrutiny intensified further. Ghislaine Maxwell’s trial produced thousands of pages of documents. Throughout, Trump has been scrutinized by political opponents, media outlets, litigation adversaries, and multiple prosecutors. If any credible Epstein-related allegation involving Trump existed, the likelihood that it would have remained hidden through such sustained examination is extremely small.
Here’s one thing the new documents will certainly contain: the names of well-known people who associated with Epstein. These associations are not evidence of criminal or immoral conduct. The already-known Epstein’s contact lists, party guest books, flight manifests, and social calendars include a vast array of individuals. The mere presence of a name in a contact file, a Christmas card list, or a flight log does not demonstrate involvement in illegal or immoral activity.
This distinction matters because the bar is extremely high. To bring down a public figure, especially one as lawyered-up as Trump, prosecutors would need corroborated evidence of a specific criminal act, a credible witness, and a clear link tying Trump to the conduct. The Epstein files are messy, sprawling, and most often ambiguous. They reveal Epstein had connections with many people, but they do not, by themselves, yet create a case. Of course in certain circles, such as at Harvard, this might be enough to bring down someone (see Larry Summers). But Trump is different.
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The most plausible fallout from the files will occur far below Trump’s level. Trump’s persona is based on the perception that he is constantly under attack from elites, institutions, and the media. New allegations often serve to reinforce, not weaken, his supporters’ belief that he is being unfairly targeted. Take a look at the Access Hollywood tape, two impeachments, multiple criminal indictments, civil judgments, 34 felonies, and the host of other scandals that would have ended the careers of any other politician. Few MAGA voters remain who would meaningfully shift their position because of guilt-by-association allegations in decades-old documents. And the media will no doubt overplay any tidbits found, adding to MAGA’s view of them as predators in their own right.
Absent new and concrete evidence, which has not surfaced in any release to date, the Epstein files will generate headlines and endless conspiracy theories but not collapse the administration. Trump has survived scandals far more direct and damaging. The Epstein story will continue to matter deeply for victims seeking truth and accountability, but in American politics, it is unlikely to deliver the downfall some predict.
