It’s no fun to wake up to rumours of war. Admittedly, it’s a lot better than waking up to war, which a lot of Ukrainians had to experience in 2022. I should feel grateful that I woke up to sunshine and birdsong and found “X” abuzz with news about a Russian drone incursion into Poland rather than being yanked out of my sleep by the sound of bombs.
The Russians deny that the drones were “of Russian provenance”. The Belarusians, meanwhile, who shot down some drones that had crossed their border, have claimed that they had gone astray as a result of electronic jamming – without naming whose drones they actually were. Another possibility, of course, is that they were Russian drones and the Russians knew exactly what they were doing.
If this was indeed a Russian provocation, it was a serious one, which comes before major Russian-Belarusian military exercises in Belarus this week. It makes sense that Putin would want to intimidate the West and thumb his nose at NATO — testing its military preparedness as well as the official and public mood.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said that the prospect of conflict with Russia is “closer than at any time since the Second World War”. Tusk has invoked NATO’s “Article 4”, which demands talks when “the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of [its] parties is threatened”.
Dark times. As someone who lives in Poland, it was hard to walk my dog through quiet Silesian streets this morning without feeling a sense of dread creeping up my spine. Poles, and friends of Poland, never feel very far from conflict with Russia. But here’s the thing: if this was indeed a Russian provocation then it was clearly meant to scare us. It was meant to give us the impression that our lives hang in the balance.
There is some extent to which this is uncomfortably true. War is Hell — and war with Russia would entail tremendous death and suffering. All diplomatic measures should be taken to avoid such a hideous and profoundly stupid outcome.
But the fact remains that such a war is absolutely not in Putin’s interests. NATO has a massively stronger military than Russia when it comes to personnel, equipment and wealth. Even without the USA — just for the sake of argument — NATO has more men and materiel. The Russian Armed Forces have experience on their side — but that experience has come with massive ongoing losses. Even if the Chinese have supported Russia in Ukraine, meanwhile, it is hard to see them supporting broader violence on a continent where they have such extensive trade interests.
It would be cheap to point out that Russia cannot beat Ukraine without acknowledging that (a) it has the upper hand and (b) Ukraine has had extensive support from NATO. Still, with regards to the first point, it has taken three years and the loss of tens of thousands of men in a war that the Kremlin expected to last for ten days. (Great job, guys.) With regards to the second point, NATO might have given Ukraine equipment but at least some of its armies, including Poland’s, have been growing stronger at the same time. We can say without bravado, then, that if the Russians think they have seen suffering, they have not seen anything yet.
This is by no means to claim that Russia won’t attack a NATO state. War did not make sense in 2022 and it still took place. Realism should not mean expecting people to be realistic. But we should still resist the idea of the inevitability of war. This incursion is not Hitler invading Czechoslovakia. To me, it looks like an exercise in geopolitical trolling — an act of spiteful underhanded provocation rather than arrogant military dominance.
We can be sure the Russians were monitoring their rivals’ response
It is unfortunate that only four drones were shot down. It seems that NATO states should be investing more in air defence. Whatever lay behind the drone incursion last night, we can be sure the Russians were monitoring their rivals’ response.
Still, we should resist being drawn towards excessive alarm. We should avoid knee-jerk responses like a ban on Russian citizens, which would harden hearts for no particular strategic gain. But we should also just avoid wallowing in a sense of doom. Dutch and Italian as well as Polish planes were scrambled in a display of military unity. Valuable lessons will have been — or should have been — learned. NATO militaries are growing stronger, and at least some of its states are growing richer, while Russian women continue burying their sons and husbands. If Putin is indeed enjoying the sight of NATO confusion and alarm, he should remember — and he should be encouraged to remember — the countless beds that will never be filled, and the countless hearts that will never be healed.
