Reform UK have been ramping up their nationwide movement in recent weeks, with a spate of defections to the party in Scotland, followed shortly by a surge in campaigning success in Wales ahead of the Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections which must be held by May 2026.
While it was expected that Nigel Farage’s Party would expand operation across Great Britain following their local election success in May, the organisation has been putting out feelers farther afield. Members of the Party in Northern Ireland this week received an email from Michael Hadwen, Reform UK’s Director of Campaigns and Training, stating that they were “reaching out to explore the possibility of developing Reform UK’s presence in Northern Ireland”.
While the level of presence being debated is still in its very earliest days, the Party is keen to “understand whether there is local meaningful interest and appetite for building something meaningful in Northern Ireland”. Hadwen went on to explain that they were interested in speaking to individuals who may be keen to get involved in setting up interim branches, coordinating local activity, and becoming a local point of contact for Reform UK goings-on in Northern Ireland, marking a clear step-up in their activity levels in the state.
Following the upcoming Welsh and Scottish Parliament elections, and the remainder of the local council elections which didn’t take place this year following local authority restructuring, both of which have less than a year to take place, Northern Ireland is next up. With a deadline of just under two years from now, elections to both local councils and the Stormont Assembly in Northern Ireland will take place, likely on the same day. Reform UK testing the waters at this early stage means they could be serious about the level of their involvement here.
Of course, this would not be the first time the Party has taken an active participation in political affairs west of the North Channel. Prior to the fateful 2024 General Election, Reform UK had made an electoral pact with the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), a small yet growing political party operating in the more unionist areas of Northern Ireland. At this time, Richard Tice was still leading Reform, with Ben Habib as co-deputy leader (alongside David Bull, who was recently announced as the Party’s new Chairman).
Reform and the TUV were, at this stage, aligned on the view of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the state’s post-Brexit relationship status with the European Union, viewing it as farcical and those parties which supported it as not acting in unionism’s best interest. It was then agreed that at the General Election, the TUV candidates would be fielded under a joint Reform UK-TUV logo, having had their application to list candidates on ballot papers as both representing the TUV and Reform UK rejected by the Electoral Office.
One month before the Election was to take place, however, Nigel Farage replaced Richard Tice as Chairman, and soon announced that the electoral pact would no longer take place, due to his personal relationships and subsequent endorsements of the Democratic Unionist Party’s candidates Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr. This threw the TUV into disarray, as it was too late to rebrand all election material to remove the joint logo.
At the Election, however, TUV candidate Jim Allister took the seat from the Farage-endorsed Paisley Jr, who had represented the constituency of North Antrim since 2010, after succeeding his late father Ian Paisley, to whom the seat had belonged since 1970. Allister had commented that he would be entering Westminster “in spite of” Farage’s actions.
This debacle has, naturally, made unionists in Northern Ireland slightly apprehensive about the possibility of further Reform UK inroads being made there. Following the recent riots in Ballymena which erupted after the alleged sexual assault of a teenage girl by several Roma men — the second incident of this nature in less than a month — concern regarding immigration is at a record high in Northern Ireland. Such fears may spark an interest in any potential Reform offering, especially if the Party clarifies its immigration policy which has been delayed.
I spoke to one TUV representative, who wished to remain anonymous, about the Party’s thoughts on what Farage’s organisation increasing its activity in Northern Ireland might mean for the small country’s political landscape.
“Nobody wants to see Unionism losing seats or influence through division”, he said, referencing the potential splitting of votes if Reform were to field candidates. “Perhaps they could work together in conjunction with all Unionist parties here to maximise the Unionist vote and turnout. Providing resources and manpower to help the cause could only be a good thing but it would have to be a very tight arrangement entered into by all participants in good faith”. There is clearly some tension remaining following the falling-out between the TUV and Reform UK last year: “I would imagine [the TUV] would be cautious given what happened at the last election”.
For unionists, especially those opposed to the Northern Ireland Protocol, there is definitely space for Reform to occupy
However, they are under no illusion that some stronger voices in Northern Ireland would be unwelcome. “Northern Ireland has at this time a mandatory coalition form of government which means that the largest Unionist party and Nationalist party have guaranteed right to seats at the heart of government and the Executive table. It is important to have strong voices of dissent and opposition to the parties in government”. For unionists, especially those opposed to the Northern Ireland Protocol, there is definitely space for Reform to occupy; my source stated that Reform could “provide a political home for Unionists who are opposed to the Protocol but do not have fundamental religious and social views on things like abortion and same sex marriage”.
Across the wider unionist spectrum, the outlook is not so rosy for the more right-leaning parties. Ryan Warren, a candidate in the last General Election for the modestly liberal Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), commented that if Reform were to field any candidates in Northern Ireland it may pose an existential threat to the likes of the TUV.
“Reform standing candidates in Northern Ireland will only add to the congestion on Unionism’s right”, he said. “The TUV already occupies that space, while the [Democratic Unionist Party] keeps one eye over its shoulder, trying to straddle both sides.” The UUP, Warren says, aligning more towards the centre-left on matters such as immigration and social issues, would likely not be affected much by a potential Reform decision to stand in Northern Ireland.
In a similar view to that of the TUV representative above, Warren noted that the best thing Reform could do to make Northern Ireland work is simply to help out the current unionist parties. “Reform’s most constructive contribution to Northern Ireland would be to support existing parties, or perhaps act as an honest broker in the debate around Unionist realignment”, he remarked, but did not believe this was a route that Farage would take. “He is known to be close with certain figures in the DUP and has already undermined the TUV in the past, despite it being the party that aligns most closely with Reform’s stated principles. His approach seems more focused on profile and disruption than on building a united or coherent political movement in Northern Ireland.”
It is, of course, not only unionists in Northern Ireland who oppose immigration and may align with Reform on more issues — the right-wing Irish republican party Aontú poll at around 1 per cent of votes in Northern Ireland despite only fielding candidates in a fraction of seats — but it is much more likely. Parties operating on both sides of the border in Ireland see widely differing attitudes towards immigration when comparing north and south. A recent poll in the Irish times found that Sinn Féin, a democratic socialist party operating in both Northern Ireland and the Republic, saw 61 per cent of voters believe that immigrants are good for the economy and culture in Northern Ireland; this figure drops to 33 per cent in the Republic of Ireland.
Could Reform pick up some votes from those on the nationalist side in Northern Ireland who feel their concerns are not being listened to? Warren thinks so: “if Reform promised not to designate as Unionist or Nationalist in the Northern Ireland Assembly, it might be able to offer itself as a home for conservative-minded people in the [Catholic, Nationalist, Republican] community … Perhaps Reform could break down the Orange and Green barriers within this community and impact Nationalism just as much [as Unionism].”
Reform UK have only just begun to delve into politics in Northern Ireland, dipping their toe in the water to see if it’s warm enough to wade into. It may be some time before we see what the Party’s plans are, and whether or not the electorate would be receptive to a new entrant into the battle royale that is Northern Irish politics, especially one whose views on the defining issue for most of the country, green or orange, are not yet clear. We will have to bide our time here, and gaze across the water towards Great Britain, wondering whether this little wave will collapse, or turn into a tsunami.
